Daily Sector Snapshot: 01/19/11

Given yesterday's rumbling across all sectors, I wanted to provide you with a quick snapshot.  Here are the sectors with their respective changes as well as the best and worse (click all images for enhanced viewing).

And I want to close with a 60 minute chart on the total stock market index.

I will providing these updates daily...something that I used to do years ago--and something that I hope that you will find adds value to your own due diligence.

Weekly Sector Report | 01/14/11

The broad market advanced .73%.  Much is being made of how January starts as a great prognosticator for the balance of the year.  Statistics for the first week in January and what that bodes for the entire market abound, along with analogs, ideologues and all manner of other 'stuff'.  History repeats, rhymes, and more often reminds that we never step into the same river twice, but most times our feet will get wet, sometimes the river has run dry and sometimes we just might drown.  I find that to be a useful mental model as an antidote for over generalizations and wild prognostications.

Here is how the major sectors performed (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

From the subsectors, here is a view of the best/worst performing areas:

I have created a chart book for you which you can find here.

Asset Managers is the second best subsector.  Let's take a look at the sector chart:

 There are many constructive charts in this space (so long as the market remains hospitable!).  I created a chart book for you for the names in this space for those interested.  You can find it here.

Let's close with looking at the broad market chart. I'm including both a weekly and a daily chart.

The weekly chart remains in the overbought area.  On the daily chart, the daily is making a new high without the oscillator--a bit of negative divergence. As you can see from the broad sectors, money is moving into new sector leadership...and so long as this broad index moves up, that also denotes new money coming in.

I wish you good trading this week.

Weekly Sector Report | 01/07/11

The first week of the new year saw the broad market index advance 1.05%, and some big winners and losers among the sectors.  Let's take a look (click on images for enhanced viewing):

Automobiles and Parts was the big sector winner.  GM (+5.75%) and F (+8.8%) were big contributors along with  LEA (+7.18%) and MGA (14.83%).  HOWEVER, the auto parts stores had a drag of a week. Big sector losers were Gold Miners and Platinum and precious metals--largely a reaction to the USD's strength.  Here are the top/bottom performers (using sub-sectors):

Home Construction experienced a surge with KBH's good news.  This sector is heavily shorted and the bears got caught with their hands in the honey jar.  I created a chart book for you with the short interest and the weekly charts.

Let's take a look at the broad market index:

There is some negative divergence between the oscillator and the price action; however, the daily chart is not extended relative to the trend line.  Earnings will be coming out soon and will feed the charts with new information.  As we know, it is not the news, but the market's reaction to news that is instructive.

For your weekly research, I've prepared a chart book for you on the major sectors as well as some weekly change in price and short interest on subsectors. You may download it here (9.1mb).

Disclosure:  I have no positions in any stocks mentioned.

740

I'm not a snoop. I swear. But my daughter has used my computer to log onto Facebook, and the cookie must be there. I go to websites, and I'm recognized as one who I'm not. I can be a 22 year old if I like. But, I have no desire to be a 22 year old, nor the need to express my 'like' or 'dislike' at the touch of a button. Such is the power of Facebook and other social venues that relieves us of the ability of thinking about or countering 'stuff' with well-considered points and counterpoints. Why bother? Just click an f'n button for goodness sake. Take a shortcut.

I'm not on Facebook. My daughter, who is 27 years younger than I am, has 740 friends. I only found this out because it was staring me in the face on my computer. I might have 7 friends. Of those 7 friends, there are maybe 2 that I would confess my darkest secrets to, but I'd split them up. It is never a good thing to tell any one person all your deepest, darkest secrets. One must have proper diversification.

740.... It is a staggering number in its breadth. It is the metric of voyeurism that we have now achieved in our society where anyone with some passing molecule that abrades against our own in cyberspace is our 'friend.'

Last evening, I spent the evening with my girlfriend's family. She's my friend of 34 years. Her father is dying. She now lives in Northern Virginia; so I don't see her much. She is down to help her mother and sister care for their dying father.

I took some food and wine by. But we always catch up once a year, and it is always as if were were 17 again. We sat by the table--she, her mother and I. Her sister, 10 years younger, came by a little later. I told these people, who I have known since I was 16, how important they were to me in my life. They were kind to me when my home life was in tumult, and I needed their kindness. Their kindness was, in fact, a life preserver.

