Geez! What a day. Am I surprised by the numbers? I'd be lying if I said no. I've been looking for a larger decline in the numbers given all of the things that we've talked about here. I suppose that my surprise in the strength in the numbers up until now was conflated. Though, these numbers (job gains/losses, and other bloggers have noted the problem with the BLS statistics) have been so squirrelly for so long, you have to wonder if even THIS number is correct.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Today's Market Close
Geez! What a day. Am I surprised by the numbers? I'd be lying if I said no. I've been looking for a larger decline in the numbers given all of the things that we've talked about here. I suppose that my surprise in the strength in the numbers up until now was conflated. Though, these numbers (job gains/losses, and other bloggers have noted the problem with the BLS statistics) have been so squirrelly for so long, you have to wonder if even THIS number is correct.
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2 comments:
Roubini sums up the credit market brilliantly: "...this lack of transparency breeds unmeasurable uncertainty rather than priceable risk. Risk can be priced as you have a distribution of probabilities on various events. But unmeasurable uncertainty causes higher risk aversion under conditions of market distress."
See Sept 7 blog here:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
McHugh sent a warning to look out for a mini-crash scenario. "...With the seventh anniversay of 911 this coming Tuesday, there is the potential for markets to be spooked into a mini-crash between now and next Wednesday. We are in a wave three down now..."
I have puts on the DIA at 130Nov and 133Dec that have done well. Plus lots of SRS and SKF, now a core holding.
Dave, thanks for that great quote. Hussman is similarly disposed. The silence is deafening regarding the balance sheet exposures to some of these agents causing so much risk.
I've been hesitant to be short in any vehicle, but particularly in either SRS or SKF largely due to my uncertainty regarding the weight of the positive kick that a rate decrease might have balanced against expected losses.
I did begin a position in DUG (2x short of oil services).
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