"Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly."
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Each of Gunther's chapters ends with a speculative strategy. I'd like to detail the one in this chapter. I'll write a separate post as to why I think that this is important.
"The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won't work. Disregard all prognositcations. In the world of money, which is a work shaped by human behaviour, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Nobody." (Emphasis his). . . The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happne but reacts instead to what does happen.
"Design your speculative program on the basis of quick reactions to events that you can actually see developing in the present. Naturally, in selecting an investment and committing money to it, you harbor hope that its future will be bright. The hope is presumably based on careful study and hard thinking.....But don' let that harden into an oarcular pronouncement: 'It is bound to succeed because interest rates will come down.' Never lose sight of the possibility that you have made a bad bet.
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