Their father, a wonderful man, who loves his family, so full of life and joy, is now so weak he cannot get out of bed. He has metastatic liver cancer, an unwelcome residual from his prostate cancer ten years ago.

They woke him up, and I was able to visit with him briefly. Still handsome: his face was smooth, and his white hair thick. I told him he was still the most handsome man I knew. I meant it. I held his hand, kissed his brow and stroked his hair. I thanked him for being so kind to me when I needed kindness.

Another dear man in my life who is 90 is also nearing the end of his life. I helped him write his obituary. We spent the a couple of weeks trading drafts--to say it just right. To codify a life of 90 years--a life filled with accomplishment and joy--to just a few paragraphs is an impossible task. But it is a process with deep meaning, great vitality and appropriate reverence, as it is the honoring of a life by giving voice to just a few highlights--reminder that our lives are to be lived rather than recounted.

Both of these men were influential in my life beyond my ability to measure much less say. Both are slipping away, as we all must do in due time.

I don't have 740 friends. I may not even have 7. But these two men are quite dear to me--being an influence and support in my life when it was important. I will not have the regret of having these two pass from my grasp without grasping their hand and kissing their cheek and telling both how important they were in my life.

The frontier of friendship has no horizon anymore. Oh, I have on-line friendships, and I cherish them. But even then, it doesn't approach 740--or a one-tenth of that.

If acquaintances are now friends, what is friendship? Who are friends? Friends love you and forgive you. I don't think that anyone has 740 friends to love and forgive them. And in return, you love and forgive your friends. You'd need a bountiful cup to love and forgive 740 people virtues and follies. If you can't...well, they are relegated to acquaintances.

I'm happy to have a few friends. I'm blessed to have had people in my life to mentor and inspire me. I'm sorry to have two friends who are holding tenuously to life. I'm honored to have known them. I'm thankful that I shared my appreciation of their friendship with them. And best of all, there were no shortcuts. The badge of friendship is earned with compassion, understanding and forgiveness--and sewn with the threads of tears and laughter. There are no buttons to press to convey those important things. There are no shortcuts to friendship. And when they slip away, the pain we feel is a reminder of their authenticity.

There is no greater charge in life than stepping up when asked the question: Who can you be a friend to?

Weekly Sector Report | 12/31/10

The last week of the year saw the broad market index eek out a .03% increase. However, we know that the action is in the sectors, so let's see which cylinders are firing in the market's motor (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

Basic Resources, Oil and Gas and Telecommunications were the winners.  Healthcare, Personal and Household Goods and Travel and Leisure were the losers for the week.  Taking a look at subsectors, here are the 10 top/bottom performers:

I was interested in the Mobile Telecommunications sector's performance.  There are some interesting chart set ups in that sub-sector.  I created a chart book for you with the Communications Equipment tickers which you can find here . You can also visit FINVIZ to get a deeper profile for the names in this sector by clicking here.

Short Interest:  Here are the sub-sectors with the highest short interest.  Note that short interest is updated 2x per month.

To close, I want to present a chart of DWCF, which is the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index...it includes all US listed stocks that have a readily available quote.  You can see a linkable version of this chart here.

I created a chart book for you, which you can access here.

Best wishes for the New Year!

Beginning Anew | If Not Now, When?

A New Year!  And conflating the first two words, we get, "anew."

–adverb
1. over again; again; once more: to play the tune anew.
2. in a new form or manner: to write the story anew.

Source: Dictionary.com

The New Year is a natural demarcation line between the past and the future. However, it is worth noting, that the only "time space" in which we can take action is the present. There is not a thing we can do now to change the past, and whatever we imagine for ourselves in the future will not come to pass unless we take steps now to ease that unfolding.  Our being more strong, happy, rich, compassionate, learned, skillful (pick your area) will not happen if we do not make the decision today to take action toward that goal.

In conversation with a colleague some years ago, he was relating to me a conversation he had with his son in making decisions.  He then stated a very simple question he had posed to his son:  

If not now, when?

Over the years, when I am tempted to dawdle, dither and defer--the three "D's" that contribute to the deplorable state of do-nothingness--I invoke this mantra.  It has amazing power to spur action.

