Daily Sector Sort: 05.30.08

Sector/Subsector	Day	YTD (-1 day)
Coal	3.67%	38.00%
Heavy Construction	3.12%	3.85%
Steel	2.78%	25.18%
Nonferrous Metals	2.34%	5.15%
Exploration & Production	1.97%	17.07%
Recreational Services	1.71%	-14.23%
Specialty Chemicals	1.68%	7.20%
Electrical Components & Equipment	1.50%	-2.18%
Gold Mining	1.43%	-7.83%
Semiconductors	1.42%	-6.63%
Aerospace	1.41%	-8.06%
Brewers	1.36%	8.74%
Mobile Telecommunications	1.36%	-20.21%
Electronic Equipment	1.35%	-1.71%
Full Line Insurance	1.32%	-35.64%
Industrial Machinery	1.31%	7.50%
Railroads	1.22%	36.59%
Computer Hardware	1.18%	-7.13%
Industrial Suppliers	1.17%	9.16%
Consumer Electronics	1.15%	-47.66%
Tires	1.06%	-13.74%
Business Support Services	0.96%	1.28%
Automobiles	0.94%	-13.85%
Marine Transportation	0.93%	4.31%
Travel & Tourism	0.87%	-8.85%
Oil Equipment & Services	0.86%	12.32%
Water	0.83%	-20.09%
Telecommunications Equipment	0.79%	-0.94%
Nondurable Household Products	0.79%	-11.13%
Platinum & Precious Metals	0.71%	47.52%
Media Agencies	0.65%	3.05%
Waste & Disposal Services	0.61%	10.27%
Financial Administration	0.61%	-5.30%
Aluminum	0.61%	9.29%
Trucking	0.51%	21.36%
Defense	0.50%	2.35%
Auto Parts	0.46%	-2.71%
Tobacco	0.46%	-2.88%
Distillers & Vintners	0.44%	-1.99%
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks	0.44%	2.68%
Pharmaceuticals	0.41%	-11.18%
Medical Equipment	0.41%	-0.82%
Personal Products	0.41%	-4.49%
Diversified Industrials	0.36%	-11.88%
Durable Household Products	0.34%	-7.53%
Specialized Consumer Services	0.24%	-10.37%
Software	0.24%	-10.19%
Internet	0.22%	-9.60%
Gas Distribution	0.22%	8.38%
Toys	0.21%	2.00%
Integrated Oil & Gas	0.20%	-0.90%
Commodity Chemicals	0.18%	6.45%
Computer Services	0.15%	14.93%
Food Producers	0.14%	0.83%
Pipelines	0.09%	7.10%
Biotechnology	0.08%	5.52%
Food Retailers & Wholesalers	0.08%	-5.41%
Building Materials & Fixtures	0.07%	-0.73%
Multiutilities	0.05%	-3.22%
Specialty Retailers	0.04%	-2.87%
Asset Managers	0.03%	-9.49%
Drug Retailers	0.03%	-0.68%
Gambling	0.02%	-22.27%
Electricity	-0.05%	-3.67%
Reinsurance	-0.08%	-10.23%
Containers & Packaging	-0.14%	0.52%
Real Estate Holding & Development	-0.14%	1.88%
Broadcasting & Entertainment	-0.15%	0.73%
Transportation Services	-0.18%	34.74%
Property & Casualty Insurance	-0.19%	-6.94%
Publishing	-0.26%	-12.56%
Footwear	-0.34%	0.52%
Medical Supplies	-0.35%	-1.62%
Investment Services	-0.36%	-24.70%
Fixed Line Telecommunications	-0.38%	-6.18%
Health Care Providers	-0.40%	-22.43%
Restaurants & bars	-0.42%	0.68%
Furnishings	-0.49%	-12.03%
Real Estate Investment Trusts	-0.52%	5.53%
Electronic Office Equipment	-0.53%	-11.67%
Delivery Services	-0.55%	2.88%
Broadline Retailers	-0.57%	10.04%
Paper	-0.63%	-15.76%
Recreational Products	-0.65%	-21.79%
Insurance Brokers	-0.68%	0.95%
Home Construction	-0.73%	-0.36%
Mortgage Finance	-0.76%	-29.10%
Business Training & Employment Agencies	-0.84%	-3.75%
Soft Drinks	-0.84%	-8.52%
Airlines	-0.85%	-36.15%
Life Insurance	-0.92%	-6.15%
Consumer Finance	-0.98%	2.98%
Banks	-1.21%	-13.26%
Hotels	-1.28%	-1.26%
Home Improvement Retailers	-1.42%	5.14%
Apparel Retailers	-1.50%	0.93%
Clothing & Accessories	-1.70%	11.86%
Specialty Finance	-1.81%	-11.02%
Forestry	-7.58%	-8.54%

Patient Industry (No, it is not about hospitals!)

