From: vince farrell [mailto:vfarrell@scotcap.com]
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 2:45 PM
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 2:45 PM
The Fed will announce its decision on interest rates tomorrow at 2.15 PM. The consensus is for a 50 basis point cut, but with the stronger than expected durable goods report earlier today, there is an opinion that the cut will be only 25 basis points. For what it's worth, I think the market will sell off either way. Bigger sell off with the smaller cut, but typical buy on the rumor, sell on the news reaction. This is the shortest of outlooks. I believe that during turbulent/down markets new leadership emerges, and we are seeing that with the strength in financials and retailers, last years worst performing groups.I also think that different technology stocks will come to the fore this year. Apple, Google, Research in Motion are fine, but Cisco, Microsoft, Texas Instruments (all of which I own), alone with names like IBM and Intel are better values for 2008.
WalMart cut prices a lot on a wide variety of goods (including Doritos- I'm on my way). 25% of WalMart customers don't have checking accounts, but they can get a WMT credit card. WMT is getting ahead of the government rebate program. Come spend your rebate check now, before you even get it, at Superbowl time, and we'll even finance the shopping. Clever, I suppose.
The Fed had another of the special Treasury auctions we have talked about (the TAF thing) , and almost nobody came. This is good news. Shows the stress in the credit markets has abated and the Treasury can soon revert to normal operations. Normal would be very welcome.
Countrywide Financial reported a loss of $422 million (I think, close enough). That is almost the exact amount that guy Mozilo made in selling stock during the decline. Doesn't seem right to me. It sure ain't a big deal that he so generously agreed to forgo $37 million in compensation "due" him if Bank America takes the company over. One third of the subprime mortgages Countrywide issued are in default, and this guy gets millions. Like Balzac said, "Behind every great fortune, is a great crime."
5 comments:
Leisa,
Are you quoting Farrell 100% in your post, or did you add your own commentary. In the future can you use quotation marks?
Off topic here, but has anyone noticed that the housing ETF XHB has gone up 35% since Jan 9, all in the face of nonstop miserable housing news?
Curvy-el: I've labeled the posts clearly to include the from Vince Farrel and the time of his post. I'm not adding any commentary; accordingly, I'm not providing quotation marks.
I've definitely notices the homebuilder's going up. I closed my MDC puts out at 50% loss.
Model says 50% long appropriate here. I suppose that means buy dips. Discipline, discipline, discipline.
Cat
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