tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post544930305453250497..comments2023-11-03T09:17:54.879-04:00Comments on The Perplexed Investor: Something for Underneath your Hat: FaberLeisa♠http://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-35569920189685648922008-11-12T15:24:00.000-05:002008-11-12T15:24:00.000-05:00Hi Nice--good to see you back. The market is not ...Hi Nice--good to see you back. The market is not being 'nice' today. <BR/><BR/>Too many pundits had a poor grasp of liquidity v. solvency arguments. Cheap just gets cheaper. <BR/><BR/>This is price discovery--and it ain't pretty! GS being grabbed in the shorts by the shorts and shaken handily.Leisa♠https://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-80720272111133919252008-11-12T12:23:00.000-05:002008-11-12T12:23:00.000-05:00Just popped back to check in...Have been sidetrack...Just popped back to check in...<BR/><BR/>Have been sidetracked with other activities past 10 days..<BR/><BR/>Looks like the Market was program traded down over the bond holiday<BR/>(F M T) (ie: money moved into bonds last Fri ahead of the GM spectacle)<BR/><BR/>Also seems to me that with the government transition - perhaps all the 'planners' are not on the same side now... adds to uncertainty<BR/><BR/>Can't see the market having anymore lame rallies on bailouts anymore either.<BR/><BR/>Paulson seems focused on the bond market and credit markets with his TARP stuff - stock market is probably of little consequence at this point.<BR/><BR/>What he and everyone fails to mention is why portions of the bond market have stopped working - and why he changed tactics after getting the 700B....<BR/><BR/>It is not because of a 'lack of confidence' - it is because of insolvency.<BR/><BR/>Notice how fast the market dropped after the bankers got their 'bailout' to plug the holes in the derivative market created by LEH/AIG? <BR/><BR/>Once the bankers got their money - the prop on the market was removed.. pretty sad<BR/><BR/>--<BR/><BR/>Also, every advisor, newsletter writer, commodity guru, talking head - keeps saying buy..<BR/><BR/>So many averaging down..<BR/><BR/>Persistent bullisness into a declining market is always a red flag to me - or have traders got smarter?<BR/><BR/>I'd rather see more 'throwing in the towel'<BR/><BR/>And what happened to trade the trend? (the trend is down)<BR/><BR/>However, optimism is borne out of pessimism - and fear will turn to greed..<BR/><BR/>And things do look more favorable today - with Oil nearing the $55 level<BR/><BR/>The drop in gas prices will do a heck of a lot more than any useless stimulus package.<BR/><BR/>So let's watch the US dollar - in particular the OCT 27th level<BR/>(Notice that the day before the election and on Fri when Obama was speaking - they let the dollar drop to give the markets a kick?)<BR/><BR/>Other than value buyers - a falling US Dollar is probably the markets fuel now... <BR/><BR/>Taking a stab at a few longs today with a longer term horizon<BR/>... and removing some of the short term shorts/hedges<BR/><BR/>Still very cautions - but like the fact that the market is trading down - and I cant' see any reason why we won't make new lows on some markets... still surprised more aren't calling for a continued decline.<BR/><BR/>So I await to be proven wrong...<BR/><BR/>Let someone else pick the bottom - they seem to be obsessed with calling bottoms - it could be today, tomorrow, next week, next spring.. <BR/><BR/>I'll take whatever the market gives...<BR/><BR/>good luck all<BR/><BR/>nice<BR/><BR/>(btw Leisa you were correct about how the Insurance co's would be affected- even MET - Snoopy can't be happy LOL - 'nice' call)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com