Jeff Saut – 9 1/2 Weeks…..Stan Weinstein 30 weeks

Jeff Saut is one of those voices that is prudent to listen to.  He doesn’t make wild declarations, but insightful comments and analysis that underscores his very intuitive feel for the markets.  Plus, you gotta love someone that crafts his/her opinion in a way to inform rather than perform—as in being a circus barker.  Do take a look at his newest comment here called 9 1/2 weeks.

I’ve not done a dog run in over a month. I’ll do one on Saturday—Richmond to Springfield.  I’ll likely have to work the other day.  I should stay home and get some house stuff done. I’ve been busy preparing a forecasting model for my client.  It is a work of art, and like Neo in the Matrix I feel like I’ve become one with my model. 

Models look simple in the end, but the amount of work that goes into them is abundant.  And concentrated.  Over the last couple of weekends, I’ve worked 12-14 hour days crafting the model, in addition to work over the week.  I still have one more to do on this model—alot more, but for now, I’ve got a really robust product.

My other client has been terrific and understanding.  His basic needs are getting met, but …… The good news is that I’ve hired a terrific person.  Who starts full time this Monday.  That will take me out of the day to day and help me focus on the longer term, higher level stuff.  Nevertheless, juggling the priorities has been on going.

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I keep reading material in the bathroom.  The female system is not so efficacious as the male system if my experience in my household is fair to project.  So reading material helps to pass the time.  I keep Stan Weinstein’s book in my downstairs bathroom which is right off of my office.  It is a well-flagged book, and I like to look at the flags and refresh my knowledge.  If you’ve not read the book, you will find it informative. 

I’ve finished my Justin Mamis series, and I’m beginning again with The Nature of Risk. Justin Mamis founded The Professional Tape Reader  and Weinstein later took it over.  If you were to read both of them, you can see how close their philosophy’s are.  I think that Weinstein’s book is more to the point.  But, as you can tell from my own writing style, a meandering book is one in which I’m comfortable.  The Mamis books go to some pains to develop the psychological context.  The lists in Weintein’s books are terrifically helpful.  They are all flagged. 

The 30 week indicator is integral to both Mamis/Weinstein.  The weight of the evidence is central to the theme of determining the trend with the 30 week indicator a bellweather.  After my respite, I started to look at charts from my indices DJ Sectors that I keep on Stock Charts.  I found that most (not all) have been trading over the last month above their 30 week moving average.

The hardest thing about approaching the market (I’m generalizing MY experience) is separating one’s tendency to overlay his/her bias on what they see.  Having reliable indicators and weighing objectively the weight of the evidence coupled with buying in such a way to manage sensibly one’s risk in the market (and risk is omnipresent) are central to success.

Many of the currencies are at key technical levels. 

 

If the dollar is to break, commodities go up, then EWA might be attractive.  I’m looking at that currently.

I’m out of time.  It might be worth your looking at a few of your favorite charts….

A Break from Tyranny

While the post title may sound like the opening of an important treatise on freedom, it was merely inspired by a colossal software problem that I experienced recently.

I’ve been writing my infrequent and sparse blog comments over the last couple of weeks using Windows Live Writer.  It is a terrific program for interfacing with one’s blog and makes it 100 times easier, faster and more enjoyable to post. 

Unfortunately, I must have downloaded some components of this program that planned to take over my entire life.  It managed to disable my MS Office Professional (2000) suite of products.  I managed to disable and uninstall a number of the components to bet my programs somewhat functional.  Word, though, and Powerpoint are toast.  I do have my Outlook back up and Excel.

Though I’ve tried to repair the file, and reinstall, Word still remains wordless.  But I have many years worth of documents that I need.  And the most important thing that I need is my billing template.  What did I do?

I remembered that there is a suite of products called OpenOffice.org.  They are compatible with Microsoft.  I downloaded the suite and was able to open my billing template.  I wasn’t in the mood to update my Office Suite product, and I’m still made, that the file doesn’t work.  Something about Windows LIVE! kills.  At least the carcass is not stinking anymore.

I do remember taking a test drive of the spreadsheet.  There were enough differences that I found it frustrating.  But word processing is easy.  But OpenOffice.org offers a nice alternative for folks that find the licensing for the MS suite expensive and cumbersome.  It is maddening, though, to have a fully licensed product and NOT being able to use it.

If you are looking for a robust office suite platform that is compatible with the other suite spawned from the loins of the devil AND that if free, you should take a look.

Having said all that, I would like to have my Word and Powerpoint functioning fully.  At least I can write to my blog easily, even though the foundation of how I make my living has been crumpled by this software error.

