| Sector/Subsector | Day | YTD (-1 day) |
| Platinum & Precious Metals | 1.02% | 31.68% |
| Gold Mining | 0.86% | -5.49% |
| Coal | 0.53% | 53.93% |
| Pipelines | -0.12% | 12.01% |
| Exploration & Production | -0.48% | 22.63% |
| Nonferrous Metals | -1.01% | 8.42% |
| Brewers | -1.02% | 11.10% |
| Distillers & Vintners | -1.32% | -0.27% |
| Mobile Telecommunications | -1.62% | -18.41% |
| Gas Distribution | -1.70% | 10.20% |
| Oil Equipment & Services | -1.72% | 16.17% |
| Reinsurance | -1.77% | -10.16% |
| Computer Hardware | -1.81% | -4.39% |
| Medical Supplies | -1.91% | -1.18% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | -1.95% | -0.09% |
| Multiutilities | -1.97% | -2.60% |
| Water | -1.99% | -14.76% |
| Steel | -2.00% | 32.38% |
| Nondurable Household Products | -2.03% | -9.82% |
| Biotechnology | -2.06% | 7.93% |
| Waste & Disposal Services | -2.08% | 12.89% |
| Publishing | -2.12% | -10.59% |
| Aluminum | -2.14% | 8.67% |
| Heavy Construction | -2.23% | 9.55% |
| Medical Equipment | -2.26% | 0.95% |
| Specialty Chemicals | -2.36% | 14.92% |
| Tobacco | -2.39% | -3.35% |
| Electricity | -2.45% | -2.87% |
| Soft Drinks | -2.45% | -9.93% |
| Health Care Providers | -2.46% | -21.95% |
| Electronic Office Equipment | -2.57% | -10.82% |
| Industrial Machinery | -2.63% | 7.00% |
| Food Producers | -2.65% | 0.28% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | -2.67% | -8.87% |
| Internet | -2.68% | -9.50% |
| Consumer Electronics | -2.69% | -43.46% |
| Fixed Line Telecommunications | -2.71% | -6.45% |
| Computer Services | -2.71% | 15.03% |
| Pharmaceuticals | -2.73% | -11.41% |
| Business Support Services | -2.78% | 3.09% |
| Personal Products | -2.80% | -4.06% |
| Software | -2.85% | -9.74% |
| Durable Household Products | -2.91% | -7.80% |
| Commodity Chemicals | -2.98% | 7.96% |
| Commercial Vehicles & Trucks | -2.98% | 3.80% |
| Restaurants & bars | -2.99% | -0.89% |
| Insurance Brokers | -3.01% | 1.12% |
| Electronic Equipment | -3.02% | 1.95% |
| Drug Retailers | -3.02% | 1.61% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | -3.05% | 0.45% |
| Semiconductors | -3.08% | -4.36% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | -3.10% | -5.93% |
| Toys | -3.11% | 3.84% |
| Transportation Services | -3.12% | 33.45% |
| Footwear | -3.14% | 2.20% |
| Broadline Retailers | -3.15% | 12.67% |
| Containers & Packaging | -3.30% | -0.12% |
| Defense | -3.37% | 0.26% |
| Telecommunications Equipment | -3.40% | 0.76% |
| Building Materials & Fixtures | -3.43% | -1.54% |
| Home Improvement Retailers | -3.44% | 5.97% |
| Diversified Industrials | -3.46% | -11.38% |
| Broadcasting & Entertainment | -3.57% | 1.94% |
| Media Agencies | -3.57% | 1.32% |
| Financial Administration | -3.62% | -3.27% |
| Marine Transportation | -3.66% | 4.19% |
| Recreational Products | -3.67% | -22.96% |
| Industrial Suppliers | -3.68% | 12.44% |
| Furnishings | -3.69% | -12.36% |
| Railroads | -3.83% | 37.59% |
| Clothing & Accessories | -3.93% | 10.37% |
| Life Insurance | -4.06% | -7.11% |
| Delivery Services | -4.12% | 3.22% |
| Food Retailers & Wholesalers | -4.14% | -2.96% |
| Gambling | -4.17% | -23.16% |
| Travel & Tourism | -4.32% | -8.80% |
| Real Estate Investment Trusts | -4.34% | 6.87% |
| Real Estate Holding & Development | -4.35% | 2.54% |
| Auto Parts | -4.38% | -4.41% |
| Forestry | -4.49% | -17.32% |
| Apparel Retailers | -4.52% | -0.09% |
| Business Training & Employment Agencies | -4.57% | -2.20% |
| Asset Managers | -4.59% | -9.09% |
| Automobiles | -4.60% | -15.73% |
| Aerospace | -4.70% | -10.69% |
| Paper | -4.73% | -16.16% |
| Recreational Services | -4.73% | -14.34% |
| Trucking | -4.77% | 23.78% |
| Specialty Retailers | -4.85% | -2.43% |
| Investment Services | -4.88% | -26.43% |
| Hotels | -5.01% | -4.59% |
| Banks | -5.10% | -17.14% |
| Specialty Finance | -5.26% | -7.99% |
| Consumer Finance | -5.60% | 3.60% |
| Full Line Insurance | -6.01% | -33.77% |
| Mortgage Finance | -6.19% | -29.13% |
| Airlines | -6.34% | -30.52% |
| Home Construction | -6.83% | -2.49% |
| Tires | -7.31% | -13.91% |
Friday, June 06, 2008
Daily Sector Sort: 06.06--On 3 positive sectors.