Our resolutions, then, are a time for us to begin anew.  The product of our introspective efforts during this contemplative time requires three things.

Thing 1:  Set a goal/objective
Thing 2:  Concretize the needful things that must happen to reach our goal (identify what actions/steps are needed when).
Thing 3:  Measure our progress toward achieving those steps.

I will add Thing 4:  Adopt a reproachful mantra to chant when you are too tired, sick, bored, busy or stressed:  "If not now, when?"

I promise you that if you invoke that mantra, you will empower yourself.  As the queen of the three dreadful D's,  dawdling, dithering and deferring, I can state that those words have real power. Yes, it is mildly coercive that question, "If not now, when?"

I believe that there is a range of people in life that fit with in the polarities of people who catapult themselves into action sans thinking and those who cocoon themselves within thinking sans action. I preach to you (and myself!) today as one who is occasionally rooted in the polarity of thinking sans action. 

I'm not sure which is worse, action sans thinking or thinking sans action, but I do know this:  Thinking + action = a higher probability of a successful outcome than either of the other two choices. Self discipline is the antidote to most of the ills accompanied by either of those polarities.  Yes, this is a soap box post, but I am preaching mostly to myself.

I resurrected my resolutions from 2008.  I consider these resolutions (revised date of 2011) a balanced scorecard for my life.  Having turned 50 this year, I do feel that I've crossed (or tripped) over a threshold of sorts.

If you want to peek under the hood of those, you can do so here. It isn't finished, but I did want to share the idea with you. Woefully, I'm one of those people who requires a resolution under the category of "Fun". 

The software that I used to create this list is FreeMind.  You can find it here. It is free software, and you can download it at the link without fear of harming your computer.  It is a simple, yet powerful program that will help you harness your creativity and transform your ideas into actions.

I wish you a Happy New Year--a year filled with successful transformation of your ideas into actions, and may those actions yield their intended consequences.  And if not....may you have the flexibility and alacrity to adjust accordingly.

Winter Wonderland

The snow is still coming down.  Always a special type of quiet.  The dogs went out for a romp.  How they love the snow.    Bird feeders make good (though unintentional) sport for bird dogs.  I finally had to bring Daisey in.  She had ice balls on her feet, sides and her legs.

The birds are a bit frantic.  We have grackles (or blackbirds, I cannot tell which) that have come in in droves. They are not molesting the other birds, so everyone has something to eat.   Daisey was making the rounds to the three feeders, yipping and having a big time.  The feeders are far enough apart and she makes enough noise that the birds eat just fine. We have juncos, tufted tit mice, mourning doves, purple finches, gold finches (though not gold yet), cardinals, downey woodpeckers, and nut hatches.  However, once she hunkered down in the snow at one feeder, it was time for her to be herded inside.  She and the birds needed a break.

I needed a break too. It is cold out.  I shoveled the sidewalk this morning.  Mark was out with the snow plow on the Wheelhorse.  He's been working on that a couple of days, so it was good to give it a maiden run.  I cleaned the vehicles off.  With holiday prep, I'm severely off my exercise regimen.  Tromping through the snow, shoveling and sweeping was good energy expenditure.  With all the holiday meals and temptations (that I've not bothered to resist), my energy cup overfloweth...so energy expenditure is a good thing.

Weekly Sector Report | 12/25/10

Santa has not dispensed many lumps of coal for the market--however short sellers in strong industries are likely dragging a heavy sack.  Last week the broad market index ($DWCF on Stockcharts) when up 1.06%.  Here is the chart (click all images to make larger):

Let's take a look under the market hood and see how the broad sectors performed:

Now for a look at a drill down of the top/bottom 10 performers:

I have created a chart book for you.  You can download it here  (8.5mb).

Almond Toffee and Stock Picking

We have pretty simple Christmas's in Leisa-land.  None of us needs anything; none that we know need anything; and plenty of people who we don't know have great needs.  We like to focus on the latter group.  However, for the people we know and love, I like to give a gift from the kitchen.  In past years it has been a cycle of  cinnamon rolls for Christmas morning, cookies, or homemade candy.

