Friday, February 25, 2011

Institutional Voyeurism: Gold and Gold Miners

Some years ago I did more writing on Institutional Voyeurism.  There is something fascinating about taking a peek under the hood of institutional holders' (IH) portfolios.  I indulged this fascination this morning upon waking with the idea of wanting to look at the composition of IV's in both GLD and GDX that had these tickers as a top 5 position. 

My favorite place to go on IV's is J3SG  My data is from their website.  Here's the table that I prepared showing institutions group by the ranking of each ticker in their portfolio (click all images for enhanced viewing).  

What is this table saying?

GDX:  52.5% of the dollars are held by 6.4% of  the total IHs as a top 5 holding.
GLD:  42.8% of the dollars are held by 16.6% of the total IHs as a top 5 holding.

Let's take a closer look at this composition:

 Forty-nine % of holdings are held by three IH's:  Julius Baer (32%/position rank 1 in portfolio), Blue Ridge Capital (10%/position rank 4 in portfolio) and Greenlight Capital (7%/position rank 8 in portfolio).  Seems very lopsided to my eye.  Let's look at GDX's kissing cousin, GLD:

 GLD is enjoying more diversity of distribution. <1% holders comprise 46% of the holdings.  The other notable large holders are Paulson (16%), Northern Trust (8%) with the balance of holders distributed as 5% and less.

What conclusions can be drawn?  The obvious is that there appears to be a rather heavy concentration in these funds among just a few AND that concentration is a top holding in the portfolio.  In contrast,  USO, for example, while having concentrated holding among the big investment banks, does not have such a high percentage of top 5 portfolio ranks. 

This may just fall into the category of interesting, not actionable.  But I thought I would share it with you.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 02/11/11

Sorry to be late out of the gate on this week's sector report.  The broad market index advanced 1.6% for the week and 5.79% year to date.  Also, the broad market is just 4.94% below September 2007 levels.  Let's take a look at the sectors (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

At the subsector level, here are the 10 top/bottom performers:

As you can see, the super-sexy Tire industry was a big winner, and Auto Parts has resurged again after a correction.  There are not many tickers in the tire industry.  Here's a snapshot from the WSJ Industry Page

One of the reasons I enjoy reviewing sector performance is that it forces me to poke about and find names that might be performing outstandingly, yet are flying below the radar.  TWI is one such name I am familiar with.  I'm not in this name currently, but I thought it a nice stock to highlight.  Let's look at the chart:

It has more than doubled since September.  One way to look at the headline movers, in this particular case, agricultural stocks/equipment, is to think about ancillary participants.  TWI makes the tires that go on the equipment.  Getting to know stocks in moving sectors and to think about stocks in supplying sector, can help you pinpoint some attractive opportunities as they unfold.

We will close with the broad market index which has successfully cleared its volume bar hurdle:

I've prepared for you a chart book:

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Weekly Sector Report | 02/04/11

The bulls found their footing after stumbling the previous Friday. The broad market sector was up 2.75% Here's how the cylinders were firing on the markets' engine (click all images for enhanced viewing):

Moving to the industry level, here are the Top 10 Best/Worst performers:

The sharks are swimming in the current areas:

We close with the broad market index:

With this week's close, it has poked its price nose above the long volume bar that has previously acted as resistance.

As usual, I have created a full report for you: