Sunday, July 20, 2008

Collected Wisdom

I frequently share with readers quotes, aphorisms and other 'stuff' that I run across. I occurred to me today to treat this as a "Permanent Post" to serve as a ready reference. This is a an ongoing list. If readers have favorites, please post them in the comments to included the source (title, author, publisher, date, page number), and I'll upload them here.




Psychology of the Stock Market G. C. Selden (available for free on Google's Books online); 1912, Fraser Publishing Company 1965;

  • Our big capitalists are seldom entirely out of stocks. They merely have more stocks when prices are low and fewer stocks when prices are high. (p.16)
  • To a great extent we train our judgment to lend itself to our selfish interests. . . . We cannot work for our own interests as in other lines of business--we can only fit our interests to the facts. . . To make the greatest success it is necessary for the trader to forget entirely his own position in he market, his profits or losses, the relation of present prices to the point where he bought or sold, and to fix his thoughts upon the position of the market. (p.57)
  • The great cause of loss in times of panic is the failure of the investor to keep enough of his capital in liquid form. (p. 71)


~~~~~


Historical parallels are likely to be misleading. Every situation is new, though usually composed of familiar elements. Each element must be weighed by itself and the probable result of the combination estimated. In most cases the problem is by no means impossible, but the student must learn to look into the future and to consider the present only as a guide to the future. Extreme prices will come at the time when the news is most emphatic and most widely disseminated. When that point is passed the question must always be, "What next?". (p. 54)
~~~~~
The main point of their argument is that the state of mind of a man short of the market is radically different from the state of mind of one who is long. Their whole study, in such a conversation, is the mental attitude of those interested in the market. If a majority of the volatile class of in-and-out traders are long, many of them will hasten to sell on any sign of weakness and a decline will result. If the majority are short, they will buy on any development of strength and an advance may be expected." (p. 9)




The Book of Five Rings
Miyamoto Musashi
Translated by Thomas Cleary, 1993; 1997 Barnes & Noble Books

~~~~~
Two essential elements of ancient martial and strategic traditions:
  • The first of these basic principles is keeping inwardly calm and clear even in the midst of violent chaos;
  • The second is not forgetting about the possibility of disorder in times order.
~~~~~
Harmony and disharmony in rhythm occur in every walk of life. It is imperative to distinguish carefully between the rhythms of flourishing and the rhythms of decline in every single thing.

~~~~~

  1. Think of what is right and true.
  2. Practice and cultivate the science.
  3. Become acquainted with the arts.
  4. Know the principles of the crafts.
  5. Understand the harm and benefit in everything.
  6. Learn to see everything accurately.
  7. Become aware of what is not obvious.
  8. Be careful even in small matters.
  9. Do not do anything useless.
I found this on line link to another translation which you can find here: http://www.samurai.com/5rings/


The Book of Family Traditions on the Art of War
Yagyu Munenori
Translated by Thomas Cleary, 1993; 1997 Barnes & Noble Books



There is a science to the use of arms. If you try to kill someone without knowing the science, you will probably get killed yourself.


~~~~~


When fighting with enemies, if you get to feeling snarled up and are making no progress, you toss your mood away and think in your heart that you are starting everything anew. As you get the rhythm, you discern how to win. This is "becoming new." (p.46)





On Becoming a Leader
Warren Bennis
1989, Perseus Books

How can you best express you?

The first test is knowing what you want, knowing your abilities and capacities, and recognizing the difference between the two.

The second test is knowing what drives you, knowing what gives you satisfaction, and knowing the difference between the two.

The third test is knowing what your values and priorities are, knowing what the values and priorities of your organization are, and measuring the difference between the two.

The fourth test is - having measured the differences between what you want and what you're able to do, and between what drives you and what satisfies you, and between what your values are and what the organization's values are - are you able and willing to overcome those differences. (pp 123-127)





Here's a quote from George Soros that I first published in November of 2007 courtesy of Isiah 6:4

“Economic history is a never-ending series of
episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the
path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise
is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited."




In the time of war
Raise in yourself the Mind of Compassion
Help living beings
Abandon the will to fight
Wherever there is a furious battle
Use all you might
To keep both sides' strength equal
And then step into the conflict to reconcile.

Vimalakirti Nirdesa


Justin Mamis
When to Sell

From Mamis in "When to Sell"

Knowing where you are in a market cycle is vital to any intelligent market approach.  Sure, you have to weigh what the bears are worried about, but so long as youu have the proper perspective on what has to happen to prove their case--and what has to happen to prove the alternative--you can proceed wisely.  p.98

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Leisa - awesome find that you posted recently http://finviz.com/

Thanks for the perf. by sector link. Took the guided tour and there's lots of useful tools. Especially like the screening and quick thumbnail charts.

r. saunders

Anonymous said...

Thoughts…

-----Stocks-----

We just had the biggest short term rally in over 5 years.
Most people missed it.