At a nearby salvage store, I stumbled upon some terrific items.  I don't go there very often, but I elected to take a peek before going on a foraging mission to other stores.  My, my, my!  First, I found a 10 3/4" ScanPan.  I picked it up and said, "Wow, what a great pan!"  It had a $20 price tag on it.  I bought one.  They also had some great 2 qt Rubbermaid food service containers.  My idea, then, germinated from seeing this great deal on these containers (2 for $3.99--they are @ for $12-13 at Sam's).  They are fabulous in the kitchen.  I decided that I would use these utilitarian containers to house almond toffee.  I also found some other wonderful things to assemble as a great gift bag.

Upon returning home, I Googled the ScanPan.  The cheapest I found it was for $132.  I went back the next day and bought the remaining 5 pans.  Such a deal!  One goes to a trading friend, one to my Stepmom/Dad, one to my sister, one to a neighbor, and then an extra one.  It is one of the finest  fry pans I have used--and the coating is ceramic titanium, not Teflon. Beautiful balance and superior cooking performance--though non-stick, it sears! I may just KEEP the extra one.

Now to my candy making saga.....   It has been quite a long time since I have made candy. Like most baking endeavors, 'stuff' needs to be precise--most particularly method and temperature.  I should have known that a recipe that said "You don't need a candy thermometer; the almonds will tell you when your toffee is ready, because the skins will pop."   Cranberries do that, so I didn't suspect these instructions.  After two failed batches, I not only suspected, but I indicted the recipe, sent it to jail and threw away the key.

Clearly I was in need of a time out to reflect and to research.  Like most things that you are researching on the internet (cooking, stock picking, who to marry, when to plant tomatoes) there are many, many ways to approach your objective with a thread of universality.  Even temperature so as to not 'shock' the mixture (which causes the butter/sugar to separate) and do not attempt on a humid day seemed to be two important threads.  Most importantly, these were the two things that I could pinpoint as problematic and this was confirmed by my abysmal success to failure ratio of 1:2.  Was it more humid than I thought?  or was I just a toffee-making dunce?  Likely a bit of both.

For a couple of failed attempts, I was able to grind the failure into the most decadent ice cream/cereal topper you can imagine.  You CAN make a silk purse out of a sow's ear it seems.  There were two batches that literally just had to be thrown away--but one of those could have been ground up.  I was too desolate with my back-to-back failures to be creative at that point.  One of my failures included leaving out 1 whole cup of sugar.  Funny thing, it still turned out great, just not as dense. Anyway, the cost of my ingredients in my failures were still less than had I taken a cooking class.  (Rationalization is a great thing!). 


I have MacGyver-like tendencies.  Because temperature is so important, and most candy thermometers are clunky and hard to read (plus mine will not clip to my pot side), I used my digital thermometer--the one with the probe and the snaky metal.  If you don't have one, you should!  To keep it fastened to the pan, I have a nifty Trudeau spoon clip that was gifted to me last Christmas.


There is quite a bit of stirring required in making this toffee.  A wooden spoon yields a mean blister to hands unused to such work (mine!).  The probe needs to be out of the stirring thoroughfare. This little clip held the probe in just the right place.  I wrapped the lead wire a couple of times around the top to keep it snug against the pan and at the right depth and connected it to the body.  I placed the body in a small glass bowl so I could easily see the read out.   A nice little gift for the cook in your life.

I melted a mix of Valrhona milk and Guanaja bittersweet chocolate feves and then brushed them over the surface with a silicon brush.  Just a very thin layer to not compete with the toffee.  I took a picture of it for you.  Interested in the recipe, I succeeded with?  You can find it here.

So happily, I've compiled a bag of needful things:  spicy brown mustard, Pompeian Red Wine Vinegar, Indalo Extra Virgin Olive oil, Chinese Detox Tea, Praline Topper, and Almond Toffee and a 2 qt Rubbermaid refrigerator box.   A very nice combination of things that will nurture the body! I made gift tags from my souped-up Santa picture of Lucy! It is nice to remember this special girl who will be gone 4 years this January.

The best gift is to give something of yourself to another:  time, love, compassion--and a helping hand when needed to those in need. We did all of those things, to include helping my daughter sponsor a family at her school in great need.

This is my tree with Wyatt underneath from last year. Because of my many failures at Almond Toffee (but those failures were overcome!), this might be the only tree I see!

I wish you the best for the Holidays and for the New Year.

P. S......What does any of this have to do with Stock Picking?!  Read, research, do, fail, reflect. . . rinse and repeat. . . read,  research, do, cut your losses, take a sow's ear, make a silk purse, build your skills, build your confidence, use the right tools, improvise when you have to, and above all.......don't burn yourself.

There truly is nothing new under the sun, and the same threads run through all of our endeavors--no matter what we do.

Weekly Sector Report | 12/17/10*

The total stock market index ($DWCF on Stockcharts.com) advanced .33%.  Beneath the surface there was much activity in the sectors.  Here's the weekly graph (click all images to make larger):

Financial services had a lousy weekly largely due to V and MA getting their legs cut out from under them with the proposed regulations on capping debit card fees.  To get a view of the magnitude of the market's response on these two charts click here.

The WSJ Industry page as a great snapshot of the best/worst performing industries.  Here's the snapshot for this week:

You can choose from multiple time frames to see this type of performance.  These types of relative looks will help build a mental map for you to gauge market action. Click here to see how this easy visual tool works.

I had a reader ask me a question about being able to find low-risk entry points using these sector reports.  There are a number of FREE on-line tools to aid the individual investor who wants to do his/her own research. Ultimately we want to be in the industries that are attracting money relative to other industries, and be in the strongest performing stocks (attracting money relative to its sector siblings).  By clicking on any of the industry links, you can also see a snapshot of the strongest performing stocks in that sector.  (You can also do this easily in FINVIZ by clicking here. )


As steel was a great performing industry this past week, I wanted to share a couple of charts, the weekly and the daily, with you.

WEEKLY Steel Chart

Daily Steel Chart 

On both the weekly and the daily chart, steel has been breaking out and then pulling back to consolidate in a strong confluence of moving averages.   Interested in seeing who's on the homecoming court at the steel sector dance?  You can do so by clicking here.  There are a number of ways to find strong stocks, this just happens to be my way which appeals to my DNA and contributes to my understanding of the overall market.


Time to pull back out for the bigger picture.  Let's take a look at the total market index:

We are fast approaching a volume bar (see dotted line) that should we surpass it, the gravity of volume overhang will dissipate.  What is interesting to me is that we often come to these important technical junctures that are coincidental with important news junctures--the next big news cycle being 4th quarter earnings and of course the report from the retail sales.

I have a good friend that reminds me, "There are no coincidences."

I have prepared for you a chart book with the weekly and daily sector charts.  You can find it here. It is a large file, so be patient with the download.

Perplexed? Flummoxed! Creating a No Dithering Zone

You can tell by the title this is going to be a mish-mash post!

I was thinking over the weekend how far I have come in understanding the markets better.  I have put in quite a bit of seat time and have paid a handsome tuition (sometimes repeating a class) to learn the market's lessons. I'm still learning, and my tuition is much cheaper!  I was pondering about whether or not I had actually outgrown the name of my blog (a notion quickly dispelled this weekend in looking at my chart books!).  

First, an aside.  Beginning this endeavor to understand the markets has taken me down the road that started with being unconsciously incompetent.  While unconscious incompetence in driving can cause great harm to one's body, such a state in undertaking the markets can cause a little corporeal damage to the portfolio.

There is a terrific article at Market Masters (and other great stuff worth reading) that talks about the 4 stages of competence from a trading perspective.  

1. Unconscious Incompetence
2. Conscious Incompetence
3. Conscious Competence
4. Unconscious Competence

I think I'm a 2.75 on that scale.  Over the weekend, I was reminded how aptly named my blog is.  As I was going through my detailed subsector report, I found a bushel of sectors above their pre-crash highs:

• Apparel makers
• Clothing and accessories
• Broad line retailers
• Commercial vehicles and trucks
• Computer hardware
• Electronic equipment
• FOOTWEAR!!!!
• Industrial Engineering, machinery, suppliers, transportation (4 sectors)
• Personal goods
• Railroads
• Restaurants and bars
• Specialty chemicals
• Specialty retailers
• Tobacco
• Travel and Leisure
• Trucking
• Tourism
• Trucking
• Waste disposal

To say that I'm flummoxed as to why there are so many retail sectors and industrial sectors is an understatement. (As I write the BBY has missed).  The list is 22 of 147 subsectors (remember that folks slice/dice things differently!)  I use the Dow Jones sectors from Stock Charts that closely approximates the WSJ's industry page.

