tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post8544849646877174719..comments2023-11-03T09:17:54.879-04:00Comments on The Perplexed Investor: A. M. Post:Leisa♠http://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-24349804892054645452008-07-25T16:23:00.000-04:002008-07-25T16:23:00.000-04:00Enjoy your vacation. You've earned it!Enjoy your vacation. You've earned it!Leisa♠https://www.blogger.com/profile/10237875938400587600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-73669271568900470122008-07-25T16:10:00.000-04:002008-07-25T16:10:00.000-04:00Surprised to see the Semi Index back down to it's ...Surprised to see the Semi Index back down to it's yearly lows this week - despite falling oil prices..<BR/><BR/>Many stocks that should be moving up now as oil falls have not - so at the moment they don't trust that the fall in oil continues.<BR/><BR/>Other than a continuation of the recent market moves - one possibility is that everything grinds up again one last time into August expiration - before a final move down this Fall in which everything goes down.<BR/><BR/>...<BR/><BR/>Well,<BR/>I'm off now - for a vacation - gotta spend all those recent 'activedollars'! <BR/><BR/>'nice' to have spent some time here on Leisa's blog the past few months...<BR/><BR/>niceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35316766.post-57784912358628861452008-07-25T13:13:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:13:00.000-04:00Since we hit Oil in the $122 range this a.m. - eve...Since we hit Oil in the $122 range this a.m. - every little pull back in the price of oil since the move off the $122 area - has had strong buying in the Oil stocks today (so far)...<BR/><BR/>At the moment probably more so due to the fact that those buying the dip all week in commodity stocks are down and many probably washed out yesterday short-term - so we had a shortage of sellers this a.m.<BR/><BR/>Not one for picking bottoms - but could be a counter trade here I guess to work off the oversold...<BR/>but I would rather trade with what is trying to go up.<BR/><BR/>Let someone else pick the bottom and confirm that the trend up in oil stocks is going to reassert itself.<BR/><BR/>In fact, we are at the trend line today for Oil's big run which started in March.<BR/><BR/>A strong confirmed break of this trend line over the next weeks could be bullish for the markets...<BR/>(or at least a 'stabilization' in the oil price' could be bullish)<BR/><BR/>That being said though - oil does have a strong seasonality in Aug/Sep... and already all the oil analysts are saying we are within days of a bottom in energy prices.<BR/><BR/>However I wonder if the battle now <BR/>in terms of whether oil goes up or continues down - will be less a battle between buyers and sellers - and more having to do with these Hedge Funds and others caught up in the oil market and how they have to unwind their stuff??<BR/><BR/>--<BR/><BR/>Also I would imagine that the large effort to elevate the financial sector last week was done so that "recapitalizations" could occur...<BR/><BR/>So too large a drop back in the prices of those financial stocks will have made the entire intervention last week a complete waste of time.<BR/><BR/>USD's been pretty steady after those horrendous econ numbers the past 2 days.<BR/><BR/>niceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com