Here's a snapshot of the YTD performance for all of the sectors.


There has been no profitable place to hide, though there have been less painful places to hide such as basic materials, consumer goods, industrials and industrials.

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From Financial Sense Online. Technical view of the market with Tim Wood

• JP: Fundamentally, is there any bad news that we do not know about?

• TW Looking at the market technically, we are at a very very critical juncture.

• We have legitimate DT non-confirmation that has occurred. That warns of a possible trend change. We do not know that, and we have to wait for confirmation.

• ON the one hand we had an engineered bottom. Retest of minor lows on March 10. If those lows can hold we just maybe at the "creamy filling" (in JP's oreo theory).

• My expectation is that this can last a number of months, and into the summer--before we have the bottom.

• Energy and gold: Gold was extremely overbought and cycle lows coming due. Finally broke all at once. Think that there might be more downside before lows are reached. L-t cycle lows are due ideally in the June time frame.

• Big pivotal point in commodities, one way or the other (up/down). Thinks all, including oil, are a little heavy. If the commodity front gets re-ignited, could set up one heck of a move up. If they fail, it is going to confirm some longer term tops.

• JP talking about lack of inventory for ag/metals--fundamentally supporting continued move.
  

• TW reverts to his statistics/technicals: Three year cycle in the CRB generally marks a significant top. Approaching that top this year. If we do not see that, we are going to be in a big move.

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Barron's has an article in this week's edition,

Commodities: Who's Behind the Boom?

about the role of index funds in driving up commodities prices. Readers who do not subscribe to Barron's can e-mail me (see profile) and I'll e-mail them the article. For $129 per year, you can get the WSJ/Barron's on-line editions. It's a worthwhile subscription. I've discontinued my paper sub to Barron's, but I would miss not having its information.

Something that I'm coming to appreciate is the role of market mechanics in affecting stock prices. For example, with the proliferation of index funds that allows folks like you and me to invest, this funneling of money is like gavage. We all know what happens when prices become artificially high and outstrip the fundamentals.

A constant perplexion for me is being able to separate the true fundamentals from the 'spun' fundamentals. I listen to FSO because of the technicians. I could script for you everything that Jim Puplova is going to say about energy and gold. I don't say that to be derisive, but it is a monoline, and it does not offer me NEW information.

'Spun' fundies to me are the "global liquidity," global economic boom" and other such stuff that if you look carefully you will see gets eroded with every economic report. These 'stories' start out sound enough, but at some point in time they become an urban legend to support more and more stretching of asset prices until...the goose get's slaughtered and it's fattened liver is removed for fois gras. Only, you and me, the ordinary investor, do not get to eat this treat. Likely the goose's carcass has been sold to us under the pretense of being fattened with great promise but without the liver and certainly without any golden eggs.