Tuesday, November 04, 2008
As so much about the market is psychological, I wonder about the rather dramatic bear markets of 2000-2002 and the current bear market upon us and their collective effect on the psychology of the baby boomers. I think it is fair to say that as credit contracts (through reduction in home equity values as well as real contraction) combined with higher unemployment, that we will see less employee AND employer contributions to 401(k) plans. Further, we have wholesale implosion of hedge funds (through their own liquidity contraction).
From where will the money come to fuel the stock market's next rise? The rocket fuel for the last blast is mostly spent. I see rumblings now about this or that emanating from the 'new' administration. Overall, though, I'm having a difficult time seeing the rocket fuel--but perhaps it will simply be from Treasuries?
GDX was up 13.76% today. I have one mining stock: TGB. It has recovered meagerly from its swan dive! I'm still underwater, but hanging on. I sold WX today. Perhaps another future lament. I also sold UYG. I had nice gains over a very short period of time in both of them (20% & 34%, respectively). These were both in a SEP IRA account, that I returned fully to cash. Remember EGO? I'm not in it any more, but it was up 23=% today. You might want to take a look at some gold mining stocks! (Pehaps an insurrection is being priced in!)
UPW and SSO turned green today. I still have FSIN and SSRX, but these are very small positions--as were WX and UYG. I consider any gain to be sort of like a dividend!
I hope that you had a good day. Tonight will be interesting no matter what happens. Seeing the market's reaction will be interesting too!