Besides finding a way to complain while giving you that list of sectors, that project of sitting down on Sunday by the fire with my book of charts reminded me of another important lesson.  (Can you tell I'm in a reflective mood?).  Naturally I have to yammer a bit before stating the lesson.

In 2009, the day after Thanksgiving, I elected to do a sector study of gold miners.  I spent the entire day looking at charts and profiles of miners.  I believed that they had bottomed.  What did I do?  I dithered.  I've come to believe that nothing is more dangerous than dithering.  I'll devote an entire post to dithering, so I'll spare you having to trudge through more words on this. But there are a couple of points to close with:

• The charts DO tell us what the price action is over time.  And the sectors' price action in relation to others tell us where money is going. Our job is ultimately to put our money in places where it will increase.
• Price action is neither valid or invalid relative to our opinion about it--it just is.  We either choose to cultivate habits that (1) allow us to discover such price action (our research) and (2) act in accordance with the evidential matter, or we choose to dither.
• Dithering is not a helpful trait.  We must remember that the market will not pay us for NOT taking a risk.  Seeing constructive price and volume action and responding by dithering because (1) the action is not in accord with our opinion, and/or (2) we want more information, more certainty, more people supporting our decision means that we've given up opportunity for 'certainty'.  In fact, that means that we have increased the risk in our position as whatever news we were waiting for is also commonly known and likely priced in.

So being perplexed, or worse, flummoxed, are only bad things when those emotions are allowed to occlude our powers of observation or promote a continuing state of inertia--either to buy OR to sell. Every year I get a little bit better at holding these emotions in abeyance.  The blog name must stick--and it is never good to wander too far from one's roots.

I want to close with a quote from George Soros that I keep under my "Wisdom" tab.  It is something worth remembering when what we 'know' v. what we 'see' are at odds.

“Economic history is a never-ending series of
episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the
path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise
is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."

Volatility Squeeze Candidate: PDO

Wandering around in the charts, I found this set up on PDO.  First a chart (click to enlarge), then some bullet points:

What I like about the chart:

• volatility is very, very narrow. The stock is gearing up to make a move
• ULT is moving up; that suggests to me that the move will be up.
• Significant volume @ price bar where price has been accumulating.
• Some constructive volume over time.

What I don't like about the chart:

• Very, very thin volume.  However, that can be a boon for this type of set up.  Volume will need to come in to make this stock move.
• Bad news could make this stock fall out of bed.

What I like about the financial profile(1):

• Very strong balance sheet
• Profitable, but goosed with gain from an asset sale.

(1) I don't do in depth financial reviews; very cursory.  This trade is primarily a speculative technical trade.

Position:  I entered a long position @ 4.72 today.

Weekly Sector Report | 12/10/10

I've been featuring this chart weekly to allow a more 'bird's eye view of the broader market--not just S&P, not just the Dow, not just the NYSE and not just the Nasdaq (Click on all images to make larger).

I highlighted the prominent volume bars.  To my eye, there is some resistance ahead.  But the indexes are made of sectors and sectors of stocks.  As I was reminded in re-reading Mamis's "When to Sell", he notes that at any point in time 1/3 of the stocks are moving up, 1/3 moving down and 1/3 are in a sideways pattern.

A little sector rotation can keep the indices in a range, while several sectors can be flip-flopping about. Nevertheless, it is useful to keep the forest in mind while walking through the trees (and trying to avoid the things that slither about and bite us should we not be looking).  Let's take a look at the broad sectors:

The financial services industries have performed very well.  Banks are still borrowing s-t for next to nothing, and a rise in long term interest rates creates more net interest gains for them. TBT, the double short on TLT, has had impressive gains.  (I've traded in and out of in and I'm currently out).  Perhaps the rotation is out of bonds and into financials?  It is a trade that would make some sense and the charts seem to be showing that.

The Wall Street Journal's Industry page is a great place to look at comparative performance among sectors.  You can find that page by clicking here.  It is a public page, so you shouldn't need a subscription.  If I'm wrong about that, please give me some feedback.  Here's a clip from the YTD performance of the financials:

(source WSJ Industry page)

Of the 17.49% increase YTD experienced by Full line Insurance, almost 1/2 of it came from this week alone.  If you are doing some holiday stock shopping, there are many beaten down stocks in those sectors that might warrant a closer look for your investing/trading style.

