DIA/SPY KA-Puts and other Digressions

Well, today is the day that my DIA and SPY puts went kaput. They never recovered any value from my last post presaging their demise. Sniff.

The good news is that my KB has increased 3.47% this week. We'll see how this position develops.

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http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/au/PINDEX.htm

The Cowles Foundation has several erudite papers that some of you may find interesting. I picked up James Tobin's, "Consumer Debt and Spending: Some Evidence from Analysis of a Survey". It's a paper that is older than I am, but it had some conclusions that I thought I'd share. I've used HyperSnap to capture the screen shot. I hope that it turns out. I'm too lazy to type.









We've seen this argument given our tapped out 2006 consumer.





Hmmm......







We have a negative savings rate! [L annotation 12.16.06: see my later post on the savings rate, and whether or not that is just a mythology. What item 2 suggests, then, is that absent looking at other sources of liquidity ( home equity, investment accounts).













So sentiment is dislocated from purchasing decisions?

Of course all of this may be old and outdated, but it struck a chord.