Surprisingly, large commercial interests were still taking off long positions in S&P 500 futures into the declines last Tuesday.

So either they didn’t expect what transpired last week – or they were aware of it and still wanted out – potentially bearish.

Next week’s CFTC report could tell the tale.

-

Tinfoil hat bloggers have been calling every upmove in the markets the past few years as manipulations of a ‘PPT’.

What many of these bloggers missed last week was: that last week was possibly one of the first ‘real’ market interventions done by the ‘Presidents Working Group on Markets’ IMHO.

Yes, the Feds most likely bought stocks last week – for fear of ‘runs’ starting on banks.

After all even the ‘smart money’ was not buying.

The market was simply bought by the Feds to force short sellers out of the market – since there was absolutely no one else willing to buy.

If the problems in the financial sector continue to spiral out of control – the market will now move down regardless of what anyone says or tries to do.

If the problems ‘stabilize’ - last weeks buys could prove very good long term entries for some of those stocks.

Many ‘Non-financial’ earnings are not coming in as bad as feared

This coming week is weak historically.

Cycles/seasonals support continued weakness until Oct

Short term cycles/seasonals could support an upmove into next months expiration – ie: August rally.

Cycles/seasonals may continue to be overridden by news and or/interventions.


----- Commodities -----

Most of the oil contracts (with volume) going back to 2012 have taken out their June opening price on a daily basis.

The 3 year cycle for Oil will likely peak this coming Fall capping the long rise in the price of oil – setting up for a possible longer term trend change or consolidation.

However large commercial interests are not selling into the significant drop in Natural Gas this month – potentially bullish – worth watching.

Grain prices has been loosely correlated with the drop in oil recently

Lumber prices have not made a lower low since April – and seem to be very highly correlated with the US dollar.

Metals have been the weakest of the lot.

Gold is giving mixed signals – platinum lower though which often leads.

Gold could continue to move higher into the end of the decade despite a reduction of ‘fears’ and despite efforts to stabilize the USD by Asian Central Banks - as Gold could continue to discount the continued devaluing of paper money by the US government over the long term.

Dennis Gartman has been wrong on gold almost every single time the past few months.

Shifting through some of the recent financial reports by the brokers and pension funds – they appear to have offset some of their losses by gains in their commodity businesses – will they continue to pursue this?


----- USD -----

To me, the most important observation this week is that so far, the USD has not made a lower low than April even on the IndyMac/FRE/FNM news…

Neither did the continuous Euro contract make a new high (but it came close)

Also Japan’s Nikkei (the most sensitive to the USD) has not made a lower low this July while the US indices did

For years the currency markets have been discounting a crisis in the American financial system – and also anticipating the demise of FRE/FMN

Well it has now happened.

The USD bear case has proven correct.

Other than a continuation of the crisis, what fuel is left for the bear case regarding the USD and US stocks?

This has important implications for the massive ‘bear’ trade put on by the Hedge Funds the past decade.

Is that trade so crowded now – that it needs continued negative bad news just to stop any heavy unwinding?

Oddly enough any unwinding so far has been more in the areas of emerging market stock indices (sold off) rather than commodities (hanging tough until recently)



MONDAY
Leading Indicators - AXP - AAPL

TUESDAY
CAT - FCX - UAUA – UPS - YHOO –

WEDNESDAY
House votes on FRE/FMN in Housing Bill – Beige Book - AMZN – GM –
BA

THURSDAY
Jobless Claims – Exist Home Sales –
MMM – DOW – F

FRIDAY
Durable Goods – New Home Sales

--

More volatility like last week would be 'nice' - It'd be a shame if we consolidate all week...

nice

Leisa♠ said...

RS: Glad you visited FINVIZ. Thanks for the Feedback.

NG: I appreciate your generous postings of your observations. I'm of the opinion that the US is in the lead on the "ugly stuff" and like dominoes will crash into other places.


FNM and FRE are vital to be saved, IMV. Money market accounts in addition to bond portfolios are criticially dependent.

BUT...I want to see oversight with gargantuan balls over these institutions. I do not want PRIVATE SECTOR LOBBYING regulation. I want independent, objective oversight by the public
s interest and on behalf of the public's interest.

Anonymous said...

Bears struggling hard this morning:

Still being squeezed in financials by the raid going on

Every dip in oil and bulls rush in on stocks.

Energy bulls buying the dips on energy stocks trying to call the bottom in oil

Gold bulls keep buying dips in PM
thinking worst still yet to come.

Yield grinding upward pushing money out of bonds

All this despite being very overbought shortterm

Every person I heard on TV this morning said to wait - this is just a bounce - worst is not over - we are sitting on cash.

Too much cash around...

Will greed reassert itself?

Who will win the battle today?

nice

Douala said...

[Collected Wisdom]

Watch your thoughts, for they become words.

Chose your words, for they become actions.

Understand your actions, for they become your character.

Develop your character, for it becomes your destiny.

~ Tryon Edwards