Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Vince Farrell of Scotsman Capital

When I last wrote about Vince Farrell, I shared with you his opining on the credit markets--specifically the credit market debacle was the worst credit event that he had witnessed in his lifetime. I think for most of us, that will stand true.

On the morning of my post, I visited Scotsman's Capital's website to ensure that I had the correct spelling of his name. He had a handy e-mail address, so I wrote to him to tell him how much I enjoyed his commentary during his frequent guest host spots on Squawkbox.

He promptly returned my e-mail, and put me on a mailing list. He offers various commentary throughout the day--his perspective, certainly. But as I read them, I thought that readers here might find them of interest. I wrote him yesterday and asked permission to publish his comments on the blog, to which he gave me "quote away" permission. Accordingly, I'll be posting various missives here that I think that you might find interesting. Here's a recent one from today:

What a reversal. Off -250 on the Dow to start the day and now, up 300. Could be short covering, could be the rumor that NY regulators are planning to aid bond insurance companies (MBIA, up over +20%, and AMBAC + more than 40%), or it just could be. If this is a bear market rally it will be short, violent and dramatic. The key for the market to sustain upward momentum will be the volume. If volume stays strong, so will the market,
My bet is that this is a new move. Different leadership- financials and retailers. And, then there is the Fed with a big hammer to hit interest rates with. Also, my friend Fred Dickson at D.A Davidson reminds me that there is over $3 trillion in money market funds earning very little and could move into stocks.
I hope that you enjoy the commentary.

Addendum: Here was his 2:40 missive:

2.40 PM and the market is almost unchanged after being down 250 points on the open. The Fed is taking a hammer to interest rates and the smartest guy I know, Doug Kass, says buy the early cycle stocks. I agree and was banging on the financials for all I was worth yesterday on TV. Financials, retail, and even homebuilders. I don't have the guts for the homebuilders, but how about things home related like a Home Depot or Wal Mart. As I have said so often the last few weeks, in chaos comes new leadership. Early cycle stocks are shaping up to be the leaders.
Did I mention the financial stocks ?

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