My Son’s Senior Prom

 

My son and his lovely date.  I skipped my senior prom, but I did go to two other prom’s with guys who were seniors.  I was young and cute once too!

Doug Noland At Financial Sense

It would be worth your time to listen to this broadcast with Doug Noland.  You can find it here: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

I particularly liked how he outlined the potential mispricing in risk in Treasury assets.  But it is a lucid and interesting broadcast, that I think that you would enjoy.

 

 

 

Doug Noland
Market Strategist
David Tice & Assciates

Topic: The Credit Bubble Crisis

Ginger

My beloved Ginger, my neighbor’s beautiful Golden Retriever is dead. Ginger’s first love was Tim, her second love, the water, and I think that I was her third love. Tim has a wonderful pond in which Ginger spent untold hours swimming. I would go over there some afternoon with buoys to throw for both her and Macy. It was great fun for all of us.

She died last Friday evening. I did not know until yesterday. She was fetching her last ball and came upon the shore and walked up the incline only to collapse. It was quick and painless.

Tim buried her on the hill overlooking the pond. I will miss her very much. Lacy, Tim’s other dog, was very attached to Ginger. When Lacy was little, Ginger would swim and Lacy would climb upon her back. I would take the kayak out and have Ginger, Macy and Lacy swimming around. I turned it over once and wrote about it here. Ginger swam with me the entire way.

When Tim brought Ginger home, I was working in Northern Va during the week. So each week, I’d come home and find this little puppy growing quite fast. She grew so fast she blew her knees out. And this little puppy wanted so much to be friends with Lucy and Greta, neither of whom would have anything to do with her.

But then Lacy came, then Macy came. And we had this younger generation of dogs to take the work and worry of puppies off of the older dogs. With Ginger passing, a generation has passed. These dogs lived the best lives. It is not enough to love your dog, but to give your dog a place to BE a dog.

Ginger could BE. And she died doing what she loved to do.

I’m in guerilla mode at work. I had my book club yesterday, which I had to pass on. I started work at 7 a.m. yesterday and closed up shop at 8 p.m. It’s 7:03 a.m. now. I’ve another horrific day ahead. But I did want to acknowledge the passing of my good friend who I called both Gingie and Gingus Khan. She sure did conquer my heart.

Computer Mayhem

After spending  productive day getting necessary work completed, I found that this a.m. that my computer is having some issues.  It wants to reinstall Microsoft.  I have no use of OUtlook or other Windows programs.  I’m currently trying to install from a Maxtor backup my program files.  I’m not comforted that I’m getting some messages from Maxtor that certain of the files cannot be restored.

I’m also getting on exit update software for Windows, that seemingly does not want to update.  Strange—but I’m always suspicious about the amount of invasiveness that we have on product registrations and updates and the like. Seems to me that they are getting too much information.  That statement is coming from someone who is not terribly conspiratorial in her thinking.

We rely on this stuff until we can’t, and then our lives go into a bit of a tailspin.  This feels like a virus attack, though I’ve plenty of inoculation.  Not being able to open Outlook, or use any my Work/Excel files is not a happy circumstance.

I do so like this Windows Live for the Blogger interface.  It makes inserting pictures and stuff so much more easier.

I now have to redo my daughter’s taxes as my daughter and my husband share the same first initial and that is how TurboTax saves your file.  Yes, the dummy warning came up, but I thought it was because I had already saved the current return previously, so it did not seem like much of a warning.

At least her taxes are simple.  I was able to download all of my stuff from Fidelity and Ameritrade.  So, I’ll slog hers out as I wait an pray for a restoration.  I go to by stepmom’s who if fixing a wonderful Easter lunch.  Then it will be off to a client. 

Happy Spring

This time of year has a convergence of religious observances.  Spring’s transition brings with it much violent weather.  Transitions in the weather and the market are similar.  I write as I listen to FSO.  Robert McHugh his talking technicals. 

New bull market?  Bear market bounce?  I don’t know.  He thinks, like many, that it is a bear market bounce, and will be followed by a cataclysmic fall later.  And there are the ‘many’ who believe that we are in a new bull market. 

I think that the market has never gone through a real psychological bottom that would be marked by lackluster response to good news, but also lackluster response to bad news as most are sold out.  Maybe I’ve missed something, but I don’t think so. 

So far I’m doing okay without having lots of money committed to the market.  I’m not worried about missing anything, but rather making some base hits to pay some dividends.  My accounts continue to be at all time highs. Because I sidestepped the carnage, I do not feel the need catch up.  Rather, I feel the need to continue to be prudent.  Prudence meaning opportunistic in finding lower risk entry points with some decent probabilities.