I used to keep a very detailed notebook of things that I've read and notes about the market. In fact, I wrote a post encouraging you to do the same. I have to admit that I've done less of that. However, I suppose that I could reasonably construe my blog as a notebook without feeling guilty of engaging in hyperbole.

Nevertheless, I do have notebooks of articles and other "stuff" that I've found of interest. I resurrected by "Stockcharts" notebook. I printed every single technical analysis article. It is every bit as good as any book that you could buy.

The print date shows these were printed on 11/06/2005. Yes, I probably spent an entire day printing out these pages. In fact, I also spent an entire weekend reading these from start to finish.

That effort is 2 1/2 years old. And I've much more experience under my belt. Accordingly, I thought that it would be a good refresher course for me to look at this material with "fresh" eyes. I'm a firm believer in the following tenets regarding investing/trading:There's a time to buy, sell and wait like a spider.

I'm also a firm believer that if you buy a stock regardless of how great the fundamentals appear to be, if the technical picture is looking a little frayed, then it may not be the time to buy. In fact, it might be the time to sell. Or, if the chart seems a bit indeterminate, you could merely wait like a spider. I suppose if I were a wildly successful investor, I could write a book called "Invest/trade Like a Spider".

Why the spider analogy? Admittedly, spiders creep many folks out. I happen to like them. I don't kill them in my home. But I don't have any spider tattoos either! What I like about the spider analogy is that it connotes an industry while waiting. Web-building spiders depend on their web location and building skills in order to capture the food payload. That's what I mean by the term "industry while waiting". Building the web is industry. And being patient and conserving resources in order to run out and secure the caught prey is an important part of success.

Part of our success, then, needs to be in cultivating "patient industry". Remember my project in Jan/Feb of uploading the ticker symbols into StockCharts? That was patient industry. And I've evolved that patient industry into reviewing charts and then looking at fundamentals. If there's an intersection, then I buy. I'm finding that my success has improved greatly by deploying this means. I'm also not underestimating experience either--I've more experience and can assimilate data more quickly and make a decision on it than I used to.

My patient industry is just that MY patient industry. It doesn't have to be YOUR patient industry; but do ensure that you have a patient industry.

Self Congratulations, Oil, Bonds and Gold

My arm is sore from patting myself on the back. I seldom do this, so your indulgence is appreciated. Both last week and this week the oil inventories have shown unexpected draws. I wondered aloud if it were not the draw that was so high but rather the INPUT that was low.

Voila!

Oil prices fell sharply Thursday after the Energy Department reported unexpected declines in crude oil supplies last week but said the drop was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast.

Pat....Pat...Pat...OUCH! It's the news that you do not hear that is important. Now please tell me why some self respecting journalist was not on these specious 'draws'? When you take inventory, you are counting one thing, and one thing only--the quantity on hand. The quantity on hand is based on inputs (how much inventory did you buy) and outputs (how much inventory did you sell or otherwise dispose of (obsolescence). So be aware that when you hear that there is a surprise "draw" that is an misnomer. The surprise is that the inventory level, in this case oil, is lower/higher than expectations. That can mean that some combination of supply/demand (inputs/outputs) contributed. Why the heck don't hey just say so?

The specter of demand that is outstripping supply suddenly is vanquished when you realize that Mother Nature's obfuscation--in the guise of FOG--has hampered the inputs. Nobody is wringing their hands at the oil field saying, "Oh my, what to do; we can't pump it as fast as they want it."


Bond prices are falling (and yields are commensurately lifting).


Inflation now becomes less of a worry with oil coming down and interest rates going up. But...higher rates do not bode well for the consumer and for many businesses. Gold mining stocks do not like it much either.



