Sunday, July 19, 2009

Sunday Post

To say that I’ve been out of touch with my life since January would be an understatement. I had two critical client undertakings where people were depending on me.  I take such trust pretty seriously.  And to the exclusion of all other things in my life (sleep, exercise, friends, writing, family), I worked on those matters.

Now, after having fought the good fight in one matter, I have some time freed up.  I’ll need to knock on some doors and get some client work to backfill, but I can take a little break for a month or two if I want.

This weekend was lovely.  We went to the Pork, Pine and Peanut Festival at Chippokes Plantation.  We went by boat—and many people travel there that way.  It did not seem to be very well attended in terms of foot traffic. The flotilla, though, is clearly where the party is and becomes a Mardis Gras atmosphere.  We never stay that long to witness though there is always an acquaintance or two that brings back stories.  Okay, it did look like there was a couple channeling the ad slogan for the Pork Council:  Pork the one you love.  They were in the water, but not too much was left to the imagination.  I was neither disgusted or titillated—I would have like to have been something…I’m just numb still.

Nevertheless, the day could not have been better.  The boat ride was smooth, and the cloud cover offered just the right mix of rays and cover.  We invited a younger couple who have invited us to their home a couple of times.  They were a delight.  They are active and travel widely—the camping, hiking, hard travel.  She’s an art teacher and he is an industrial engineer with many similar interests to my husband’s.  Perfect company on a perfect day.

I’m feeling very out of synch with the market as this last month and a half have been very time consuming.  But there are two observations.  First, I must observe that my UNG post (where I thought there was capitulation) was a great example of the market going further than you think.  Second, an in reinforcement of that, the market is likely to act in a way that will cause the most people to lose (the ‘obvious’ head and shoulders).

Funny how the market is like that.  I never forget Stan Weinstein’s comment that the market is designed to put the money of many into the pockets of a few.  I will begin ‘reconnecting’ with the market.  It feels like we are at an inflection point….and I’m not sure which way the market muscle will flex.  But as a watched pot will never boil, neither will a watched bearish pattern break down.  I paid a high tuition for that in my early to the party entry into shorting banks and insurance companies.

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