tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post4019773022150315478..comments2023-11-03T09:17:54.879-04:00Comments on The Perplexed Investor: When Do Stock Market Booms Occur?Leisa♠http://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-42723558966291257612007-04-28T13:50:00.000-04:002007-04-28T13:50:00.000-04:00This is an interesting article. Thanks for sharing...This is an interesting article. Thanks for sharing it. I like reading and exploring another site that offers insightful analysis of many so-called facts and other myths about the market at <BR/><BR/>http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/<BR/><BR/>I particularly like their "Guru Grades" area which ranks many experts against their published writings.<BR/><BR/>Take care.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-89276537478955817652007-04-28T06:05:00.000-04:002007-04-28T06:05:00.000-04:00The Easterling book is excellent. Crestmont's numb...The Easterling book is excellent. Crestmont's numbers on average returns for the Dow versus compounded returns is an eye opener. All investors should memorize this. <BR/><BR/>Leisa, you keep bemoaning your bearishness. Losses KILL returns. If you have a full cycle left before you withdraw your long term investment monies, there is no logic in rueing the "loss" of short term gains. None. In the NEAR UNIVERSAL majority of cases, it is all given back. Every penny. All you have to do is look at the charts. <BR/><BR/>Everyone thinks that The Bear of 2000-02 was a one off event. Wall Street certainly wants you to. No, it was caused by an 18 year bull that went parabolic in TMT and large cap growth. Even if it hadn't gone parabolic, a Bear would have ensued and 50% of the gains would have been given back on average. Again, the charts say so.<BR/><BR/>This recovery rally has been a very weak bull market. Why? Conditions are not right. Certainly the growth is not organic. Normally you would see three years or so of 20+% gains to kick off the bull. Not this one because PEs never got back to trend even after 3 years of declines! They were interrupted by unbelievable policy stimulus. It continues today. <BR/><BR/>You are correct that monetary policy is STILL too accomodative. That is why the Fed Governors trotted out those comments late last year and early this about flexible targeting. THAT was the signal that they could not control inflation here and they knew it. A big tipoff for those who were listening.<BR/><BR/>This is a gamesmanship market. Shortsqueezing, pumping and dumping, relentless index arbitrage. It disgusts me. Pure bacchanalia. But I am long and wishing it would end because I am positioned to outperform BIG TIME on a decline. Until then I must share Grantham's temporary "pain" of underperforming the indices but outperforming on a risk adjusted basis. Right now I am getting 2/3 of the gains but a decline would scarcely touch me if I have this figured right.<BR/><BR/>MarkMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-8805003173127031712007-04-27T22:02:00.000-04:002007-04-27T22:02:00.000-04:00MarkM gives us some examples of historical compari...MarkM gives us some examples of historical comparisons as well. I provided the GMO website in my previous post. I hope that you check it out.Leisa♠https://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-29982319891330002062007-04-27T21:09:00.000-04:002007-04-27T21:09:00.000-04:00I forgot to mention that he has a website.The char...I forgot to mention that he has a website.<BR/><BR/>The charts here on historical stock market returns are particularly interesting: they are not as high as people think.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/yn7swlrussell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-9961546959931441312007-04-27T16:56:00.000-04:002007-04-27T16:56:00.000-04:00Russell--I should have known that you would have a...Russell--I should have known that you would have already memorized the paper! The Easterling book looks good. I think that every investor needs to understand these cycles; which is why I frequently send folks to Dagnino's site.<BR/><BR/>Thanks very much for this reference.Leisa♠https://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-59219596829226474372007-04-27T16:38:00.000-04:002007-04-27T16:38:00.000-04:00I have used that paper as backup for a variety of ...I have used that paper as backup for a variety of arguments about current market conditions.<BR/><BR/>It also dovetails in well with "Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles" by Ed Easterling. This book (along with your Zurich Illuminati Book?) is also found over on Barry's list.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/22c8lv<BR/><BR/>Note the importance of inflation. It is one of the reasons that a strong economy does not always correlate with a strong market.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.com