And we should close with a chart of industrial metals which I've been writing about here:


The picture above is of Annubis--but Annubis is now commodities.

Today's Daily Sector Sort

Sector/Subsector	Day	YTD (-1 day)
Airlines	4.73%	-39.04%
Paper	3.60%	-18.69%
Biotechnology	2.65%	2.79%
Consumer Electronics	2.60%	-48.99%
Railroads	2.39%	33.40%
Brewers	2.31%	6.28%
Mobile Telecommunications	2.31%	-22.01%
Specialty Finance	2.29%	-13.00%
Consumer Finance	2.19%	0.77%
Clothing & Accessories	2.17%	9.48%
Gambling	2.03%	-23.81%
Business Training & Employment Agencies	2.01%	-5.65%
Specialized Consumer Services	1.94%	-12.07%
Mortgage Finance	1.89%	-30.42%
Internet	1.86%	-11.25%
Property & Casualty Insurance	1.80%	-8.58%
Insurance Brokers	1.80%	-0.82%
Toys	1.79%	0.21%
Banks	1.76%	-14.76%
Travel & Tourism	1.75%	-10.41%
Furnishings	1.74%	-13.53%
Publishing	1.67%	-13.99%
Business Support Services	1.64%	-0.36%
Apparel Retailers	1.62%	-0.68%
Specialty Retailers	1.61%	-4.41%
Fixed Line Telecommunications	1.61%	-7.67%
Delivery Services	1.60%	1.26%
Asset Managers	1.59%	-10.91%
Media Agencies	1.54%	1.49%
Telecommunications Equipment	1.50%	-2.40%
Trucking	1.50%	19.56%
Pharmaceuticals	1.50%	-12.48%
Restaurants & bars	1.47%	-0.77%
Investment Services	1.43%	-25.76%
Health Care Providers	1.38%	-23.48%
Footwear	1.37%	-0.84%
Real Estate Investment Trusts	1.35%	4.12%
Medical Supplies	1.31%	-2.88%
Full Line Insurance	1.31%	-36.47%
Medical Equipment	1.30%	-2.09%
Reinsurance	1.30%	-11.39%
Auto Parts	1.29%	-3.94%
Life Insurance	1.27%	-7.33%
Tobacco	1.26%	-4.08%
Broadline Retailers	1.25%	8.68%
Durable Household Products	1.23%	-8.65%
Containers & Packaging	1.22%	-0.69%
Industrial Suppliers	1.08%	8.00%
Drug Retailers	1.03%	-1.69%
Distillers & Vintners	1.02%	-2.98%
Home Improvement Retailers	1.02%	4.08%
Nondurable Household Products	0.97%	-11.98%
Personal Products	0.96%	-5.40%
Soft Drinks	0.95%	-9.38%
Tires	0.91%	-14.52%
Food Producers	0.81%	0.02%
Software	0.79%	-10.90%
Electricity	0.77%	-4.41%
Marine Transportation	0.67%	3.61%
Transportation Services	0.63%	33.89%
Waste & Disposal Services	0.60%	9.62%
Food Retailers & Wholesalers	0.55%	-5.93%
Automobiles	0.55%	-14.33%
Computer Services	0.52%	14.34%
Recreational Services	0.51%	-14.67%
Recreational Products	0.51%	-22.18%
Computer Hardware	0.50%	-7.59%
Electronic Office Equipment	0.48%	-12.09%
Industrial Machinery	0.41%	7.06%
Building Materials & Fixtures	0.41%	-1.13%
Financial Administration	0.40%	-5.68%
Electronic Equipment	0.39%	-2.10%
Diversified Industrials	0.39%	-12.22%
Real Estate Holding & Development	0.25%	1.62%
Broadcasting & Entertainment	0.17%	0.56%
Aerospace	0.13%	-8.18%
Defense	0.11%	2.24%
Water	0.00%	-20.09%
Commodity Chemicals	-0.14%	6.59%
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks	-0.16%	2.84%
Electrical Components & Equipment	-0.17%	-2.02%
Multiutilities	-0.23%	-3.00%
Gas Distribution	-0.31%	8.72%
Forestry	-0.37%	-8.20%
Specialty Chemicals	-0.46%	7.70%
Semiconductors	-0.75%	-5.93%
Heavy Construction	-0.92%	4.82%
Pipelines	-0.97%	8.14%
Home Construction	-1.05%	0.70%
Hotels	-1.23%	-0.04%
Integrated Oil & Gas	-1.47%	0.57%
Oil Equipment & Services	-2.21%	14.86%
Gold Mining	-2.86%	-5.12%
Aluminum	-2.92%	12.58%
Coal	-3.06%	42.37%
Exploration & Production	-3.20%	20.95%
Steel	-3.27%	29.40%
Nonferrous Metals	-4.61%	10.23%
Platinum & Precious Metals	-4.82%	54.97%

