Saturday, August 15, 2009

Saturday Morning Post


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I was trying to find a way to have some better clarity on my screen shots….here’s my final version with admission that I didn’t find what I was looking for….

Yesterday I pulled my last information off of a laptop. I bought an 8GB thumb drive since it was clear that my DVD backup failed. The drive was less than $20. Storage costs sure have come down.

Today is my birthday. I’m 49. I hope that I’m never ashamed to state my age, but I could see serial anniversaries of my 49th birthday! I plan to relax a bit today. Mark and I will be taking a canoe adventure on Monday.

I’m trying to get back in synch with the market. I like Tim Wood quite a bit. If you take a moment to read his Friday’s comments on FSO, it would be worth your time. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Ascribing the rally to a new bull market feels odd to me largely due to my believing that we’ve taken a recession overlay (in terms of decline and correction) and are using it on a deeprecession (rather than a depression). Perhaps that term has already been used by someone. I don’t know, but I’m using it here and will lay claim to it.

Time for a few charts:

I have a theory that if we really are in a new bull market (I don’t think that we are) then the trade-down trade, is likely to be over (crowded). I shorted just 200 shares of FDO in my speculative account. You will remember that my speculative account is one that took from ~$5K to $26K. I then blew it up with two bad trades, and it went to $15K. I just left it alone. I now have it back to $17,850. I only have one position, which I’ll show later.

Here’s the FDO chart. I can see it going to 29, and that is the level that it would need to hold. I took my 4.3% gain on my short from an overnight hold and moved on. I don’t mind base hits, but I still believe that the big money is made in the big moves. Big moves are generally apparent in retrospect though.

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TGB is a stock that I held in this account as well. I bought it at $2.21 and it promptly fell into a chasm. I’ve marked in magenta my ignominious entry. I should add that it has always been on my radar screen, so I made some purchases at the bottom and sold in my qualified account. This may be a case of selling too soon which is a habit that I’m trying to break. But, I expect that it will pull back, and there will be a chance to re-enter.

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SNEN, my Chinese compressed natural gas stock is a wild ride. I’ve been holding to my buy low volatility and sell high volatility. You can see the long shadows on this stock to see the price swings.

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The above is a weekly chart. Here’s a weekly chart that shows the action more vividly.

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I’m truly finding that using the volatility spikes is very helpful in giving me an objective signal. It’s a stock that I watch and will likely re-enter as I like the ‘space’ that it is in—compressed natural gas for automobiles and engine conversion kits.

Here’s another name in that space: CHNG

I was looking at this stock around March…looking is the operative word, as I was ‘looking’ at gold stocks at the end of November.

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Here’s another old favorite:

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They reported disappointing earnings this week. I’ve been in and out of this stock (using blv/shv) I’m finding that using this strategy, I’m doing much better at producing these results where I’m selling (the small red/blue) combo. The last mark is where I bought at $4.86. The cat may have run out of lives on this one! We’ll see.

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Here’s my one holding in my spec account

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It may or may not be bottoming. I know better, but I give into my catfish tendencies to swim along the bottom.

I’m still mostly cash, and have a nice combination of brilliant and dumb ass trades to keep me up about 11% this year.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello

Anonymous said...

From viscous

I like your charts.

Leisa said...

Thank you Viscous!