Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Japanese rates went up to .5% from .25%.

There's been much opining about what a raise in the rates might do for the carry trade. I suppose we will see if the hand wringing and gnashing of teeth as forecast will materialize if this becomes a trend, but from what I've read. Here's an excerpt from the Financial Times:

"Great headlines, but the ramifications are altogether more modest. Outside Japan, investors can shrug it off. Raising interest rates 25 basis points barely moves the needle on the carry trade, since volatility is low and yawning differentials still exist with the major currencies. Indeed, some may even be unaffected. Tightening is on the cards in Europe. Just hours before Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui spoke, his opposite number in Australia signalled further tightening there and New Zealand is expected to hike next month. So Japanese investors’ yen for Aussie and Kiwi dollar uridashi bonds will be unabated."

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