A Late Start

It is 9 a.m.,and I'm just getting out of bed. Ugh! I never sleep so late, but I had a fitful night last night. I went to a new restaurant in town; and it was extraordinarily well reviewed. However, their use of salt was overpowering. I had a lobster/sweet potato soup and the salt overwhelmed the dish. My entree was a phylo-encased Atlantic salmon with goat cheese and portabello mushrooms. It was resting on a bed of wilted spinach--the spinach was inedible as it tasted as if it were brined. Too much sodium is not agreeable to me, and I think that contributed to my wakefulness.

Plus, Daisy (English Setter) gets thirsty. That dog drinks more water than any animal I've ever seen (though she also runs all of her waking hours). She sleeps in our bedroom on a comfy bed. I clip her to my makeup table (my grandmother's old Singer peddle sewing machine); otherwise, she'll decide to get up, get water, pee someplace and poop if the mood strikes her. If she is uncomfortable (too much thirst, etc) she starts woofing. So a pop out the door around 2:30 was in order. Macy, naturally, had to go out too and supervise. Afterwards, I tossed in bed with my sodium level increased to toxic levels. The train came through around 3:44 a.m. Norfolk/Southern tracks run behind my home--a comfortable distance away, but the sound carries. There is something mildly wistful about hearing a train in the tender hours of the morning. This morning was no different. But when the alarm went off, I told Mark I would sleep in. I don't remember the last time I rolled out of bed at 9:00 a.m.

