Saturday, April 11, 2009

Happy Spring

This time of year has a convergence of religious observances.  Spring’s transition brings with it much violent weather.  Transitions in the weather and the market are similar.  I write as I listen to FSO.  Robert McHugh his talking technicals. 

New bull market?  Bear market bounce?  I don’t know.  He thinks, like many, that it is a bear market bounce, and will be followed by a cataclysmic fall later.  And there are the ‘many’ who believe that we are in a new bull market. 

I think that the market has never gone through a real psychological bottom that would be marked by lackluster response to good news, but also lackluster response to bad news as most are sold out.  Maybe I’ve missed something, but I don’t think so. 

So far I’m doing okay without having lots of money committed to the market.  I’m not worried about missing anything, but rather making some base hits to pay some dividends.  My accounts continue to be at all time highs. Because I sidestepped the carnage, I do not feel the need catch up.  Rather, I feel the need to continue to be prudent.  Prudence meaning opportunistic in finding lower risk entry points with some decent probabilities.

There are lots of interesting chart set ups.  I’m interested in seeing what OIH will be doing.  Here’s a Renko chart which I think shows nicely the current chop in the chart.


I have some ERX which I’ve held since I purchased it at $34.  Yes it went down muchisimo.  But I held it.  It was 100 shares.  I don’t see OIH as being a low risk purchase currently, as the chart on many fronts looks overbought.  But the range is worth watching, and there may be a buy point soon if (1) it falls and holds at the bottom of the range or (2) it breaks out of the current resistance with some volume.

Apparently my AZC stock that I bought at .53 received an upgrade.  I found this stock by trolling through charts.  The volume levels were outrageous in December. 


I’m want to unload the last of my position.  I didn’t cultivate my holding as well as I should have, but I’m very happy with this low risk high reward position.  The trick is to not blow it on a less well-considered position.

I’m reading my third and final Justin Mamis book called How to Buy Stocks.  These books have been a tremendous source of information.  I’ve not had much time to read or even write to my blog.  I sure have missed it.  I’ve client work to do most of the weekend.  It filled last weekend as well.  I also need to do some tax returns.  Both of my industrious kids made money last year, and I’ll need to account to the government for it! 

No dog run this weekend, either.  That’s the second week that I’ve missed in a row.  But I’ve offered money to rent a van or pay for gas for other volunteers.  At least I can log on and work from home.  I can take laundry breaks!

I’m posting this blog through Windows LIve… is an easier interface than Blogger’s or even Scribefire.  I’m going to hit the publish, and hope that it does not blow up!

No comments: