Monday, December 01, 2008

A Few Things

Tanta, the brilliant writer at Calculated Risk passed on Sunday from ovarian cancer. She was a young, 47. I always enjoyed her writing--particularly having studied much of the stuff on my own. So seeing here experienced eye and clear writing helped solidify the concepts for me. I had the pleasure of exchanging a couple of e-mails with her as well. Though I don't visit Calculated Risk very often of late, Tanta's passing is sorrowful for me. She contributed so much.

Contrahour has a missive by Martin Armstrong. Armstrong's writings helped me solidify my understanding of the role of off-index debt in market crashes, and I wrote about it here (look for Martin ARmstrong tags or do a search). Here's his new missive:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/files/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf

UYG: Ouch! Why I'm still hanging on is a mystery even to me.

Recession: Started in December of 2007 as confirmed today--and entire year later. Remember, recessions like bear market bottoms and market tops can only be incontrovertibly called by looking in the rear view mirror. In August of 2007, I felt that we would be in a recession not later than Spring of 2008. My antennae were good.

3 comments:

nice said...

Hi Leisa

I'm Going on an early winter vacation this year... but hope to be back early Jan...

I unloaded most trading positions Fri and this morning...

Keeping 10% invested in the long term account with some standing orders at S&P 750 700 650 etc...

Listening to Bernanke and Paulsons speeches today - they seem really at a loss to fix things - having tried everything...

Market is going to have to repair itself now..

Next market event is probably what happens to GM - most importantly and how it affects the corporate bond market...

The next bullish economic oriented cycle starts in Mid December

... best wishes...

see ya next year...

nice

Leisa said...

Enjoy your time away. You've had good trading, and should enjoy a respite from this market!

See you next year.

russell1200 said...

Tanta was younger than I thought, but it was sort of obvious she was not feeling well much of the time.