Thursday, March 19, 2009

Spring Forward, Fall Back

The simple saying to help the old folks (which now includes me that left her memory and other valuables in some other year) remember which way to set the clocks. It is also appropriate for market rallies--of any sort. It's just that in bear markets, the 'fall back' literally involves one falling out of their chair and cracking his/her head on the concrete floor.

Seems like the Fed's comments cause a barnstorming event. With the kindling being quite dry from a relentlessly downward march in equity prices, only a spark was needed to cause a conflagration of buying. I don't feel compelled to jump all in, and I've had a few seeded positions that are rewarding. I elected to sell my BAC as I had UYG exposure. I took my 62% gain, but had I hung on (famous last words), I would have enjoyed 50% more gain. But, I elected to invoke the discipline in this screwy market of taking substantial gains (particularly over a short period) when I have them.

Enough about me already....let's look at the industrial metals chart

Has it bottomed? I do not know, but we are seeing a recovery in metal prices. This is the chart that I watched and posted infrequently about when there was a mad rush to all of the metals. Those stocks were topping while the industrial metal prices were surreptitiously falling.

Financial stocks should be the first guys out of the block in another bullish phase with commodity prices recovering. We just need to know if the financials are a false tell. Opinions abound; I watch the charts.