Here's a snapshot of SPY. Click to make larger.
See my notes on the chart. We many not quite be at the edge of the cliff to dive off. I surely do not know, but from the H&S pattern (in cyan), the great promise of that chart did not deliver. To be sure, this rally is getting long in the tooth, and the easy money (is there such a thing?) has already been made.
Here's a one minute chart from today.
I would have had a better view of this if (1) my cable was not out and I could hear the TV and (2) if Fidelity had not become a pig. I knew the market was moving fast because of the Fidelity issue. I wasn't moving any merchandise though.
Below is a longer term chart.
We are getting into a vulnerable period of memory on the p/v chart. At any rate, the chart suggests that we need some consolidation of gains.
There is some attribution to the sell-off to Dick Bove, who single-handedly missed the bank stock debacle and believed that @ $40 (on its way down to <$1) that C was the buy of a lifetime, believed that loan losses were accelerating.
You will remember, that on September 14, I expressed concern that bank loan losses could be significantly higher than they have been in past recessions largely due to the poor underwriting and the inflated asset values. Well, looks like my eye and surmising are not so far off the mark.
I closed my CFR put position out today for a gain. The stock did not react as negatively to earnings as I expected. AS these were front month options (ex NOV) AND the stock was bouncing strongly upward from its low, I sold just off the low. Sadly, the stock moved very quickly and I had an iffy connection. So I made a gain, but one that diminished rather rapidly. I did sell at the high of the day a PIECE of the position.
I still have NOV 57.5 COST puts. Yes, I went to that well again after having drank from the poisonous bowels of it before. But....they are in the green today.
I hope that your day was a good one. It is nice to see both Glenn and Mark posting. I may have to dust out the cobwebs in the woodshed!
P. S. Nikkei is down as I write.