Saturday, January 29, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 01/28/11

Such a day in the market on Friday!  The unrelenting march forward was stopped and then pushed back.  For the week, though, the change was merely a .35% decline.  However, looking at the sector/industry charts, you will note that that there has been some serious damage done to these charts.  Drilling down to individual stocks, the carnage is even more brutal.

We must be ever cognizant that market indices are like a house which goes up brick by brick.  For an index, the bricks are individual stocks and their collective performance.  An index house will eventually roll over once the sector bricks are weakened one by one--but that rolling over is through a successive failures in stocks/sectors. That is why topping is a process. And while the market tops over a period of months (e.g. Financial topped in Feb of 2007 (in fits and starts); Basic Resources topped a full 16 months later), they all seem to bottom at the same time, with October 2008 and March 2009 a collective double bottoming for every sector.

I've been providing a view of the total stock market index.  Let's take a look at that daily chart here (click all images for enhanced viewing):

As we can see by the volume@price bars, we have quite a bit of price memory here.  Note that the last peak is at the bottom of the bar which would offer the next range of support with some worrisome vacuum underneath.

How did our sectors fare over the week?

Here are the top/bottom ten performers at the industry level (This is weekly only):

In days such as yesterday when all the world is going to hell (or seemingly so), spotting divergences is informative (for those of you that trade individual securities v. indices).  For those of you inclined that way, this weekend is a good time to review that information which you can do easily on FINVIZ (though I have prepared my usual report for you which you can find here):

  • Industry subsector performance: You can find the industry subsectors here. (sorted in best to worst).  If you like to see this information graphically, you can do so here.
  • Individual stock performance:  You can find individual issues here (sorted best to worst)--be sure to use the filtering tools to pull out thin capitalizations and low priced stocks--a graphical rendition is found here where you can see the sector + individual notables (the good, bad and the ugly).
  • Short interest change:  You can the change in short interest (in addition to the total short interest here.
  • Relative Volume:  Viewing sectors by relative volume can also be fruitful.  You can find that view here.
Let's see where the short interest changes are:

Whether we had a healthful consolidating pullback or something more will be determined with the passage of time. Many of the sector leaders (e.g. automobiles/parts) have been weakening over the past couple of weeks. Price action has moved ahead of the news. News is now coming out that informs the correctness of the market's anticipation of future events. The market by its nature is anticipatory; however, we should always remember that its crystal ball is cloudy. It does act decisively when its expectations are not met. We should as well.

I wish you good trading for next week, and I hope that that you find some use from this week's report.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 01/21/11

The week saw the broad market index decline 1.05%. Only two sectors, media (+1.3%) and utilities (+.42%), were positive. Here is the weekly profile on the sectors (click all images for enhanced viewing):

For the subsectors, here is a graphic of the top/bottom performers.  GE led the Diversified Industrials with a 4.9% change for the week:

This week short interest changes were reported. Familiar sectors are still on the top 10 list.  I am also including for you the top absolute % changes in short interest so that you can see where the bears are increasing their holdings. 

As is usual, I have prepared for you a chart book.  I have a lagniappe for you!  I included chart thumbnails for the 148 subsectors as well as the 24 sectors (in addition to the detailed weekly/daily charts).  Sometimes the bird's eye view helps build perspective.  You can find the chart book here.

And finally, I will close with the chart of the total stock market index--both daily and weekly.

First the daily, then the weekly. 

The weekly chart (2nd chart) shows no damage to the trend lines, and the daily chart is showing some bumping against its trend lines.  (Note that a 13 EMA on a weekly chart is a 13 week EMA, while on a daily chart it is a 13 day EMA).

I hope you find this information and the weekly chart book download helpful to your due diligence efforts. 

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Daily Sector Snapshot: 01/20/11

The broad market was down just .29% today.  Here's how the sector activity lined up (click all images to make clearer):

Here's a view of the Best/Worst today:

And finally, here is a view of the total market.  When you enlarge the graphic you will see that there was a bounce at the 21 day exponential moving average (though it was breached during the day). It was also the highest volume day of the year so far..

Platinum and Precious metals is at the bottom of the list again today.  Not a pretty chart unless you were short.

Daily Sector Snapshot: 01/19/11

Given yesterday's rumbling across all sectors, I wanted to provide you with a quick snapshot.  Here are the sectors with their respective changes as well as the best and worse (click all images for enhanced viewing).

And I want to close with a 60 minute chart on the total stock market index.
I will providing these updates daily...something that I used to do years ago--and something that I hope that you will find adds value to your own due diligence.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 01/14/11

The broad market advanced .73%.  Much is being made of how January starts as a great prognosticator for the balance of the year.  Statistics for the first week in January and what that bodes for the entire market abound, along with analogs, ideologues and all manner of other 'stuff'.  History repeats, rhymes, and more often reminds that we never step into the same river twice, but most times our feet will get wet, sometimes the river has run dry and sometimes we just might drown.  I find that to be a useful mental model as an antidote for over generalizations and wild prognostications.

