Saturday, March 25, 2017

Weekly Sector Update | 03/24/2017

Here's the weekly look at sectors.  You may download or preview the full report here.


The market is sorting things out--raucously. The overall market ($DWCF) was down  For the 23 major sectors, $DWCUTI Utilities was the only winner and $DWCBNK Banks (a subsector of Financials) was the biggest loser. Below is the weekly performance of these major sectors and their comparative with the Total Stock Market Index.


Below are the top 10 | bottom 10 Subsectors


Monday, March 20, 2017

03/17/2017 Weekly Sector Update

I'm late out of the gate on this. First, you can download the weekly report here.

I was not able to run the 24 Sectors for last week; however, you can find them embedded in the larger report.  Below are the Top 10/Bottom 10 Subsectors.


IN the chart books, I made a few changes to the presentation of the charts.  The time frame is weekly.  To each chart I added the Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) along with a 50EMA.  I don't typically work with Multiple Moving Averages in this fashion, but I ran across Daryl Guppy's presentation of it.  I was intrigued by using inferred contexts of Traders (short term moving averages) and Investors (long-term moving averages).  Using exponential moving averages, he uses the following indicators to segregate each group.

Short Term Exponential Moving Averages:    3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15
Long Term Exponential Moving Averages:  30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60
Because these are weekly charts, the above will correspond to weeks v. days.  I also pulled a 50EMA in an area shading.  I found that this combination of moving averages against the backdrop of the 50EMA provided an nice perspective.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Weekly Sector Update | 03/10/2017

Last week was one where the market broke sharply and recovered. As I am sector-centric here, I want to present the sector moves for the week.

The table below represents the 24 sub industries.  These represent the major divisions under Energy, Financial, etc.  Not much green.


Below are the Top 10 Winners and losers in the  DJUS Subsectors (these are the further division from above).  Note that the first 2 digits number in front of the name corresponds with the industry code above.  So 37228 (Cyclicals Home Constr) falls under the 3700 Personal and Household Goods.




And I have created a weekly chartbook (in ticker symbol order) for your viewing pleasure which you can find HERE. I wish you a good trading and investing week, and I hope that you find this information useful in bird doggin' opportunities.

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Weekly Sector Report | 03/04/2017

I fell off a cliff due to work responsibilities (my busiest time of year).  I'm back with the weekly sector report for the week ending 03/04/2017.

You can find the complete report here

The report is a large PDF file which you can download or review through Box.com's previewer.  It contains the weekly charts for both the broad industry/supersectors as per the Dow Jones Sector Hierarchy and then all of the subsectors. 

I hope that you find this useful in your market research.


Monday, January 23, 2017

Weely Sector Report | 01/20/2017

Below are the 24 major sectors (alpha order) and their comparative performance to the Total Stock Market Index.  There is an even split 12|12 positive|negative for the week.


I have also provide a chartbook for you for ALL of the DJUS Sectors for those of you who wish to see more granular performance which you can find HERE.  I find that looking at chartbooks provides the best context for understanding discrete market information as it clearly shows which cylinders are hitting and which are missing--e.g. secotor rotation.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

SQM


Today's chart is SQM.  I picked this up in a chart scan, and I entered a position. This stock has a favorable chart formation on a monthly basis.  The area in green represents the longest volume bar where the price memory may still be strong.

Below is a weekly chart.  I prefer to do my stock scans on a weekly chart as there is less noise.



The chart has made a strong move with pullbacks to the WEMA(21).  It has also pushed through the volume at price bars where the BLUE SKY area, the area I find allows for price to move through easily (chart ether!).  Now, this may not be so, but these short bars tell me that there is not much price muscle memory here $32 - $46.

I found the chart first, and then found the fundamentals.
  • It is a producer of lithium--a favorable commodity in the world of rechargeable everything.  Motley Fool did a write up on them, which you can find here
  • Institutional ownership is less than 20% (per J3SG) -- so there is room for growth here (so long as there is a compelling value proposition.)  (I note that Finviz and J3SG have different Institutional percentages.  I have no idea why.  Finviz notes 43%.  Either one has room for attracting buyers.
I care more about the chart than the fundamentals.  I like this price action, but it is clear that the chart is at a critical juncture.

Anyway, it is worth a look.  I'll update later, hopefully not with a PFFFTTT!

Embracing My Inner Nerd

The importance of having effective systems cannot be overestimated.  I mentioned in a previous post that I led a one-woman revolution and deleted every single chart in my Stockcharts account.  That was 9 years of chart growth.

It took me several days of invested time to rebuild my chart framework.  Utilizing the excellent framework of the the Dow Jones industry/sector build, my charts are presented numerically, so they order perfectly in accordance with their industry/sector, are named with the industry symbol and the sector name.  It creates the perfect index from my summary sector chart book with 108 charts to each of the individual sectors that contains a chartbook for all of the sector constituents.

  "Why bother?" you might reasonable ask.  There are two reasons.

Reason 1:  In test  driving my system this week, and I found that identifying opportunities occurs in a fraction of time of my other 'system': the speed due to the indexing nomenclature that allows me to go from the one list (all sectors) to the many (all charts).

I use the following resources, cobbled together in a fashion that suits my needs:

  • Stockcharts 
  • StockFetcher--this gives more flexibility in sorting and finding stuff than Stockcharts
  • Finviz - gives great profile information and summary information but lacks OTC data and their charting is not to my liking.
  • J3SG.com--provides institutional activity.
  • ThinkorSwim - This provides great granularity for making entries/exits.  
Reason 2:  This 'system' works for me because it suits my personality.  My professional life has always required that I wallow in detail and data to make sense of it.  Any system that doesn't give me that structure, which is how I build my understanding of 'stuff' is incompatible.

In the past, I've not let my system work as intended as I didn't trust what I was seeing because no one else was talking about it.  I want to share these two quotes comes from Justin Mamis, from The Nature of Risk--I offer them because I think that they are the cornerstones of how I feel that I must go about my work.

We need, we crave, the trust and belief from others, but when information is insufficient we need trust and belief in ourselves. We need the discipline to accept whatever is available, and the experience to understand all the ifs, ands, and buts, and yet still take the risk: we need to be able to make the decision. (p. 79).

Discipline means choosing what to do unencumbered by the fear of making a mistake. Confidence means trusting our intuition and that what we 'see' is what we "know." (p. 80)
There are 3 modes:
  1. Researching -- gathering the evidence
  2. Thinking -- integrating and making sense of the evidence
  3. Doing-- taking action on the evidence
 The market NEVER pays us to not take risk.  Risk is where the reward is.  So hand wringing and dithering are not constructive modes.  Accordingly,  the Mamis quotes that I pulled are centered on discipline, experience, trust and action of making a decision. If we have prudent money management and clearly state when we are 'wrong' about a position (time and price), then our risk can be quantified and mitigate.  That means that decision making is free of equivocation (hand wringing, dithering) .

So, my chart reorganization provided me with a disciplined approach to find strong sectors, strong charts in order to become more reflexive in my decision making.  And being reflexive centers on discipline and confidence (like 'wax on, wax off').


Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Weekly Sector Charts_01132017

I'm working my way up to providing a more comprehensive update on sectors.  I'm in a busy portion of my work life, so for now, I'll hit the highlights to include providing a comprehensive chart book on each of the sectors which you can find here.  This is not on the level of what I used to do, but for now you might find it useful.

Below is a list of the top 10 and bottom 10 DJUS subsectors:


Notice that in the middle of this table seats $DWCF which is the total US market--basically unchanged.