My Commentary on Forecasts

First, as I was writing the Axiom IV was struck by the "nobody knows" language. I've not picked up this book in over a year or so, and I remembered my recent post about "No one knows." I wasn't plagiarizing. I suppose that I was moved enough by my recent experience to write about it, and I Gunther's admonitions were long forgotten.

The reason that I wrote Gunther's speculative strategy was this: I thought he was dead wrong. (Brazen ass that I was). I thought that forecasts did make sense and you could look at the horizon and increase your odds. I was dead wrong and poorer for it. But it was a really good, hard lesson to learn quickly and the braying has long abated. I'm just nodding now in agreement.