Above is a picture of GE. A five year round trip to no where. I'll remind that this is a highly regarded company--And there was almost a daily parade of analysts recommending this stock on the global infrastructure boom. And if you bought on the dips on the slided down you would have only magnified your losses.
4 comments:
Exceptional volatility on today's triple witching...
Re: GE
What is interesting is that way back late last year - various bullish money managers and gurus like Don Hays etc.. we're all saying everyone should get in the market as
"the insiders are buying... the insiders are buying"
One thing interesting about this market - is that even the uberrich, elite have gotten caught - and they still try to average down on that 1/2 of the market that is in bear mode.
I saw an interview a while back on network television where they interviewed a former SEC expert who is no longer in the biz in any matter and so free to speak his mind - and he said: that the financial planners are in trouble because something has happened that they have not planned for - basically he said that they were 'all asleep at the switch'
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Are we gonna hold here or head to 1290?
Closing near the long term trendline from 2002/2003
A break of this trendline sub 1300 on Monday could be a 'nice' entry if one believes it is a fake-out and traders will cover by Tues ahead of the FOMC.
Scaled in a bit long here this afternoon, still holding a few shorts in case someone hits the 'panic' button on Monday.
(is the wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 about to unleash itself?)
Short sellers doing the rounds on Bloomberg - Ackerman pushing his stuff - T Boones Suncor still dumping - all the above 'Sold to ya'
Expecatations knocked down again - same setup as last quarter's earnings... one thing that does bug me is NASDAQ is not declining -as it was the last to rollover before as 'Fast Money' said 'tech is the safe place to be.
Anyone catch the interview on Bloomberg by the TrimTabs guy?
He said something really frank:
"Oil is not going up because there is a demand for oil - Oil is going up because there is a demand for OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS by long only investment funds'
I'd be surprised if the regulators did anything to kill the goose that layed the golden egg and put an end to the 'Swaps' on the Oil market - its making the oil clan a mint - maybe its the only thing generate enough dough to ductape the system together LOL.
If the regulators did plug the loopholes etc.. - it could be bigger than the Goldman Commodity Rebalancing on energy in 2006 - but I'm not holding my breath.
nice
leisa/nice-
i got nailed this week, to the tune of -4.8%...instead of taking profits when i had them (refiners certainly rallied at one point...and when my wife asked why i passed up a 9% gain on UAUA at the close yesterday i told her i was waiting for 25%-> LOL!), i decided to hang on for (larger, of course) longer term gains....
airlines/TSO/VLO/SUN/CAF/SMN/DUG-> the last two positions posted modest gains today, but losses on everything else landed me in the woodshed...could not have picked a better combination for getting whacked if i'd tried...
hope you both did better...enjoy the weekend...
2nd
2nd
This is a tough market IMO - as we can see by the recent sector report Leisa has kindly posted this pm.
fwiw - I am netting about $300-$400 a day intraday trading - but am getting killed on my shortterm countertrend trades held over several days-
I'm going to beat myself silly this weekend until I learn to take profits quicker and quicker when I have them.
The seasonality in May/June & early July is usually very choppy - but this is a bit ridiculous.
The market tone usually improves after that.
I was encouraged from a sentiment perspective to see the bears doing the rounds this week on the Media, then there was KASS et al who are ALL IN - plus Ackerman came out with his usual warnings, we had Depression warnings, and all the Bear Hedge Fund managers (Pearson etc..) warning of $1 Trillion in losses, Bill Cara Blog was all talking about shorting methods, T Boone on capital Hill saying Oil was going up up up...
As far as commodity shorts- I'm not holding my breath - but the bellwether Canadian market has been under severe distribution and suffered a big whack down this week.
My concern is that earnings are approaching again - and while expectations have been pushed down for the financials - all the tech favs are not dropping - so it's hard to see any catalyst (other than dropping oil)
Also I don't know if others noticed - but the past 10 days have witnessed something different in the market: the market is not rising with oil anymore --> it is all selling down. That's probably a good thing...
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In accordance with the usual cycles/years ending in 08 etc-
I pegged this year to have 2 down moves (each one a W bottom)
We had the 1st one in Jan (retested in Mar)
The second one in 08 years usually occurs in the early Fall - but my fear would be that it is happening now..
Evidence for it happening now - would be if everything now starts going down - because in a final down move - It ALL goes down.
BUT If usual seasonal/cycle/decade patterns are to play out - we should get a bounce early July into mid August - then the final down move in the Fall.
Of course if another bank is going under soon - none of the usual rules/cycles etc apply - and the bears will get a decisive victory sooner rather than later.
Things are also complicated by the fact that without a catalyst, upside is limited (because many people have bought at higher levels - and are all trying to get their money back on every little bounce)
--->Still I like to play the odds and time patterns - so I'll assume that things go as outlined above time-wise - since things have played out this way so many other years and decades
---> but I'll keep positions small and have a quicker trigger finger...
'have a good weekend
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