Here is how the major sectors performed (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

From the subsectors, here is a view of the best/worst performing areas:

I have created a chart book for you which you can find here.

Asset Managers is the second best subsector.  Let's take a look at the sector chart:

 There are many constructive charts in this space (so long as the market remains hospitable!).  I created a chart book for you for the names in this space for those interested.  You can find it here.

Let's close with looking at the broad market chart. I'm including both a weekly and a daily chart.

The weekly chart remains in the overbought area.  On the daily chart, the daily is making a new high without the oscillator--a bit of negative divergence. As you can see from the broad sectors, money is moving into new sector leadership...and so long as this broad index moves up, that also denotes new money coming in.

I wish you good trading this week.

Saturday, January 08, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 01/07/11

The first week of the new year saw the broad market index advance 1.05%, and some big winners and losers among the sectors.  Let's take a look (click on images for enhanced viewing):

Automobiles and Parts was the big sector winner.  GM (+5.75%) and F (+8.8%) were big contributors along with  LEA (+7.18%) and MGA (14.83%).  HOWEVER, the auto parts stores had a drag of a week. Big sector losers were Gold Miners and Platinum and precious metals--largely a reaction to the USD's strength.  Here are the top/bottom performers (using sub-sectors):

Home Construction experienced a surge with KBH's good news.  This sector is heavily shorted and the bears got caught with their hands in the honey jar.  I created a chart book for you with the short interest and the weekly charts.

Let's take a look at the broad market index:

There is some negative divergence between the oscillator and the price action; however, the daily chart is not extended relative to the trend line.  Earnings will be coming out soon and will feed the charts with new information.  As we know, it is not the news, but the market's reaction to news that is instructive.

For your weekly research, I've prepared a chart book for you on the major sectors as well as some weekly change in price and short interest on subsectors. You may download it here (9.1mb).

Disclosure:  I have no positions in any stocks mentioned.

Friday, January 07, 2011


I'm not a snoop. I swear. But my daughter has used my computer to log onto Facebook, and the cookie must be there. I go to websites, and I'm recognized as one who I'm not. I can be a 22 year old if I like. But, I have no desire to be a 22 year old, nor the need to express my 'like' or 'dislike' at the touch of a button. Such is the power of Facebook and other social venues that relieves us of the ability of thinking about or countering 'stuff' with well-considered points and counterpoints. Why bother? Just click an f'n button for goodness sake. Take a shortcut.

I'm not on Facebook. My daughter, who is 27 years younger than I am, has 740 friends. I only found this out because it was staring me in the face on my computer. I might have 7 friends. Of those 7 friends, there are maybe 2 that I would confess my darkest secrets to, but I'd split them up. It is never a good thing to tell any one person all your deepest, darkest secrets. One must have proper diversification.

740.... It is a staggering number in its breadth. It is the metric of voyeurism that we have now achieved in our society where anyone with some passing molecule that abrades against our own in cyberspace is our 'friend.'

Last evening, I spent the evening with my girlfriend's family. She's my friend of 34 years. Her father is dying. She now lives in Northern Virginia; so I don't see her much. She is down to help her mother and sister care for their dying father.

I took some food and wine by. But we always catch up once a year, and it is always as if were were 17 again. We sat by the table--she, her mother and I. Her sister, 10 years younger, came by a little later. I told these people, who I have known since I was 16, how important they were to me in my life. They were kind to me when my home life was in tumult, and I needed their kindness. Their kindness was, in fact, a life preserver.

Their father, a wonderful man, who loves his family, so full of life and joy, is now so weak he cannot get out of bed. He has metastatic liver cancer, an unwelcome residual from his prostate cancer ten years ago.

They woke him up, and I was able to visit with him briefly. Still handsome: his face was smooth, and his white hair thick. I told him he was still the most handsome man I knew. I meant it. I held his hand, kissed his brow and stroked his hair. I thanked him for being so kind to me when I needed kindness.

Another dear man in my life who is 90 is also nearing the end of his life. I helped him write his obituary. We spent the a couple of weeks trading drafts--to say it just right. To codify a life of 90 years--a life filled with accomplishment and joy--to just a few paragraphs is an impossible task. But it is a process with deep meaning, great vitality and appropriate reverence, as it is the honoring of a life by giving voice to just a few highlights--reminder that our lives are to be lived rather than recounted.

Both of these men were influential in my life beyond my ability to measure much less say. Both are slipping away, as we all must do in due time.

I don't have 740 friends. I may not even have 7. But these two men are quite dear to me--being an influence and support in my life when it was important. I will not have the regret of having these two pass from my grasp without grasping their hand and kissing their cheek and telling both how important they were in my life.

The frontier of friendship has no horizon anymore. Oh, I have on-line friendships, and I cherish them. But even then, it doesn't approach 740--or a one-tenth of that.

If acquaintances are now friends, what is friendship? Who are friends? Friends love you and forgive you. I don't think that anyone has 740 friends to love and forgive them. And in return, you love and forgive your friends. You'd need a bountiful cup to love and forgive 740 people virtues and follies. If you can't...well, they are relegated to acquaintances.

I'm happy to have a few friends. I'm blessed to have had people in my life to mentor and inspire me. I'm sorry to have two friends who are holding tenuously to life. I'm honored to have known them. I'm thankful that I shared my appreciation of their friendship with them. And best of all, there were no shortcuts. The badge of friendship is earned with compassion, understanding and forgiveness--and sewn with the threads of tears and laughter. There are no buttons to press to convey those important things. There are no shortcuts to friendship. And when they slip away, the pain we feel is a reminder of their authenticity.

There is no greater charge in life than stepping up when asked the question: Who can you be a friend to?

Sunday, January 02, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 12/31/10

The last week of the year saw the broad market index eek out a .03% increase. However, we know that the action is in the sectors, so let's see which cylinders are firing in the market's motor (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

Basic Resources, Oil and Gas and Telecommunications were the winners.  Healthcare, Personal and Household Goods and Travel and Leisure were the losers for the week.  Taking a look at subsectors, here are the 10 top/bottom performers:

I was interested in the Mobile Telecommunications sector's performance.  There are some interesting chart set ups in that sub-sector.  I created a chart book for you with the Communications Equipment tickers which you can find here . You can also visit FINVIZ to get a deeper profile for the names in this sector by clicking here.

Short Interest:  Here are the sub-sectors with the highest short interest.  Note that short interest is updated 2x per month.

To close, I want to present a chart of DWCF, which is the Dow Jones Total Stock Market includes all US listed stocks that have a readily available quote.  You can see a linkable version of this chart here.

I created a chart book for you, which you can access here.

Best wishes for the New Year!

Saturday, January 01, 2011

Beginning Anew | If Not Now, When?

A New Year!  And conflating the first two words, we get, "anew."

1. over again; again; once more: to play the tune anew.
2. in a new form or manner: to write the story anew.

The New Year is a natural demarcation line between the past and the future. However, it is worth noting, that the only "time space" in which we can take action is the present. There is not a thing we can do now to change the past, and whatever we imagine for ourselves in the future will not come to pass unless we take steps now to ease that unfolding.  Our being more strong, happy, rich, compassionate, learned, skillful (pick your area) will not happen if we do not make the decision today to take action toward that goal.

In conversation with a colleague some years ago, he was relating to me a conversation he had with his son in making decisions.  He then stated a very simple question he had posed to his son:  
If not now, when?

Over the years, when I am tempted to dawdle, dither and defer--the three "D's" that contribute to the deplorable state of do-nothingness--I invoke this mantra.  It has amazing power to spur action.

Our resolutions, then, are a time for us to begin anew.  The product of our introspective efforts during this contemplative time requires three things.

Thing 1:  Set a goal/objective
Thing 2:  Concretize the needful things that must happen to reach our goal (identify what actions/steps are needed when).
Thing 3:  Measure our progress toward achieving those steps.

I will add Thing 4:  Adopt a reproachful mantra to chant when you are too tired, sick, bored, busy or stressed:  "If not now, when?"

I promise you that if you invoke that mantra, you will empower yourself.  As the queen of the three dreadful D's,  dawdling, dithering and deferring, I can state that those words have real power. Yes, it is mildly coercive that question, "If not now, when?"

I believe that there is a range of people in life that fit with in the polarities of people who catapult themselves into action sans thinking and those who cocoon themselves within thinking sans action. I preach to you (and myself!) today as one who is occasionally rooted in the polarity of thinking sans action. 

I'm not sure which is worse, action sans thinking or thinking sans action, but I do know this:  Thinking + action = a higher probability of a successful outcome than either of the other two choices. Self discipline is the antidote to most of the ills accompanied by either of those polarities.  Yes, this is a soap box post, but I am preaching mostly to myself.

I resurrected my resolutions from 2008.  I consider these resolutions (revised date of 2011) a balanced scorecard for my life.  Having turned 50 this year, I do feel that I've crossed (or tripped) over a threshold of sorts.

If you want to peek under the hood of those, you can do so here. It isn't finished, but I did want to share the idea with you. Woefully, I'm one of those people who requires a resolution under the category of "Fun". 

The software that I used to create this list is FreeMind.  You can find it here. It is free software, and you can download it at the link without fear of harming your computer.  It is a simple, yet powerful program that will help you harness your creativity and transform your ideas into actions.

I wish you a Happy New Year--a year filled with successful transformation of your ideas into actions, and may those actions yield their intended consequences.  And if not....may you have the flexibility and alacrity to adjust accordingly.