Monday, December 01, 2008

A Few Things

Tanta, the brilliant writer at Calculated Risk passed on Sunday from ovarian cancer. She was a young, 47. I always enjoyed her writing--particularly having studied much of the stuff on my own. So seeing here experienced eye and clear writing helped solidify the concepts for me. I had the pleasure of exchanging a couple of e-mails with her as well. Though I don't visit Calculated Risk very often of late, Tanta's passing is sorrowful for me. She contributed so much.

Contrahour has a missive by Martin Armstrong. Armstrong's writings helped me solidify my understanding of the role of off-index debt in market crashes, and I wrote about it here (look for Martin ARmstrong tags or do a search). Here's his new missive:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/files/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

UYG: Ouch! Why I'm still hanging on is a mystery even to me.

Recession: Started in December of 2007 as confirmed today--and entire year later. Remember, recessions like bear market bottoms and market tops can only be incontrovertibly called by looking in the rear view mirror. In August of 2007, I felt that we would be in a recession not later than Spring of 2008. My antennae were good.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Leisa

I'm Going on an early winter vacation this year... but hope to be back early Jan...

I unloaded most trading positions Fri and this morning...

Keeping 10% invested in the long term account with some standing orders at S&P 750 700 650 etc...

Listening to Bernanke and Paulsons speeches today - they seem really at a loss to fix things - having tried everything...

Market is going to have to repair itself now..

Next market event is probably what happens to GM - most importantly and how it affects the corporate bond market...

The next bullish economic oriented cycle starts in Mid December

... best wishes...

see ya next year...

nice

Leisa♠ said...

Enjoy your time away. You've had good trading, and should enjoy a respite from this market!

See you next year.

russell1200 said...

Tanta was younger than I thought, but it was sort of obvious she was not feeling well much of the time.