For this week's chart book, I've elected to create for you an expanded book that includes WEEKLY charts of all of the subsectors (147).  Why?  Because I was looking at these myself, and I was very interested in seeing where each of the sectors were in relation to pre-crash highs.  It is interesting to see several sectors have surpassed that level.   You can access the report  here  .  It is a large download suitable only for fast connections.  I'm including an abbreviated report (without those schedules) here.

Weekly Sector Report | 12/03/10

Last week was a week for the bulls as they managed gains in all sectors. The broad market index was up 2.9%. Here's a look at the weekly sectors at a glance (click on all images to enlarge)

The total stock market index has been flat over the last 4 weeks.  It is both overbought, and it is approaching levels that will have technical and fundamental analysts doing some head scratching.

I'm also including a chart of the $NYA with the advance minus decline 10 day moving average.  It is still pointing upward.  This last advance is with fewer (ema of 400 net new highs) than the last advance (ema of 670 new highs) in early November.

I've created a chart book for you.  As the end of the month was during the week, it includes monthly charts.  It is a large pdf, so please be patient with the download.

Break Out the Snacks! J & J Snack Foods (JJSF)

I was taking a cruise through the snack food universe (through the charts, not the grocery store aisles), and I found this pretty chart that I wanted to share with you of J&J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) (click all images to make larger).

There is much to like about this name both fundamentally and technically (but see longer term chart below).

Technically:

• Beautiful inverse head and shoulders pattern 
• clean breakout at neckline on good 2.33 x relative volume
• clearing of volume@price overhang bars
• caution warranted to wait for a pull back on the overextended price

Fundamentally (check them out on FINVIZ):

• They have a quarterly cash dividend of .1175 up from .1075 (though I don't screen for that)
• Recently beat on earnings
• Great balance sheet (cash, good current ratio, no l-t debt)

I also like to take a step back and look at longer term charts.  Let's look at a monthly chart:

Lots of happy holders in this name!  However, the chart is approaching all time highs; accordingly it would be wise to look at valuations in addition to earnings growth as part of your due diligence to see if it fits with your investment theme. 

Position:  Watch list!

Weekly Sector Report | 11/26/10

An interrupted trading week:  interrupted by our American Thanksgiving tradition, some spit spat between N/S Korea as well as continued concerns about sovereign debt.  The broad market index was down .61% with quite a bit of push and tug in the underlying sectors.  Here's the sector summary (click all images to make larger):

 Banks, Financial Services and Financials were hardest hit.  With the USD strengthening in the wake of these concerns, Basic Materials and Resources also suffered.  Retail stood tall, and the results of Black Friday will certainly impact this sector.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart of the total stock market index:

It was a light volume week due to the holiday, and the market continues to consolidate at this level. It is going to go one way or the other.  Would that I had a crystal ball!  Mine's in shards; perhaps yours is in better shape. 

I want to point out the the lower part of the chart  where I've consolidated two indicators (that show up on the detail charts).  The purple dashed line shows the performance of this index for the time period shown (Jan 07- current).  The broad market is still 20% below those highs.  It is a cogent reminder that "not-losing" is the key to winning.

The market is gathering energy through this consolidation for a move.  I don't mind being marginally committed (a/k/a standing aside) to see which way that might be. If the N/S Korean conflict and the sovereign debt issues get cleared, the move is likely to be up.  If not, a pullback will be in store.

I've prepared a chart book for you which you can access here.  It is a large file, so please be patient with the download.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Of all of the holidays, none is more special to me than Thanksgiving.  Sharing the bounty of the land with loved ones is a act of great love.  I believe that cooks are the ultimate alchemists--transforming one thing into quite another.  While we rely on stocks and broths to enrich our foods, those key elements were really nothing more than eking out the last bit of goodness from vegetables and bones.

Certainly any reading this is far divorced from a marginal existence; however, life on the edge is about getting enough air, nutrition and water to support life systems. Too many in this world live life at the margin.  I often read in the blogosphere about how unfair the markets are and 'if only this, that, the other.'   I find such lamentations surprising.  As much as we would like to wish for life to be fair, it most certainly is not.  Nevertheless, as individuals, we can be agents of equal opportunity 'fairness' on a unit to unit basis.  A unit can be a person, place or thing:  children, rainforests, animals, elderly or any of the other 'units' lacking needful things.

