Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Gary K on the Fly!

GaryK: These are my rapid typing--this is his live show, so I cannot rewind. I would encourage you to always listen to the first 10 minutes of his program. He tapes all shows. Sometimes they are available right after 7 p.m. EDT. You could also listen in the a.m. over your morning coffee. Anyway...the point is that I make no representations as to accuracy:


As you know: follow through in every major index. Leading stocks are commodity based; he is amazed at their strength.

Transports down 175 points. They are at a very important juncture. They've been decently strong off of their lows. I believe odds favor that this high is the last one we'll see. UPS warns. Union Pacific and JB Hunt have broken out and failed.

Retail: I think that retail has hit the wall. BBBY broke down, and down again in aftermarket.

This is one of those days where the market was much worse than a Dow down 50 day. Transports and retail are of import.

Up/down volume atrocious. Neither Dow or S&P have broken above resistance.

I'm just letting you know that today might be an inflexion point. This I'm watching very closely, I want you to watch with me.

If we are in a bear market, this is nothing more than an interemediate term rally of unknown price and duration and it will end badly. Watch on a daily basis and watch for chinks in the armor. We got some chinks in the market for the firs time.

It was a distribution on the Nasdaq and major indices. Watch Retail, transports and financials. If they don't make it, the market does not have a shote. There are just a few too many people embracing this rally. IN all my studies of BM bottoms, none have had such a big embrace as this one has. We take it day by day and see what it brings us.




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Leisa here: As an aside, the strength in the transports has puzzled me. Yesterday I looked at all of the rails and even some put positions. I did not make any purchases though. My FAST puts started very negative today and went positive nicely. I'm going to gird my loins--I may make some partial sales into earnings depending how the stock acts tomorrow.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rails? The mo-mo's decided to push them ever since Buffet started buying. First it was UP seriously outperforming then the sector came along for the ride. Pay no attention to the rails! Totally divorced from fundamentals. This is all part of Le Grande Game being played right now (engineered double bottom, trannies non-confirmation).


Cat

Leisa♠ said...

I agree--but CSX did report some monstrous numbers. You'll remember I declared my thesis on the rails wrong. I made enough off of my CNI put to cover more than cover the moderate loss I had on my BNI puts--but I would have liked it to be a win--win!