Saturday, May 24, 2008

Market Shamanism

E. O. Wilson's, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge, is one of my favorite books.

What can we truly know about the creative powers of the human mind? The explanation of their material basis will be found at the juncture of science and the humanities." (P. 223)

To me, the above is a statement (I really just did open the book--it is sitting atop the piano) sums up my view on many things. It reminds me, too, of the da Vincian principle of Connessione.

NG mentions looking at the commodity intensive, Australian/Canadian markets for clues on the movement of commodities. I'll add Brazil to that list, too. I think that it makes good sense to look for these things--recognizing the connections and relationships. If I were to reflect back on the last 24 months and state what I thought was most valuable from my time as a market observer, I would have to say it is the cultivation of my awareness of the interrelatedness of asset classes.

I know that many pure market technicians display a deep disdain for fundamental issues. However, I'm a good enough chart reader to know that the steep horizontal and vertical drops in a stock's price are not always presaged by technical action. Oh, to be sure, one can go back and point out 'this' or 'that'--but in general, rocket launch and Acapulco cliff dive stock movement indicates surprise.

Developing an intuitive understanding of (inter)market is important. I know that is not the realm of the average investor. That does not mean, however, that the average investor ought to ignore his/her education on some very basic principles on currency, commodities, interest rates and sentiment.

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Perhaps I'm wrong on the following, and I would welcome correction. 'They' say that your asset allocation between stocks/bonds should be predicated by your age. If you are 30, you should have 30% of your assets in bonds. If you are 60...60%. Now here is my observation. Bonds are currently their own bubble world.

Certainly there is a fundamental reason for the incline in bond prices--we were simply in an interest rate cutting cycle. Every investor ought to understand how bonds work: bond prices fluctuate relative to EXPECTATIONS of interest rate movements. I emphasized 'expectations', but I remember quite clearly the goosing on bond prices in expectation of the Fed's ceasing its rate increases. The bond market was wrong for at least 12 months.

We are now at the stage where the Fed has signaled that due to inflationary concerns (read--commodity inflation) it is likely done with cutting interest rates. Well, that to me means that the bond market has topped. Oh, and I should add that bond prices were goosed by the 'flight' to quality, too. So if you are 60 and have 60% of your portfolio in bonds, wouldn't you want to reduce your exposure a bit if there is an expectation that rates will potentially increase and the flight to safety issues are tempering?

I ask this as much as a rhetorical question as anything. Remember that my blog is entitled The Perplexed Investor--and this particular issue is perplexing to me. The title of this post is Market Shamanism. The traditional role of the Shaman is to serve as a 'bridge' between the experiential and supernatural world. The Shaman was the ultimate master of Connessione, for he was an expert reader of 'signs in the natural world. Having an abundant knowledge--handed down from generation to generation--enabled shamans to serve in their revered (sometimes feared) role. If I were a Wall Street expert, I would have a newsletter called The Market Shaman!

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We should all aspire to be market shamans--meaning astute observers of the market. The technicals are the chicken bones that we carry in a special bag. The fundamentals are literally the ground upon which we walk. Though I've not heard the term in this cycle, I'd like to say that we are at an inflection point--and the fulcrum is commodity prices. Whichever way they break, they will rattle our chicken bones AND the ground upon which we walk.


Note: I'm in countdown mode for my dinner party. I will likely not complete the WSS until Monday. Just in doing my shopping (which has taken a cumulative 6 hours over 2 days), I'm reminded that my foot is still in recuperative mode. But, this dinner party fulfills a few of my resolutions. It is also my first foray into Cuban cooking. I'll give a report on Monday.

Sometimes we take things for granted. Here's the definition for Memorial Day from Wikipedia:

United States Federal Holiday that is observed on the last Monday of May (observed in 2008 on May 26). It was formerly known as Decoration Day. This holiday commemorates U.S. men and women who have died in military service to their country. It began first to honor Union soldiers who died during the American Civil War. After World War I, it was expanded to include those who died in any war or military action.



6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Leisa

Thanks for the reference to the article about Alt Energy..

And of Gartman's rules - I always liked rule #13: Do less of what is not working and more of what Is.

With today’s low commissions it is easy to scale into a trade and watch it - then let the trade tell you whether it is working or not.
If it is working add to it (preferably on pullback)- otherwise let it stop out...

Easy rule in principle - in practice though maybe a little tougher psychologically to execute --> we tend to want to 'grab' the winnings - and 'hope' the loser come back.

--

Gold:

Seems to be confounding the experts here...

Dollar is surprisingly still weak - despite all the 'central bank speak' lately...

Anyone know what Weldon says - he's usually pretty good:
http://www.weldononline.com/

Last I heard Gartman went long - says something wrong in the futures market - something is 'up'

Cara as usual playing defense - always want things to fall so he can buy on the cheap (or is worried that the price will be manipulated down etc..)
Though he has been right in the past on many occasions on Gold...

If Euro breaks 160 and holds I don't see how Gold can go down though... Gold is cheap relative to Oil.

But.... Weldon cited an interesting point on gold.
The last time Oil spiked (Gulf War 1990) - Gold went down to everyone's surprise - because after the Oil spike came deflation and a slowing economy.

Gold doesn't do well in inflation or deflation IMO - it does well in environments of Fear or when there is asset inflation (money printing)

Be interesting to see who is right here... I was long Gold but sold once it crossed 930 this week - Euro retraced .68 of its drop...

Maybe we just consolidate between 850-1000 for a while???
Who knows....

--

2nd

Weakness in the Shanghai market has surprised me - people scared to buy in I guess because they are worried about demonstrations against the gov't during the Olympics.

Stratfor ran an article a while back saying the Communist Party was beginning to have problems and there is probably increased social unrest ahead...

I had a look at the Korean Market when they had the Olympics in 1988.
A surprisingly similar situation.
Asian Tigers.... then
a 1987 crash (like recent credit crisis)

The Korean market then recovered and had a strong bounce in June ahead of the Olympics - but then stalled off during the actual Olympics...

If there an ETF that has 2 x exposure to Shanghai?

hope everyone has a great weekend

'nice

Anonymous said...

Yes, bonds are in a bubble. The only undervalued asset class right now is cash. Perhaps you can put hedged equities in there too although
most don't see them as an asset class but as a strategy.

The portfolio rose this week as the model said to hedge on Monday. (The portfolio performance during the rally was only so-so.) We should get a respite soon (Turnaround Tuesday?) and likely additional weakness if the action in the financials is a tell.

Happy Memorial Day! (My birthday!)

Cat

Anonymous said...

GemmaStar-

PFE is yielding over 6.5% according to BigCharts. I do not see anything wrong with this company other than the Street's view that the pipeline is a little thin. Is the belief that it will REMAIN thin forever?

Cat

Leisa♠ said...

Happy Birthday Cat!

jest said...

Leisa-

I agree, bonds have topped and have nowhere to go but down. It seems like a brain dead short for the next 6-12 months...

anon-

I think PFE has some pretty serious issues, along with the entire pharma industry. Yes, the pipeline is that thin and bleak. Most of their earnings are going to evaporate in the next few years, so I can see either of these happening:

1) major increase in P/E due to low earnings, with a stagnant or falling share price.
2) share price falls with the low P/E intact.
3) dividend cuts to keep the payout ratio at a reasonable level.

Anonymous said...

jest-

They are a broken company. Management sees none of this or can't address it. Their shares go one way only.

That is the story. I already heard that. You are telling me nothing that I can't see in what I read or how the stock is being treated. It is the most hated stock on the Street.

Will it be true in 6 months? You don't know and neither do I.

Cat