Tuesday, July 08, 2008

A. M. Post

In pulling together the sector numbers, I see that the WSJ has made YET another change (there seems to be a change a day for the last three days). I've "captured" the data, but I've not put it in my spreadsheet. I didn't have it in me to change the formatting last night. I'm just going to create a blank spreadsheet and dump it in.

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My translation (Cleary) of the Book of Five Rings contains a second book, The Book of Family Traditions on the Art of War by Yagyu Munenori. Under the chapter entitled, The Killing Sword, there is this passage: "There is a science to the use of arms. If you try to kill someone without knowing the science, you will probably get killed yourself." Otherwise stated: If you try to trade without knowing the science, you will probably lose all of your money.

8 comments:

nice said...

Good 2 day bounce in the airlines...

Yesterday a popularly followed economist said to sell airlines...

Economists make bad traders in the short term - do the opposite...

Interesting to see resource stocks now being sold when the underlying commodity moves up - that happens I guess when everyone was overweight 1 or 2 sectors...

nice

nice said...

Is anyone getting tired of this?

Oil goes up 50cents market goes down 3 points..
Oil goes down 50cents market goes up 3 points...

LOL

S&P 500 has been downtrending for 15 days now without a close above the previous day's high...

wanna play the odds?

nice

nice said...

A 'nice guy' said

"S&P 500 has been downtrending for 15 days now without a close above the previous day's high...

wanna play the odds?"

... You played the odds right???

Always plays to play the odds...

nice

nice said...

LOL

Notice today that the market did not want to go up until 2:30

Ben B made assurances - market sold off ..

Oil was down - but after initial positive reaction - market went down.

Even Freddie and Fannie after the government said everything was OK - did not want to go up in the morning...

Then...

All of a sudden those BUY programs kicked in... and the market rises..

Now the financial media does an about face - and throws out yesterdays' Indymac FRE FMN 'bear market has started' stories -

and is now telling the public what todays bounce 'means':

"there is light at the end of the tunnel"

Who thinks some of these stories were already written? LOL

I'm still amused that every intraday move up in the market is interpreted by many as some manipulation by the HB&B or some other acronym...

Future premiums refused to drop all day every time the cash price dipped - that combined with the fact that we had 15 days in a row of not being able to close above or near yesterday's high - gave high odds for an upmove into the close.

However still a bit odd that the Asian ADR's did not trade higher in the session...

nice

Anonymous said...

nice- are you still short oil? hope so..it's been a 'nice' week so far...

2nd

nice said...

2nd

Was short from up in the 140's and covered yesterday (nice!)-

IMO the action in oil prior to the recent decline was B.S - all the gains in oil were happening in the afterhours market on low volume

Did go long Oil yesterday and sold into the opening bounce on the Iran Missiles stuff (ok profit)

Not sure what to do next - 143.5 139.5 133.2 126 are some of the levels I'm lookin at...

Seems like there is some kind of trade (or operation?) going on where the S&P500 is sold everytime oil tries to move up...

To be honest I've been doing better buying stocks (such as some of your picks) that benefit when oil falls...

CAF appears to be holding the support levels we discussed a while back - and has been showing relative strength the last 4 days - so far so good...

Still a pretty tricky market - and could remain so until after we get some earnings from some of the 'big guns -

Mostly watching the USD latetly - its at the bottom of its short term uptrend channel - what's been interesting lately is that even as the 10yr yield has been dropping the USD has held up a bit...

good luck..

nice

nice said...

Jim Cramer told viewers of CNBC's "Stop Trading!" segment Wednesday to avoid financials.

... and.... people sold...

Jim cramer said to sell GM at $11 2 weeks ago - 2 days later after his recommendation it went to $13 in a short covering rally...

Basically the bears are feeding stories to Jim Cramer - after all - his recommendations lately are done after the stocks he pans are oversold in all timeframes...

--

People are aware right that Ben and Paulson are testifying tomorrow?

No one wanted to stick around?

That is understandable - and they mini intraday panic offered good trades for shorting...

The gold stocks left one of those upside down hammer thingie's - sell those instead?

Or are we entering the point where the 'truth must be told'

The market is really weak - and the large commerical banks did not add back to any of the large S&P contract position they dumped at the end of last month...

Intraday however...
The cash S&P dropped 20 points - the futures did not...

I'm not so sure I would be wanting to hold a large short position ovennight into tomorrow's testimony...

1220 is getting closer...

nice

nice said...

$XOI is at it's 300 day moving average..

The 300 dma has been a support area for the oil stocks throughout the entire bull market...

How $XOI behaves around this moving average could hold the key to unlocking oils future direction...

palce your bets...

nice