Thanksgiving is the holiday of gratitude.  I believe that a grateful heart is a great, full heart.  A grateful heart does not need things.  Rather, a great, full heart has natural abundance, and within that bounty is generally a singular passion: to share that bounty with others.   So much of the media, particularly the financial media, sputters with 'news' about how wrong things are.  If our bodies are made of what we eat, then surely our minds are made of what we read, see and hear.  The duty of 'fair and balanced' is not so much on what an outlet reports to you (after all they are still just trying to fill and sell advertising space), but rather YOUR acquisition and processing of it.  I'm seeing a surprising amount of stuff so slanted and so oft-quoted (think of your favorite fear mongering site) that it seems to be taken at face value without so much of a whiff of discernment.

I still remember well my conversation with David, the frail, elderly, sharp-as-a-tack man that I met on my way to Las Vegas.  Though physically fragile, he was passionate about staying engaged in things that interested him--investing being one of those things.  (He was on the way to the Money Show!).  I asked about the health of his wife.  He said this to me, and it still resonates today:  "I focus on the things that I still can do; my wife focuses on the things that she cannot do."

You think that I've run off the road and I'm in the weeds again, don't you?  I'm meandering back to the path!  My Thanksgiving wish for you is to embrace the notion of a grateful heart, and the bounty of a great, full heart.  My wish for you is to delight in the sharing of that bounty with others.  While it is is easy to focus on the bad--they do provide good 'stories', there is much to celebrate in this world and in the work of people interested in meaningful change.  Seek out that balance of what is right in the world lest your heart and head become poisoned from the assault of what is wrong with the world.

Though we may feel powerless to change the ills of the world, we most certainly have the power to touch another consciousness in this life.  That touch can alleviate hunger, isolation, fear, or physical discomfort--and it significantly changes the world for that recipient.  Our Thanksgiving table, then, is a way for us to both celebrate and share.  It is a time to reflect, too, on how we can extend the boundaries of that sharing in these times of great need.

My best to you on this important day.

Weekly Sector Report | 11/19/10

The total market index was basically flat at .15% change. Within the total market, banks, other financials and utilities were the most notable underperformers. Below is a graphic of the 23 sectors and the total market index. (Click all images to make larger).

Let's take a look at a WEEKLY chart of Total Stock Market Index that includes the volume@price bars:

The markets continue to work off overbought conditions.  As we saw last week, the market is still very fragile to news that surprises regarding sovereign debt. It is also worth noting that for the first time, bonds and stocks have diverged.  TLT has fallen with a falling stock market.  So while the flight to safety might be in the USD, it is not going into treasuries.

I have created for you a chart book with the daily, weekly sector charts in addition to the table of 148 industries sorted by performance as well as short interest per sector.  It is a large file, so please be patient with the download.  You may access it here.

Weekly Sector Report | 11/12/10

The indices which seemed to defy gravity were reminded that Darwin's rule pertains to both apples and markets. In the DJUS industry universe of 148 (table included in report), only 13 of the 148 industries were positive.

To be sure it was a healthy pullback as the market was overextended. Whether it becomes something more than remains to be seen. There seems to be some issues with Blogger uploader, so I'm unable to upload images into this post.  I regret the inconvenience.

You can review the full report here.

Weekly Sector Report | W/E 11/05/10

The market showed no signs of fatigue last week. The broad market index was up 3.57% with a sweep of sectors positive across the board.  Below is the Weekly Sector profile compared to the broad market index (in blue). (Click to make larger).

Note that the more defensive sectors, healthcare, food/beverage, utilities, are lagging.

Here's a chart of the broad market index (Click to make larger)

Prices are very extended and caution is warranted for longs.  Prices are approaching a heavy volume@ price bar (which I have extended and placed in a dotted outline).  It will be interesting to see how volume/price action react at these levels over the next few weeks.

To facilitate your personal study of the the sectors, I've created a downloadable PDF which contains detail sector information, summary sector information, and chart books for the summary sectors in both weekly and daily format.  It is a large file, so be patient with the download.