Thursday, April 30, 2009

Jeff Saut – 9 1/2 Weeks…..Stan Weinstein 30 weeks

Jeff Saut is one of those voices that is prudent to listen to.  He doesn’t make wild declarations, but insightful comments and analysis that underscores his very intuitive feel for the markets.  Plus, you gotta love someone that crafts his/her opinion in a way to inform rather than perform—as in being a circus barker.  Do take a look at his newest comment here called 9 1/2 weeks.

I’ve not done a dog run in over a month. I’ll do one on Saturday—Richmond to Springfield.  I’ll likely have to work the other day.  I should stay home and get some house stuff done. I’ve been busy preparing a forecasting model for my client.  It is a work of art, and like Neo in the Matrix I feel like I’ve become one with my model. 

Models look simple in the end, but the amount of work that goes into them is abundant.  And concentrated.  Over the last couple of weekends, I’ve worked 12-14 hour days crafting the model, in addition to work over the week.  I still have one more to do on this model—alot more, but for now, I’ve got a really robust product.

My other client has been terrific and understanding.  His basic needs are getting met, but …… The good news is that I’ve hired a terrific person.  Who starts full time this Monday.  That will take me out of the day to day and help me focus on the longer term, higher level stuff.  Nevertheless, juggling the priorities has been on going.


I keep reading material in the bathroom.  The female system is not so efficacious as the male system if my experience in my household is fair to project.  So reading material helps to pass the time.  I keep Stan Weinstein’s book in my downstairs bathroom which is right off of my office.  It is a well-flagged book, and I like to look at the flags and refresh my knowledge.  If you’ve not read the book, you will find it informative. 

I’ve finished my Justin Mamis series, and I’m beginning again with The Nature of Risk. Justin Mamis founded The Professional Tape Reader  and Weinstein later took it over.  If you were to read both of them, you can see how close their philosophy’s are.  I think that Weinstein’s book is more to the point.  But, as you can tell from my own writing style, a meandering book is one in which I’m comfortable.  The Mamis books go to some pains to develop the psychological context.  The lists in Weintein’s books are terrifically helpful.  They are all flagged. 

The 30 week indicator is integral to both Mamis/Weinstein.  The weight of the evidence is central to the theme of determining the trend with the 30 week indicator a bellweather.  After my respite, I started to look at charts from my indices DJ Sectors that I keep on Stock Charts.  I found that most (not all) have been trading over the last month above their 30 week moving average.

The hardest thing about approaching the market (I’m generalizing MY experience) is separating one’s tendency to overlay his/her bias on what they see.  Having reliable indicators and weighing objectively the weight of the evidence coupled with buying in such a way to manage sensibly one’s risk in the market (and risk is omnipresent) are central to success.

Many of the currencies are at key technical levels. 



If the dollar is to break, commodities go up, then EWA might be attractive.  I’m looking at that currently.

I’m out of time.  It might be worth your looking at a few of your favorite charts….

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