Monday, May 31, 2010
There is always a bull/bear market somewhere...just make sure that you are looking in the right places.
I've prepared for the the detail chart book which you can find here. Because it is month end, I also included the monthly charts. IN ADDITION, I created performance charts for all 24 Sectors! I think that you'll find them interesting because I started with March 1, 2009 through May 28. I've also included bookmarks to make this report more navigable.
If you are not familiar with performance charts, they measure the price performance relative to a starting place. Here's an example of a performance chart for the Total Stock Market Index from 03/01/09 through 05/31/10:
Note the volume by price bars. If we break down trough the yellow area, I believe that we could quickly cut through the blue area where there is little "price memory" in the market. The market did manage to gird it's loins and hurdle above its moving averages. I use the 13 + 34 exponential moving averages combined with the 89 day simple moving average. I have Osso to thank for the suggestion of taking the 89 day moving average from an exponential to a simple basis.
More about this picture in a minute.
I drove to Alexandria yesterday morning. It is a two hour drive from my home. It was a pretty day, and I passed many motorcycle pods going toward DC for the annual Rolling Thunder Motorcycle Rally. I didn't know anything about this until my fellow transport colleague from that area told me. I hope that you'll take a moment on this Memorial Day Holiday, to read about it. I hope that you will take a minute (or longer) to honor the memory of those who have fallen and to thank those currently serving or who have served in the past.
There were two bridges on which several people were waving (hands and flags) or putting up flags. They seemed genuinely happy to be greeting the faceless, nameless drivers proceeding beneath them. I imagine that today the bridges and the road ways will be more crowded. I'm happy to not be traveling them, but rather to be seated at my desk.
Regarding the first picture of Jonesy being followed by my two girls......Jonesy does not have a clue as to where he is going, yet he has two interested followers. Some market pundits sprang to mind. Draw your own conclusions!
Veterans! Thank you for your service.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
I also wanted to point out the sectors that have had a subsequent violation of the February low.
An unusual week where all 24 sectors were negative. In the larger list of 147 sectors, there were no positive sectors. An unusual and brutal week if you were long. If you were short, then it was manna from heaven.
You may download the full report here.
Oil & Gas
Monday, May 17, 2010
From Chicago to Las Vegas, I was sitting beside David. He was an elderly man, 87. He remarkable in every respect. He was a WW2 verteran and retired just two years ago from his marketing firm which he sold to his daughter. His wife is still alive, but her range of activity is limited to a five mile area. He said that she often wishes that she would go to sleep and not wake up. I cautioned that she might be suffering from depression as she also has a chronic disease. He looked at me knowingly and said, "When you get to be a certain age, it is not an unusual desire."
I asked David why he was traveling to Las Vegas. "The Money Show," he answered. David was interested in learning about ETF's. In fact, David was interested in learning about a great many things. He was talking about the courses that he has taken from The Learning Company, and he had one in hand about how the brain worked.
Though physically frail, his mind was very alert and he clearly had much energy.This trip to Las Vegas was one of 90 that he had taken over the years. He had planned his trip carefully. He spent the night at a nearby hotel. He recounted how the couple next door made quite a bit of noise into the wee hours of the night, robbing him of some much needed sleep. He returned the favor by turning up his TV at 4 a.m.! He chuckled at his mischief.
He arranged for a wheel chair to take him to the arrival gate and had one waiting for him at the departure gate. I admired that this man still forged ahead, and I told him so. He then said something that I hope that I carry to my grave--it was something that he said to his wife:
You focus on all the things that you cannot do; I focus on all the things that I still can do.
If that isn't a mantra for living life fully, I don't know what is. I was flattered that he told me, "I thought this was going to be a boring flight--you are interesting." I hope that David enjoyed the Money Show.
