Sunday, June 14, 2009

Sunday Morning ‘Stuff’

I looked at my sidebar and see that YTD, I only have 59 posts. I used to do that in a month. Before I had my own blog, I used to yap a bit on the blogs of Bill Cara, Roger Nusbaum, Real Money, Tim Knight, and Barry R. I still post on Real Money, and I've recently started posting on TK's blog again. He's such a following there was just a handful some years ago as was BC's.

Yesterday, I reviewed my year to date performance—specifically my win/loss.  I do not do that regularly.  I’ll be frank, in 2005 I probably would have vomited had I seen the number.  There is a compulsion to bet large—treating the market as a Lotto.  It’s too easy to think that way, and parts many (including me) with their dollars. 

I’ve been doing a much better job of holding onto my dollars.  But I wanted to share it with you.  This is 2009 performance to date.



The above represents my maturation as an investor.  I’ve kept my stock exposure low—the above is performance using no more than 15% of my portfolio committed at any time. I believe that performance really is about controlling losses.  I’m regretful that it took me so long to understand that.

Further, I know that I don’t manage my gains very well. But that is part of the continued maturation.  But the real source of pride (that’s a hateful word) is that my win/loss ratio is where it is.  The above numbers (% gain/loss) is inclusive of fees, and exclusive of dividends.

I’m currently 87% cash.  I sold my WH into the orgy fest of buying on Friday.  It may very well be an example of selling too soon, but I’ll took my 54% gain and ran.  I’m missing out on the .43 dividend that will pay out.  But I figure my dividend was front loaded.

Why did I sell….I’ve been trying to stick with my buy low volatility and sell high volatility scheme with the qualifiers that

It’s nascent, highly probably that it is poorly informed, and likely that it is poorly executed.  Nevertheless, I’ll not let those things stand in the way.



I’ve highlighted for you the volatility narrowing periods.  This stock has a good opportunity to go much higher if the volume can support it.  I’m hoping that it will pull in and consolidate, at which time I may re-enter.  I feel that the LOW RISK entry and money has already been made. I’ve owned this stock for a little bit, having survived the dip to the depths (would that I had bought more!). I increased my position by 2/3’s in the last volatility narrowing and then 3 days later…POW!

Anyway, I like looking for these types of stocks. And this strategy has been successful for me. Here is Great Basin Gold.  It is in a channel and holding tight to the 10 EMA.  I’m not sure where this thing is going to break. It is an example of the Bollinger Bands in side the Keltner Bands.  There if it breaks upward—terrific.  If it breaks downward…Wahhhh!



Here’s UNG….The volume in UNG has been nothing short of phenomenal. I’m not sure if it is good or bad but we’ve seen the same  I’ve some UNG in my account and my I’ve a rogue SEP IRA of my husband’s that is in FSNGX (Fido mutual fund).


I believe that the Utilities are looking pretty interesting here in terms of volume and price patterns.  I bought some UPW on Friday.  I should note that often it is better to be in individual stocks that are going to move in the group rather than the group itself.  But I was lazy (read:  busy) and I did it the easy way.


With UNG being at a key inflection point, you might find that the gas utility stocks might be of interests. 

In my Kelt/BB filter, I found this stock—UTL.  You can read about them here on FINVIZ. I may buy a little on Monday.  I’m not clever enough to know what this flattish H&S formation could dole out---so there is a bit of a worry



Here are the other stocks that show up on the filter.  I’ve no opinion on them so much, and you KNOW that I do not make recommendations to buy or sell.  However, I do want to demonstrate for you some of the things that I’m considering/doing/abandoning to support the mission of this blog.    stock screen that has proved to helpful.




Ever since I loaded Windows Live (which has certainly made blogging with images etc so much easier) my Word has not worked.  In fact nothing worked to well and I had to do all sorts of restorative stuff.  Anyway, I broke down and I upgraded to MS Office Professional 2007 to replace my MS Office Professional 2000.  I got my money’s worth.  I also purchased the Visio—I needed a flowcharting program for my client work.  At least it is a business expense.

Now I’m off to work to meet my looming deadlines.

Celebrate the splendor and grace in your day (if you can find it!)

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