Monday, September 29, 2008

Another Day (week, month, year) of Goofiness

I'm still have two feet rather firmly planted in the land of deflation. Yes, I am a 'nobody', and I know that my opinion is not based on any informed experience in navigating a portfolio consciously (I was unconscious for too long) through bull/bear markets.

But I still have to ask the question, "What will lead us out of this bear market?" I've still not seen any piles of sparkling jewels hidden in the bushes like in some video game. In fact, I feel like I'm in one of those video games....going round and a'round because I cannot find my way out. Attacked on this side, that side by evil gnomes wielding sharp instruments. Wizards in the distance saying come here, go there and all will be well.

I'm putting on my magic cloak that makes me invisible and mutes everyone else.


I have a subscription to SFO magazine (www.sfomag.com) There was a wonderful "Tech Take" at the end of the June 2008. You can find the article here. I strongly urge you to read it. I only recently found it in my reading basket in the WC. You gotta make good use of your seat time!

Miscellaneous ramblings:

  • Meredith Whitney seems to have incontrovertibly won in the bank analyst smack down with Dick Bove.
  • Letting Lehman fail---that the ramifications of this were not apparent to those making the decision makes me less confident.
  • Though I've been on the fence about the election, I have made my choice--not so much through my being enamored with my choice, but rather through my ruling that I was completely incapable of voting for the other candidate. I consider it my duty to choose as a citizen between the two candidates offered. So there....I've made my decision without offering a disparaging comment about the other candidate!

4 comments:

nice guy said...

"Nice' to be back...

Good timing too

6 year cycle ends tomorrow...

Time to begin the process of buying for long term accounts now...

Could be further margin selling over next few days..
Also risk of further deleveraging.
And panic...

Not sure about Bill Cara's call esp. regarding materials leading any recovery - China is almost completely out of the market right now - so no doubt 'they' want material prices to collapse before buying - that said zinc and nickel have already collapsed so maybe Cara is right (and base metal stocks have already led the commodity decline)

IMO this whole charade has been planned - with J P Morgan, GS, MS, BAC left standing - the rest crumble - BUT all the derivatives are now contained amongst this clique.

As far as the on again off again voting on this 'bailout' package - this is another charade.

The package is meaningless IMHO.

Bernanke is already funneling 100billions a week into where it is needed.

Also by holding a gun to Congress's head Paulson and Bernanke have an 'out' either way:

With the 'no vote' they crash the market. Then if a yes vote comes and the market stabilizes - they including Congress can all take credit and give the illusion that this package is going to work - and confidence is restored.

But if things continue to deteriorate - then Paulson and Ben B can say: 'We warned you (congress) - but you did not pass the bill AS WE WANTED IT'

Either way the bankers win.

Anyways - its not a 'real' panic (yet) as ABX is up 6%...

Many people will be selling now - just because they 'have to' - ---> forced liquidation and panics are usually the best buying opps.
(As opposed to all the useless buying opps we have heard from every single talking head all year)

Anyways the market has just been itching for a big sell off all year... it'll be 'nice' to clear the deck and start over...

nice


nice

Leisa said...

Welcome back! Crazy days. AGree that we've wanted/needed a washout....but I'm not sure that it is a curative in the short term.

sysin3 said...

(I think) the reason these cycles are about 80 years long is that all of the folks who have experienced the previous "unpleasantness" have to die off before the new crop of losers takes their place.

as we are living longer, these cycles may tend to expand a bit in the future.

Leisa said...

Sysin--that's a very insightful observation!