Homecomings and Tin Foil Hats

What a week. Dad made it home yesterday. My son is recovering well. Perhaps this week will be boring.

I do have my dinner party next week, so I need to get into EPA mode and get my house cleaned. I'll opt out of the white suit, but I suspect there are some nooks and crannies that might require my donning it.

I also have to plan the logistics for my party. What to cook when. As you know, I've had the menu planned for a couple of months now. The nice thing is that I haven't changed my mind......

Some hours later....well, I cannot find my $^!#$^^$%& recipes so I had to re-look for them on line. I've gathered them together again. (Sigh).

NG presents this interesting point for discussion: "Is it possible that many commodity and global markets are now going to 'decouple' from the USD?"

It's a very perspicacious question. I listened briefly to Tim Wood on FSO. He's suggesting that commodities are (1) either in a topping phase or (2) are legging up for another phase. If it is the latter, he uses the adjective "horrifying".

I couldn't help but run across this chart:


This does appear to be rolling over a bit. I don't know if this is the topping that TW speaks of. I think that it is instructive that some of the underlying stocks are going bonkers, and this index appears to be stalling a bit.

I also found it instructive that the DOW could not close over 13K during options expiry. Perhaps that the top end of our current trading range. TW believes that the 4 year low has been put in.

I need to resurrect my book on range bound markets and get that finished.

But the suggestion of the fall of USD hegemony is not a topic that gets alot of air time. For that reason, it deserves some consideration. It's what folks are NOT talking about which is generally the most important.

Bill Cara published a terrific report by Credit Suisse about the decline of US hegemony (a strange word, I think). Engdahl and Henry C. K. Liu write some fascinating stuff--their perspectives are interesting to me because they seem so honest in their writing. That honesty colliding with a US perspective makes for some rude awakenings.

Tectonic shifts that we will likely see unfold:

• Decline in US political/economic hegemony and all of the things that go with that (I'm shuddering).
• Sea change shift in energy utilization--I don't believe the current prices are based on fundamentals or USD fluctuations. Perhaps the markets are being 'used' to spur a massive shift in public opinion.
  
• Movement from a consumerism to survivalism (food/commodity/potable water).
• Economics of an aging population.
  

(I did not have my tin foil hat on, but feel like I should put it on).

I see global economics and politics being shaped greatly by the above. (I see gray--nothing clear, certainly).

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I see that Chinese stocks are being run up again. It will be interesting to see what happens this week. Hopefully, I can post a little more. At the very least, I hope that you are finding the daily sector sort useful as you consider market activity.