I don't normally write posts at 12:51 a.m. I'm normally in winkie land. Today (err, yesterday!) was my husband's birthday. For whatever reason I was both uncomfortable and wakeful, and I elected to come downstairs.
I'm still finding myself at a strange crossroads. On Wednesday, I had the most wonderful day away from client and market demands. I went with my two friends from my KPMG days (friends of 27 years) to the Barboursville Winery's lovely restaurant, Palladio. They feature Northern Italian cuisine. As I was not the designated driver, I had a 4 course lunch with wine pairing. I generally do not drink in the middle of the day, and I was sorely wanting for both a binkie and a blankie for the ride home.
While drinking, eating and laughing-'til-you-cry, a combination with this threesome, are a wonderful curative, I've not come back to the markets with any sense of feeling grounded. No doubt you are bombarded with opinions--many of them confounding--about what the market will or won't do and why.
But when there is no new thinking to be had, sometimes it is useful to revisit old thinking or go to others and read and think a bit. So my point of this post, is to give you a few things to read together.
First, I wanted to revisit what I summarized from Napier's book. You can find that post here. Second, I always find Jeff Saut to be wonderfully grounding. Do look at this column,
from this week. (Click on the above).
Financial Sense online has two articles from this week. The one that REALLY GAVE ME PAUSE was Frank Barbera's. If you were to read nothing else, read this:
Here's my theory: We did get many positive (less-bad varietal) surprises out of earnings. Companies have cut hard. We have to see follow through on revenues rising. So there is a bet of betting on the come that sales revenues will rise and all of this manna will drop beneficently to the bottom line enriching stockholders. I offer that we will NOT see this to be unequivocably the case until the next two quarters. It MIGHT happen with Q3, but I think that there will be so much ambiguity regarding Fed stimulus not percolating through etc. Remember this view is based on the market-as-teenage-boy model will come into play. The market needs a few whacks on the side of the head before the rose colored glasses goe flying. So Frank's view has some real merit.
And finally, Danielle Park's missive gives an interesting perspective
With respect to Parks, she, like many, note/lament on the lack of volume on this rally. To my eye, and I'm not sure why other commentators (real ones!) do not note this simple fact: the volume on this rally is heavier than the volume leading up to the decline last summer. If you have an answer for that or if you think my eye is jaundiced, you may write me and tell me that politely.
Hopefully there was something of use here. Now I will re-retire!