Saturday, December 06, 2008
Inflationistas v. Deflationistas
If you were to read nothing else today, I would recommend your reading the above article at John Mauldin's website. Click on the graphic above to be transported.
It seems that we are caught in a couple of battles that could leave one decidedly the cross fire of the inflationistas and the deflationistas. The recessionistas have already taken the hill and planted the flag--they watch in curious apprehension as to the winner of that battle.
While I see D-day in the offing, I do not have any clear-sighted understanding of any of this. I realized just how pygmied my mind was when I ventured to read Krugman's articles on Japanese deflation. Oh, I'll get through it sometime, but one has to muster fortitude to do so. Such articles are not accessible to laypersons such as myself without much mental work.
The second fight is that of what any of this means with respect to the stock market. Some contend the bottom is in and admonish you not to be caught on the sidelines for the greatest buying opportunity ever. You remember of course the chorus of folks warning that we will run out of oil, and it will be $200 per barrel when it was barreling toward $150. Now those same voices are saying that we could hit $25.
It is always useful to engage in a little "What do you have to believe is true?" discussion for the next bull market to be upon us. I've not formulated my thoughts on that just yet, and I'm out the door now, to visit my Dad in the hospital (stent procedure that was successful).