In addition to all of that night time activity, I'm still working off the tiredness from the weekend. My age is catching up with me! It might surprise you to learn that cooking is physically intensive. And putting in two back to back days of 17 and 15 hour days left me realizing that I'm still recovering from an injury! Though I have to admit that my foot hung in there better than I expected--but my ankle did swell in protest to a level I've not seen in a while!

~~~~~~~~~~

Enough about my luxuriating in bed!


The following is from Martin Goldberg's blog. I have his blog as a resource, and I hope that you visit there from time to time. He has a wonderful concision to his blogs and his writing that I could certainly model! I seldom lift entire blog entries by any, but I thought this one to be important and speaks clearly to the "quality" of the recent rally. And if you visit StockTiming.com you'll see a good article on the new high/new lows and what that means for the market.

Chart of Fed Ex Speaks Volumes about the March Rally

The technical picture of Fed Ex is so clear that it can be seen in a small chart. Here $80/share is important long term technical support. $100/share is resistance. After hours, Fed Ex announced that their earnings would be hurt again by higher fuel prices, and the stock traded down into the high 80's after hours friday. This event confirms that the rally from support at 80 to resistance at 100 had no fundamental basis - it was based purely on market optimism. It is my view, that the broad market rally off of the March lows were similarly based on optimism in its purest form as was seen in Fed Ex. This conclusion will be confirmed when (if) there is a similar decisive failure at S&P 500 1400, Russell 2000 at 735, and Wilshire 5000 at 14,000.

Daily Sector Sort: 05.28.08

Sector/Subsector	Day	YTD (1)
Steel	4.37%	23.98%
Coal	4.36%	36.42%
Specialty Chemicals	4.20%	3.35%
Forestry	3.61%	-11.40%
Travel & Tourism	3.15%	-13.15%
Aluminum	2.94%	9.36%
Recreational Services	2.60%	-16.83%
Paper	2.54%	-20.71%
Mobile Telecommunications	2.50%	-23.91%
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks	2.49%	0.35%
Apparel Retailers	2.45%	-3.05%
Clothing & Accessories	2.41%	6.91%
Delivery Services	2.33%	-1.05%
Oil Equipment & Services	2.29%	12.29%
Containers & Packaging	2.28%	-2.90%
Gambling	2.24%	-25.48%
Heavy Construction	2.12%	2.65%
Nonferrous Metals	2.10%	7.97%
Commodity Chemicals	2.05%	4.45%
Footwear	2.01%	-2.79%
Transportation Services	1.90%	31.39%
Exploration & Production	1.89%	18.70%
Hotels	1.82%	-1.82%
Industrial Suppliers	1.55%	6.35%
Industrial Machinery	1.55%	5.42%
Home Improvement Retailers	1.48%	2.56%
Computer Services	1.47%	12.68%
Fixed Line Telecommunications	1.44%	-8.98%
Mortgage Finance	1.42%	-31.39%
Electrical Components & Equipment	1.39%	-3.36%
Restaurants & bars	1.35%	-2.09%
Real Estate Holding & Development	1.31%	0.30%
Internet	1.29%	-12.38%
Financial Administration	1.08%	-6.68%
Gold Mining	1.06%	-6.12%
Electronic Equipment	1.04%	-3.10%
Broadline Retailers	1.01%	7.59%
Trucking	0.97%	18.41%
Business Support Services	0.96%	-1.31%
Home Construction	0.93%	-0.23%
Food Retailers & Wholesalers	0.88%	-6.76%
Integrated Oil & Gas	0.86%	-0.29%
Specialty Retailers	0.83%	-5.20%
Water	0.83%	-20.75%
Consumer Finance	0.78%	-0.01%
Multiutilities	0.78%	-3.76%
Computer Hardware	0.77%	-8.29%
Building Materials & Fixtures	0.76%	-1.88%
Furnishings	0.73%	-14.16%
Diversified Industrials	0.69%	-12.83%
Defense	0.63%	1.60%
Marine Transportation	0.52%	3.08%
Pipelines	0.48%	7.63%
Railroads	0.45%	32.81%
Specialty Finance	0.43%	-13.38%
Drug Retailers	0.27%	-1.95%
Waste & Disposal Services	0.25%	9.34%
Personal Products	0.24%	-5.62%
Asset Managers	0.16%	-11.06%
Semiconductors	0.12%	-6.03%
Gas Distribution	0.09%	8.62%
Durable Household Products	0.08%	-8.73%
Real Estate Investment Trusts	0.07%	4.05%
Medical Supplies	0.01%	-2.90%
Life Insurance	0.00%	-7.33%
Telecommunications Equipment	-0.03%	-2.37%
Pharmaceuticals	-0.04%	-12.45%
Automobiles	-0.06%	-14.28%
Software	-0.09%	-10.82%
Electricity	-0.09%	-4.32%
Health Care Providers	-0.12%	-23.39%
Investment Services	-0.15%	-25.65%
Insurance Brokers	-0.16%	-0.67%
Biotechnology	-0.24%	3.03%
Property & Casualty Insurance	-0.25%	-8.35%
Electronic Office Equipment	-0.28%	-11.84%
Nondurable Household Products	-0.32%	-11.70%
Medical Equipment	-0.33%	-1.77%
Food Producers	-0.34%	0.36%
Business Training & Employment Agencies	-0.35%	-5.32%
Aerospace	-0.41%	-7.80%
Media Agencies	-0.45%	1.95%
Tobacco	-0.63%	-3.48%
Broadcasting & Entertainment	-0.67%	1.23%
Publishing	-0.70%	-13.39%
Platinum & Precious Metals	-0.79%	56.21%
Toys	-0.82%	1.04%
Tires	-0.85%	-13.78%
Auto Parts	-0.89%	-3.08%
Recreational Products	-0.90%	-21.48%
Reinsurance	-1.02%	-10.47%
Airlines	-1.11%	-38.35%
Specialized Consumer Services	-1.22%	-10.99%
Banks	-1.24%	-13.69%
Consumer Electronics	-1.51%	-48.20%
Soft Drinks	-1.83%	-7.69%
Distillers & Vintners	-2.21%	-0.79%
Brewers	-2.64%	9.16%
Full Line Insurance	-3.68%	-34.04%

(1) YTD is as of yesterday's date.