Now that I've posted this, I realize how suggestive the photo is. Oh well, a little titillation never did anyone any harm!As you can see from my previous post, I was able to re-tool my spreadsheet. What a pain. I ended up having to put a "control" column in so that I can see a problem easily.
Yesterday I made for dinner some Spicy Beef Empanadas. You'll remember that my son and I were making Spicy Shrimp empanadas as appetizers for our party. It was our first time, and I cannot say that our logistics were very good. As I made these empanadas, I was able to see how we could have made our job MUCH easier.
Investing isn't much different than anything else. You learn by doing. If you do, you will make mistakes. You learn from your mistakes. I'm reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's really a terrific book, and I wish I had read it sooner. I'd recommend it for your bookshelf too. Here's a couple of things that I wanted to share with you from that book:
I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up. . . . . But the average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground. (p. 71)
If a man didn't make mistakes, he'd own the world in a month. But if he didn't profit by his mistakes he wouldn't own a blessed thing. (P. 82)
3 comments:
Let's chat about Gold...
Gold bugs always want to buy the stuff - and the associated stocks.
Given that gold is rare (3 parts out of every billion of the earth's crust is gold) - one could see why.
But gold is not always a good investment - in fact Au has been a losing investment since 1980.
Times have changed.
The only time to buy gold is during a secular uptrend - and we are in that.
Within that uptrend though, buying on weakness like the goldbugs do appears to generate little profits.
Gold is not manipulated.
It is managed.
Why bet against the house (the managers) when they are actively managing it?
Better to buy when:
(a) There is a gold rush (recall early 2006)
Seems good to buy Gold when: it is going up - basically when there is momentum.
(b) Buy during times of fear and crisis (like the recent OCT-MAR period or during the runup to a War (but sell once the war starts)
All other times avoid Gold like the plague.
Timing entries:
(a) Fibonacci's work on Gold because it is essentially a psychogical trade (no one really knows what the price should be)
(b) Even more useful:
Shadow the action of the options traders on the GDX - they tend to be a little 'smarter' than the average 'bug'
(c) Leading indications:
Silver and stocks like FCX AEM
Ratios: Have not found that ratios against another asset that useful - as can one really say - what is overbought and oversold with a 'managed' thing like gold
Other thoughts:
(1) Ignore Sentiment Readings from Hulbert - gold due to investment money rushing in and out - not what newsletter writers think.
(2) Ignore proclaimed savants like Jim Sinclair - as sometimes even his tinfoil hat may receive a 'bad signal'
(3) Ignore me - what do I know.
lunch time ramblings...
Well, looks like the entire market has already traded in front of the CPI
Stocks expecting the worst - gold and oil expecting good things
The Banks.
Should one fade the banks - or 'fade the fade'?
Maybe a better action is to do nothing - they are already broken.
Oil: mandated to stay high until all these special meetings occur - where consumers can complain to OPEC - and the G8 has a good excuse for their problems??
Oil needs to fall 'on its own weight' IMO - not stories about them investigating this or investigating that.
After the meetings - then maybe some action...
Suncor SU getting hit hard - one of T Boones favorites - is he selling?? Or maybe its down because they are getting into the Ethanol boom(doggle?)
If the Green movement ever gets political control - I'd hate to own those Oil Sands stocks.
Alberta is beginning to look like a wasteland.
--
Leisa
How do you feel about the Airline or Chemical sectors - are they coming into the buy zone between now and the end of summer?
NG--I would never own an airline. Never. Chemicals...hard to know. I've been watching them--and they've been volatile.
I'm finding it interesting that many of the infrastructure plays (FWLT, MDR and others) are rolling over. I'll see about posting some charts.
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