Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Long Term Perspective

Above is a monthly chart (click to make larger) of the NYSE composite. I drew fibs from the 1991 bottom to the most recent top for your viewing pleasure. Earnings season continues to offer a mixed bag with JNJ missing yesterday redeemed by INTC and JPM--both of which are offering some turbo charge to the futures.

I'm still of the mind that we've not had a constructive bottom. For those concerned about volume, the volume bars are still higher (ignore the last one as we are in a 1/2 month), post crash than pre crash.

Anyway, the big picture is always interesting to view; and we are undeniably at an important juncture. Ultimately, liquidity and emotion trump technicals--to important technical junctures (however one defines them) fail. If they didn't then you'd have a printing press, and nothing is so easy as that.

5 comments:

Glenn_in_MA said...

Interesting chart indeed and one I hadn't recently viewed. I've been focusing on the SP500 and MSCI world index. What is the ULT on top? At first I thought I was looking at RSI and thought it looked odd without any periods at 30 or below that corresponded with the important bottoms.

Leisa said...

Hi Glenn:

ULT is the Ultimate oscillator. You can read about it here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ultimate_oscillator

Leisa said...

http://tinyurl.com/ygblk5u

I think I need a tiny URL!

Anonymous said...

Hi L. I don't like the looks of things here and if I were an intermediate term investor I'd be locking in some profits. An intraday reversal would just about cement my misgivings about this market. Model is FIRMLY in the yellow zone after last week.

Raising cash from your weakest performers seems to be "costless" here.

Gold bellcow looks tired as well. I'd bring her in the barn for a rest.

MarkM

Leisa said...

I'm pretty heavily cash with a few put positions....a few long positions. Overall neutral. Seems like AUX would be a juicy short given that they relieved themselves of their gold hedges.