Coming back, I sat beside a young woman just beginning her teaching career. She was young, effervescent and hopeful. I forgot her name already--though I'm quite sure that David would not have. But each of them book-ended a very pleasant trip where I had to the opportunity to meet on-line friends. It was also a reminder that our lives are not defined by what we accumulate in our lives, but who we accumulate into our lives and the strength of those relationships. It's a lesson that bears reinforcement, and my trip was a good means to solidify that life lesson.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
The market had a bounce last week, with the DJUS Total Stock Market Index advancing 2.74%. There are 148 subsectors. You can easily see the top/bottom performers by going to the WSJ industry page.
Below is a 1 week performance view for the 10 best/worst performing subsectors (industries):
(data courtesy of WSJ).
You can find this information for a number of time periods, and it it updated daily. It's a great way to perform an end of the day review and wrap your head around the market action beneath the indices. I've created a full report of the 148 sectors sorted by weekly performance along with the weekly/daily charts of the 24 broad sectors here. You will need to rotate the chart pages counter clockwise for easy viewing.
My individual charts use a 13/34 period exponential moving average. I'm interested in the relationship of these two lines to each other (e.g. is the 13 moving toward or away from the 34?) and the relationship of price to these two lines. I included thumbnail sketches of all 24 sectors so that you can see all of them at a glance. Stockcharts uses a 20/50 moving average that is not editable in this thumbnail view. The same concept is at work though--short moving averages v. longer moving averages and the price relative to those. Currently all 24 sectors see price action below the 20 period and 8 of the 24 sectors have the 20 day below the 50 day.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Las Vegas will soon be a terrific memory.
Here's a picture after lunch at Noodles in the Bellagio, yesterday
Never have I been in the company of such handsome, charming, smart and funny guys. It was terrific to meet my blog friends from Slope of Hope. It felt like old friends getting together. I can think of few things in my life where I've been as much anticipatory of "something" and to have that "something" exceed my expectations. This 'something' was a special one indeed as my expectations were exceeded in every way.
I've been informed by my daughter that Macy, our American Bulldog mix, has not moved from the couch and is fixated on the driveway awaiting our return. The departure monitor warns of possible weather delays to Chicago. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, as I'm looking forward to getting home.
Friday, May 07, 2010
I remember the 500 point drop on the Dow a few years ago. That was a harrowing thing to watch. Yesterday at 2:46 p.m., I received a call from a client. I was watching the screen, I said, "The market is crashing as we speak." He graciously asked, "Do you need to go?" I didn't. I have no idea what I would have done, but I watched my SIJ which I hold in size in one account zoom up.
While on the call, I could see the market reverse. SIJ at one one point had both a bid/ask in a couple of pennies of $1.14--it had been trading. Here's a screen shot
Nasdaq has a list of stock trades that will get busted if it occurred within that 2:40 time frame through 3 p.m. You can find the list here.
I leave for Vegas on Sunday to meet Tim Knight, from the Slope of Hope, in addition to other of my on-line friends who are dear to me but who I've never met. Tim's blog was one of my first blog homes several years ago. I had the opportunity to help him out when he was in France. I appreciated that my blog still remains a personal space.
My husband will be accompanying me and he is scouting out some speed-induced thrills. My husband is an avid dirt-bike rider --still at age 54. Our last visit to Las Vegas, he did an 8 hour d-b ride in the dessert with a world class rider, David Dunn. Unfortunately, in looking to do that again, in search for David, I found his obituary. My husband's time with David that day "pegged his fun meter." So, there will be a bittersweet memory there.
I hope that your trading is going well, and that yesterday didn't wig you out too much!
Monday, May 03, 2010
Last week was a highly unusual week where all sectors were negative.
However..... in the more granular industries, here is a summary of those that were positive:
I regret that I do not have a chart book for you you on the 24 sectors. I had some technical difficulties with a new program that I'm using, and I'm quite unhappy about it. If you are an intrepid chart viewer, you can find the chart book of the 147 sectors in weekly/daily/monthly format. This report is more research weight, and it is 48mb or so. View it here...if you dare!
You can find the summary 147 sectors here.