Tuesday, July 04, 2017

AAPL | Volume Shelves

I've always believed that volume matters though I see plenty of folks who claim to have workable methods that don't rely on volume.  That's well and good.  Many ways to take money out of or put money into the market.

I'm in the volume matters category, particularly in looking at Volume@Price.  I wanted to give you a couple of time frame example, a 2 hour and a daily chart of  Apple, Inc. (AAPL) chart. (Click to make larger).

Below is the 2 hour chart of AAPL.The rectangular section in melon shows the volume gap on this 2 hour chart. You can see how precipitously price fell through that area. 

AAPL Volume @ Price | 2 hour chart


Volume@price are profiled differently for different time periods. It pays to take a broad view and look at a longer termed chart.  Below is a daily chart. Watching how price reacts to the longer time frames is constructive.  Let's take a look at the chart:


AAPL Volume @ Price | Daily
As you can see, as we zoomout from a 2 hour to daily chart show further areas that bear watching.  The area from $137.5 - $142.5 is vulnerable if willing buyers don't step in.

  Absent sufficient buyers, the price offered will have to decline and there is no real support in the melon-shaded area. Remember that for every price on a chart there is a willing buyer and seller completing a transactions.  However without sufficient sellers for eager buyers--prices go up; further, without sufficient buyers for eager sellers, price goes down.  I think that it is safe to say that watching what happens to price here is key

It's the longer term players, not traders, that move stock prices over longer periods.  They have to build positions over weeks and months.  Similarly, they have to unload positions over weeks and months.  These longer time frames help keep the price from moving up too quickly in accumulation or down too quickly in distribution.  Here's a chart of the number of Institutions, accumulated holdings (as of 03/31/2017), and portfolio rank.

What this tells us is that as of the 03/31/2017 reporting period, 1,238 institutions held AAPL as a top 10 position with more than half of that group weighted as #1.
Conclusion:  Volume@Price provides an objective, historical record of the volume of stock transactions have taken place at particular price points. Buyers late in the cycle have purchased at marked up prices and get caught on these ledges and jump when price moves against them.  Buyers early in the cycle are buying at discounts.  Once price has appreciated, the marked up price is sold.  Where we are in this cycle is where these Volume@Price ledges tell us. Gaps above provide opportunities.  Gaps below provide warning. Consider adding this indicator to your evaluative techniques.


Sunday, June 25, 2017

Weekly Sector Report | 06/23/2017

I've had some off-line life that took me away from preparing these for you.  I'm back on track. My goal is to share with you Super Sector and Sub Sector performance to give you a sense of where money is flowing by examining relative performance of super sectors and their subsectors. 

We are working in price relative universe.  I use the $DWCF as the US Stock Market Universe and compare all performance of all indices against this backdrop.  You may find the full PDF report here.  You can view as much or as little of the detail as you like.

Table 1 below are the Super Sectors as defined by Dow Jones.  All subsectors roll up into one of the 001-0010 SuperSectors.  Let's take an eagle's eye view and then move closer in.

Table 1 | SuperSectors

Notes on Table 1:  As you can see, the drubbing that technology took in prior weeks was repaired a bit.  Both Healthcare and Technology were the darlings of the week.

In the package that I prepare for you, I outline all of the subsectors.  Table 2 includes the top and bottom 10:

Table 2 | Top/Bottom 10 SuperSectors






Saturday, March 25, 2017

Weekly Sector Update | 03/24/2017

Here's the weekly look at sectors.  You may download or preview the full report here.


The market is sorting things out--raucously. The overall market ($DWCF) was down  For the 23 major sectors, $DWCUTI Utilities was the only winner and $DWCBNK Banks (a subsector of Financials) was the biggest loser. Below is the weekly performance of these major sectors and their comparative with the Total Stock Market Index.


Below are the top 10 | bottom 10 Subsectors


Monday, March 20, 2017

03/17/2017 Weekly Sector Update

I'm late out of the gate on this. First, you can download the weekly report here.

I was not able to run the 24 Sectors for last week; however, you can find them embedded in the larger report.  Below are the Top 10/Bottom 10 Subsectors.


IN the chart books, I made a few changes to the presentation of the charts.  The time frame is weekly.  To each chart I added the Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) along with a 50EMA.  I don't typically work with Multiple Moving Averages in this fashion, but I ran across Daryl Guppy's presentation of it.  I was intrigued by using inferred contexts of Traders (short term moving averages) and Investors (long-term moving averages).  Using exponential moving averages, he uses the following indicators to segregate each group.

Short Term Exponential Moving Averages:    3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15
Long Term Exponential Moving Averages:  30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60
Because these are weekly charts, the above will correspond to weeks v. days.  I also pulled a 50EMA in an area shading.  I found that this combination of moving averages against the backdrop of the 50EMA provided an nice perspective.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Weekly Sector Update | 03/10/2017

Last week was one where the market broke sharply and recovered. As I am sector-centric here, I want to present the sector moves for the week.

The table below represents the 24 sub industries.  These represent the major divisions under Energy, Financial, etc.  Not much green.


Below are the Top 10 Winners and losers in the  DJUS Subsectors (these are the further division from above).  Note that the first 2 digits number in front of the name corresponds with the industry code above.  So 37228 (Cyclicals Home Constr) falls under the 3700 Personal and Household Goods.




And I have created a weekly chartbook (in ticker symbol order) for your viewing pleasure which you can find HERE. I wish you a good trading and investing week, and I hope that you find this information useful in bird doggin' opportunities.

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Weekly Sector Report | 03/04/2017

I fell off a cliff due to work responsibilities (my busiest time of year).  I'm back with the weekly sector report for the week ending 03/04/2017.

You can find the complete report here

The report is a large PDF file which you can download or review through Box.com's previewer.  It contains the weekly charts for both the broad industry/supersectors as per the Dow Jones Sector Hierarchy and then all of the subsectors. 

I hope that you find this useful in your market research.


Monday, January 23, 2017

Weely Sector Report | 01/20/2017

Below are the 24 major sectors (alpha order) and their comparative performance to the Total Stock Market Index.  There is an even split 12|12 positive|negative for the week.


I have also provide a chartbook for you for ALL of the DJUS Sectors for those of you who wish to see more granular performance which you can find HERE.  I find that looking at chartbooks provides the best context for understanding discrete market information as it clearly shows which cylinders are hitting and which are missing--e.g. secotor rotation.