As I type, the DOW is up 368 points. The smartest thing I did yesterday was to by some additional DIA 130 APR calls for .17. My cost basis is .50. It helped offset where I was in the hole, and the position is now green. It hurt to do so as I was already in the hole (it was a modest position). But I'm participating in the terrific rally, and that is good. I also bought shares of FAST to hedge my puts. That was smart too. I DUG out of DUG, though I still have SMN. My spec account is below $20K. Wah!!!
On this day 17 years ago at 2:20 p.m. I gave birth to my son. My labor was induced. I was so heavy with child that when I went to the doc he scheduled me for a inducement (I think it was a Monday) unless I went into labor first. After returning home, I realized the date was April Fool's day. I debated for about a minute as to whether to reschedule. Given that I felt like I was carrying a bowling ball between my knees (yes my knees, that is how it felt), I sacrificed my son's self esteem for my own comfort. Bad Mother!
Actually, my son has suffered no harm. To the contrary, I think his having an April 1 birthday has been interesting for him. My daughter's birthday on the 27th. In Va, April birthdays help one avert the terrible summer months of oppressive heat. (I was an Aug birthday!). Though I remember little about some of my life, I remember vividly the birth of both of my children. Let your breath out! I'll not regale you with birthing stories today.
I've been walking on my foot, but I've reached my threshold of discomfort!
I hope that you've had a good day today. It will be interesting to see how the balance of the week finishes. I still remember A. Cashin's note that these shorts are the most skittish that he has ever seen. I still don't like the fundamentals of the market, but I think that it is one of those places where absent any horrific news, this market NEEDs to go up. I'm happy to be participating, albeit modestly.
6 comments:
Who knows? There were PLENTY of days like this in 2000-02. (14)
I don't think falling earnings have been discounted. Everyone's eyes are on the financials but I think that eventually the rest of the market drags them back.
I expect about 7-8 quarters of eranings contraction. We only have a few under our belt.
Cat
Cat--I agree on the earnings. I think that we will get some good news (that will be cleaved to the market's breast like a long lost baby). The financials will be telling.
I'm already seeing the 'spin' on wages being held out as a bright spot. I put $60 of gas in the tank of my car. Increase in income of 4% or whatever the number, doesn't go very far when necessities (food, gas, healthcare) are going up 40% or more.
I little bird has told me:
DOW 15500 in 2009
US Dollar Rally with new Administration
The world has made one (and only one) trade all this decade:
ie: sellt US$ assets and then take it and buy everything else.
This trade will reverse into the end of the decade.
All the money flows will reverse.
There will be a Tsunami of money come running back into the US markets.
Of course it will be running back in at the wrong time...
...As the "real" Bear market move down will start in 2009.
nice
Hi Nice: I'm of the mind that our markets will seem more attractive with our dollar rallying and our markets chronically outperforming the overseas markets.
Interestingly (and I've said here earlier) there is now talk about the CDO pain, already felt so acutely here, not quite having been felt overseas. We'll see. It will be interesting to see how this rally holds up.
I believe that too many parties wish the market to turn back to sunshine and happy days again. The engineered bottom is simply the gov't trying to accomodate that. Please by all means, anyone, show us the last time any gov't engineered financial event that actually worked as planned. I expect/suspect that we will have two more sizeable drops before we really hit bottom. I can say that the gov't can and most likely will intervene which means figuring out the timeline is like playing whack a mole blind. I suspect.. this will have the effect of stretching out the problems or just making it horribly worse. Mom and Pop will be suckered into buying at the worst possible times and be utterly drained of capital. I warned my own parents about the recent events back in may last year but I was speaking to a brick wall. Still am. Parents have lost six figure plus and they still follow the damn financial guy who has them in mutual funds (financials and tech), and bonds. It litterally makes me sick to see the money disapear. Money my parents worked hard for, for their sunset years, to evaporate. All because Mutual fund guy has a piece of paper on his wall ( I have a piece of paper on my wall too, it comes in a roll and I wipe my $## with it. In my opinion my paper is of better quality than his). He keeps repeating. We are investing for the long term, don't sweat the short term fluctuations. My parents are impressed and beguiled by pieces of paper behind glass instead of trusting their own business acumen which paid them so well over the years. The things I want to do to this dross of a human are... well unprintable.
William B
William B...
From my own take
The market is splitting into 2 parts...
1/2 the market is going to 0
The other 1/2 is going straight up
The indices as a whole can grind up due to excessive liquidity which is attempting to keep the "damaged" sectors afloat.
Recall the stock market is really a small market compared to the Currency and Bond market - so it is easy to through a few billion at it here and there and keep it afloat.
It is not safe in this market IMO to follow advisors unless they are good stock pickers.
Otherwise buy index funds on the little panics.
This market is going to relieve everyone of their money:
The perpetual bears, the perpetual bulls and the buy and holders.
If one can trade - that is where the money will be.
Otherwise - cash (split among various currencies)
All IMHO....
Maybe Leisa has some ideas on what sectors are going to be part of the 1/2 of the market that is going to go up?
Agri's still hot hot hot --- are we gonna run out of food?
Hope not.. that wouldn't be nice
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