There are lots of interesting chart set ups.  I’m interested in seeing what OIH will be doing.  Here’s a Renko chart which I think shows nicely the current chop in the chart.

I have some ERX which I’ve held since I purchased it at $34.  Yes it went down muchisimo.  But I held it.  It was 100 shares.  I don’t see OIH as being a low risk purchase currently, as the chart on many fronts looks overbought.  But the range is worth watching, and there may be a buy point soon if (1) it falls and holds at the bottom of the range or (2) it breaks out of the current resistance with some volume.

Apparently my AZC stock that I bought at .53 received an upgrade.  I found this stock by trolling through charts.  The volume levels were outrageous in December. 

I’m want to unload the last of my position.  I didn’t cultivate my holding as well as I should have, but I’m very happy with this low risk high reward position.  The trick is to not blow it on a less well-considered position.

I’m reading my third and final Justin Mamis book called How to Buy Stocks.  These books have been a tremendous source of information.  I’ve not had much time to read or even write to my blog.  I sure have missed it.  I’ve client work to do most of the weekend.  It filled last weekend as well.  I also need to do some tax returns.  Both of my industrious kids made money last year, and I’ll need to account to the government for it! 

No dog run this weekend, either.  That’s the second week that I’ve missed in a row.  But I’ve offered money to rent a van or pay for gas for other volunteers.  At least I can log on and work from home.  I can take laundry breaks!

I’m posting this blog through Windows LIve…..it is an easier interface than Blogger’s or even Scribefire.  I’m going to hit the publish, and hope that it does not blow up!

A Long Week

My work schedule has become brutal. I've been MIA in aspects of my life to include my blog.

On April 1, my son turned 18. I'm officially the mom of two adult children. We celebrated by going to Outback. I had two gift certificates. The four of us managed to eat enough to exactly use the the $75 gift card. I gave the waiter a $20 tip. The cards didn't cost anything.

I met my family there. I ordered a margarita. It was not any good. I needed a good drink more than I needed a good meal!

My schedule has taken me away from the daily market moves and news and the like. I still watch charts, but for a fractional amount of time. I'm pulling this chart up because it contains lines that I have not updated in a very long time. I think that being able to spot a topping pattern is one of the singular best things that one can learn in the market. This happens to be a rather beautiful one in its symmetry.

You know my fondness for Chinese stocks. Here's one that I have. It has been a attractive performer. They are a biodiesel producer.

AZC has been a phenomenal performer for me. It is at a point where it might fail. Not trusting the advance, I sold into successive rallies. I'm down to 1/3 position, and it is up 2.5x my purchase price. It house money that I do not want to burn down in a conflagration or renewed fears on the economy.

Sector ETF's: While the sector levered ETF's are an easy way to invest, I'm of the mind that finding decent chart patterns (if one is so inclined, as I am), is a better way to capture some quick moves. I'm still in UYM and UYG, but I did far better with my BAC flip than had I gone into UYM more deeply. Since I'm in chart mode, I'll present these.



That volume is pretty phenomenal is it not? I have a small position. You can see that AZC has powered beyond the ETF. AZC will have about 10% of the US copper reserves once its Rosemont facility is completed. They recently did a private placement with a mining investor @ 1.50 for some shares that included one share of common and one option to buy a share at $2.30. You can read about them here.

My security themed play is NSSC. This chart is not in a great mode in terms of volume. But, I bought some anyway in a couple of tranches.

Do you see that very long line in March? That should be a reminder to you that you do not place market orders for thinly traded stocks.


I'm still 93 %and 73% cash in my tow main accounts. Both accounts are at all time highs. I'm being methodical and selective--that I'm working 12 hours a day helps ensure that I don't jump in and do something stupid.

I think that the greatest gift from sidestepping a bear market is that psychologically, one doesn't feel the need to 'catch up'. And to provide one of my body blows, I present WH. The purple line is my buy point. I still believe that energy is important to the Chinese, and that this provider of tubular steel products will benefit from that drive. That they have cascaded downward along with the balance of the energy services complex is not a surprise given the belt tightening.


No dogs today......just work.

My red buds are blooming. I'm now in the second year of my forest pansie red bud blooming that is the grave marker for Lucy. One of my original blog readers MarkM suggested this red bud. It has done well in its location. My more mature redbud has a radius of pet corpses below it: Greta, Mylo and Chloe. I hope to not be doing any more digging for a while. I may find myself under one of those trees to in the distant future!