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2 comments:
OIL - its on Everyone's Mind.
The Futures Curve for Crude:
When the oil market first spiked up at the end of May to $133,
ALL the contracts - all the way out to 2016 - went to new highs (as speculators rushed into the far out contracts throwing money at anything and everything 'Crude')
Notice on the recent $20+ move this week to a new spot price high near $140 --> that only the contracts up to about Sep09 followed the spot price and also spiked to new highs.
The further out contracts did not spike (yet)
The question is:
What portion of the curve:
(a) spot/near-term or
(b) further out
makes new highs first?
If spot/near-term markets make new highs and spike while the further out contracts don't follow - and then spot prices reverses - this could indicate a possible end of the move.
If however far out contracts start catching up to spot/near term (or go higher) - this could possibly indicate stagflation - and long term money moving into the commodity complex.
The question still remains of course what that high price will be $140 $150 $160 etc…
Just like $1000 gold – the speculators may have to be satisfied one way or another.
A further move above $140+ would be an overthrow of the long-term channel started way back in 1999 .
Such moves usually signal Trend Exhaustion (with or without a spike)
Most parabolic moves simply end--> with a move down that is as fast as the move up.
The exceptions could be cases where there is a major REAL supply disruption (not imagined) - or a REAL geopolitical event which ‘Changes Everything’ – at which point prices reach a new plateau a’la OPEC 70’s.
--
Manias are characterized by a market that stops focusing on near-term fundamentals and past performance – but instead begins to ‘imagine’ all the things that are going to happen years and years from now - as if they have already happened.
IMO a real supply disruption is going to have to materialize very very soon for oil to justify this recent move (and I for one hope that it does not maierialize) –
Otherwise: what goes up – must come down to some extent as Greed turns to Fear.
TOG, The ECONOMY
(A) The TOG
"Trade of the Generation"
Rising yields (bond bear market)
If TOG is to come into play, the best leading indicator for it to happen will be IMHO: Contango.
If all the far out contracts across the commodity complex begin to go into contango (far out contracts higher than near term prices) - and stay there - then interest rates will have to go up - no doubt about it.
Shortterm, Ben B may have a trick up his sleeve – having purposely lowered rates too low (after all these low rates aren’t really helping the credit crisis or homeowners to a large degree) – he may just raise them back up a bit to prop the dollar and end the immediate term speculation should the contracts go into contango.
However, cycles still point to one final whiff of deflation at the end of this decade – and my guess is that rates will either stay low or go lower at that time – providing a ‘means’ by which bonds are heavily heavily distributed to the public.
This could mark the beginning of the 'real' TOG.
(B) Role of Investment Banks:
Does anyone not find it irresponsible that investment houses should be shouting out and promoting $200 oil?
High oil prices do anyone little good (except certain insiders behind the scheme).
Is it not irresponsible to promote such a thing?
It is odd they are not calling for $3000 Gold.
No, Gold must stay down, buying gold is AntiAmerican.
But Oil – well that is a different story.
These investments banks are looking more and more childish in their actions– somewhat akin to all those that kept pumping stocks with calls for DOW 20000 or DOW 50000 in 1999.
Now, to be sure, during a natural disaster or geopolitical event - Oil could go anywhere, yet why the cheerleading?
Personally I'd be more concerned from a contrary standpoint if they were all calling for $75 oil.
(C) It's what we don't fear that is the real problem.
Remember Y2K?
Remember all the terrible things that were going to happen?
And then nothing - a non event.
Now the Oil market fears Iran.
This is an old story - sure something could happen - but his is not new news.
Personally I would fear what no one is talking about - or at least everyone is down playing: a US Dollar crisis:
It was a monetary crisis in 1972 that caused commodity price spikes and extreme market volatility -- as other countries wanted to break away from the agreed upon USD pegs.
The situation is very very similar now IMO.
So Gold despite manipulation still bears watching IMHO - as should what no one is talking about (a USD or monetary Crisis) happen, this would be Gold positive.
(D) The ECONOMY:
One final thought....
There has been a near 15-fold rise in Oil prices since 1998.
The financial elite and power controllers may be greedy, they may be conniving, some may even be corrupt - but they aren't dumb.
They are not going to shoot themselves in the foot or cut the hands off of those who feed them...
So, anyone who thinks that the financial planners are going to allow $150 or $200 oil to damage the world economy are dreaming IMHO.
Once the tipping point is reached (are we there yet?), rest assured at some point that Oil prices will inexplicably start falling.
...nice's weekend ramblings....
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