Saturday, September 12, 2009

Stupid Stock Tricks

I believe that my COST puts will be my Prince Charming Trade of this year--so named as it was likely to be too good to be true. Here's a chart.

Naturally, as I present charts, it is always with the caveat that I'm no great technician. But I do make an honest attempt to analyze them. I was show sure that this breakout would not hold. I could find no instance where it had. Well, my $55 puts expire this week.

The beauty of technical analysis, is that in hindsight you can always find some amalgamation of 'stuff' that will support the reality. That's not a ding on technical analysis, but rather an honest comment on how one can support the outcome. In this particular case, I would point to the lack of p/v overhang in the area of the breakout.

You'll remember last week, I was commenting on the NYSE Composite.
Ultimately prices go up due to more buyers than sellers. Here's and S&P 500 chart

I still think that there is a credible probability that we could have a strong draft upward--a buying panic for quarter end fund managers. (And there is a reverse H&S pattern that has been completed with decent volume).

There's lots of reasons why the stock market should go down. I think that there's some credible reasons (technically and emotionally) as to why it may not crack just yet). (Edit: and one could also argue that there is some natural resistance here).

I'm doing a pup run today....NASCAR is in Richmond today, so I'm on my own today. I can carry out my own coup at home!

I'm also tempted to screw around with this blogging template. I miss my sidebars, and I was too busy earlier this year to adapt this template to accommodate them. A pretty by not terribly functional template.

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