Sector Updates

I have updated the following chart books for you.

DJ US Sectors (daily)

DJ US Sectors (weekly)

Gold Stocks (weekly)

These are downloadable PDF's that are best viewed in 125% magnification.


Edit: 8:52 p.m. ---I added the Sector weekly charts.

T Minus 11.5 Hours

It is 6:21 a.m. as I write. The day of the big feast. I have been awake for almost 3 hours, and up and at 'em for 2. The funniest things occur to me upon waking. I awakened to my subconscious bubbling up an unpleasant thought: I have brussells sprouts on the menu, I've nothing to make it with. Yes, it was on the list. My first shopping stop was BJ's--bless them for have marscapone cream cheese! My second stop, a regular grocery store was very close, and everything seemed so fresh in my memory from my list making and my BJ's foraging that I was sure that the few items that I needed would be a cinch. Oh, I'll remember. Last words.....last words.

It's like those brilliant investing ideas that one has....you have to write it down. Then....you have to look at your list. It's really quite simple. Why circumvent a simple system?

I'm going to work out my logistics for the meal today. Desserts are done. I elected to make a last minute substitution for a different pecan pie--one that calls for honey and browned butter. Browning butter without the benefit of caffeine at 5 a.m. is not something that I would recommend. Always best to have extra butter (and I have lots!). First batch was blech. In cleaning the pan for the next batch I burned my hand on the pot--of course I knew that it was still hot, but precision at that time in the morning is too much to expect (like shopping without a list). It is going to be a heavenly pie, though, and it is out of oven, cooling--glistening brown and fragrant.

I'll send my husbando to the store with the list of final things. I'm going to the garden to pick turnips for the potato turnip gratin. And I'm not too worried about not finding Brussels sprouts at the store...they never get sold out!

Happy Thanksgiving.

Resources for You

One of my oldest on-line blog friends is MarkM. We participated together in Bill Cara's blog. He's been a great friend to this blog with his insightful, enigmatic commentary. He even has a suite, er woodshed, when cussin', fussin', smokin' and drinkin', the lubrication of a healthy society, is needed for reparations of one sort or the other.

He has a blog, DURABLE WEALTH, PRACTICAL COMMENTARY ON THE CREATION, PRESERVATION AND TRANSFER OF WEALTH, that you can find here: http://durablewealth.blogspot.com/

Martin Pring is also out with an informative paper: Lost Decade: http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/LostDecade.pdf On page three, he has a comparison of secular bear markets in terms of percentage loss over time.

And here's a video from Pring on reversal in bonds: http://www.youtube.com/user/mjpring#p/a/u/0/7rM0Me-BfR4

On Being Thankful

I believe that gratitude is an important quality. And readers know that Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday. It is about being grateful for the bounty of land that nurtures our body and grateful to our families who nurture us--body and mind. What better way than to celebrate these things than over a shared meal?

I believe that I'm cooking my 23rd Thanksgiving dinner this week. I had a small moment of panic this morning, as I could not find my recipe file. After an hour and a half I located it. And while you should never take investment advice from me, you can absolutely take cooking advice! I could also advics you on love and work matters too, but who needs advice on that?!

Posting will be sparse--so I wanted to take a small moment now to write. I have to work a bit tomorrow, and then I will do the shopping. Wednesday and Thursday I will cook and clean. My menu is as follows:

Brined Turkey
Ham
Brussels Sprout Hash with Caramelized Shallots
Potato and Turnip Gratin
Sausage and Cornbread Dressing
Spicy Pear and Pecan Muffins
Scalloped Oysters
Tart Cranberry Sauce
Maple Pecan Chocolate Tart
Sweet Potato Marscapone Pie

As I write it out it doesn't look like much, does it? It is a production though! It is very good though, and everyone looks forward to it. Normally I try one new dish...but not this year. It is possible that something will catch my eye, and I'll feel the need to serve it! I'm shielding my eyes! And after cooking all of that, I will not cook for the next three days!

I wish each of you a Happy Thanksgiving. May the market not serve you up a turkey!

DJ US Sectors Updated

I've updated for you the DJ US Sectors. It is in a down loadable PDF which you
can find here. It is under the "Resources" tab, too.

I create this PDF to enable you to (1)quickly scroll through sectors and (2)easily see how sectors are performing against the broad market index. The sectors are the mosaic pieces that comprise the index picture.

Cognitive Dissonance

Any of us that have had a psychology class are familiar with cognitive dissonance, though it is unlikely that we think about it in our everyday life. I needed a refresher on this definition, and I give it to you, courtesy of Dictionary.com.

cognitive dissonance

Mental conflict that occurs when beliefs or assumptions are contradicted by new information. The concept was introduced by the psychologist Leon Festinger (1919–89) in the late 1950s. He and later researchers showed that, when confronted with challenging new information, most people seek to preserve their current understanding of the world by rejecting, explaining away, or avoiding the new information or by convincing themselves that no conflict really exists. Cognitive dissonance is nonetheless considered an explanation for attitude change.

I like to pay attention to things that bother me, as my subconscious has a lot on the ball. Readers are familiar with my "What do I have to believe is true?" wonderings out loud when I'm confronted with things that are perplexing to me. My current troubling wonder is the so-called dollar carry trade.

I don't pretend to be knowledgeable about the intricate logistics of carry trades, currency reserves and the like. I know enough to be dangerous....and I know enough to sense danger. I do know this: The USD is still the reserve currency, commodities are still priced in USD, and the boat is listing rather heavily to the side of the boat where the shorts are congregated. And being a contrarian just for the sake of being a contrarian risks one's being label a curmudgeon. Or, perhaps I'm just a coward and unable to take risks commensurate with reward.

But for all of the problems with the US economy and the dollar, we still have a pretty good system. (Or perhaps that is my rationale for dealing with this dissonance!). To me, being short USD (and long commodities) feels like shorting a stock that may have a takeover bid at any moment. Is it the 'smart' or the 'too-good-to-be-true' trade? Father Time always answers that question for us. And perhaps I need to do a little navel gazing to make sure that I'm not the one in the weeds and everyone else on the path to low risk riches.

Position: Long SMN.

Tick Born Diseases

In Leisa-land, I have three dogs. Since Saturday, I've spent about $1100 in vet bills. On Saturday, my son discovered a wound on Macy. It was a three inch gash of undetermined cause (likely her barrelling her 72lb body through the woods to retrieve a ball). Very fresh. I took her to the vet for stitch/staples to include her annual "stuff". She tested positive for ehrlichiosis. Bill $~$300.

When Daisey and Ella went in a couple of days ago, Ella tested positive for ehrlichiosis. Daisey tested positive for Lyme's. I've not pulled 5 ticks off of the three of them. So everyone is on anti-biotics. Bill $800. Of my vet bill, $600 was for the heartworm and flea prevention for a year. I'm reminded that in these tough economic times, people struggling with paying bills find pet expenses to be unplanned--and unmanageable.

Tick born diseases are tough on humans too. Though tick season is ending, it's a reminder to ensure that your dogs are reviewed for exposure by your vet and treated accordingly.