Thursday, April 12, 2007

MGIC Investment Corp

MTG reported its numbers today. Their net income fell 43.4%.

I had some puts on MTG which I sold for a 28% gain. While I've done much reading, writing and arithmetic on these companies, in the end, the market will react the way it wants to react. MTG had held such a firm line in the 56.50-57.05 area, there appeared to be alot of support.

They are a mortgage insurer in addition to having subsidiaries with subprime exposure. Most recently Chuck Jaffe thought they were a good value. We'll see about that too in part II of this post.

So, in all honesty, I sit here this a.m. NOT knowing what the stock will do. My expectation is that the stock will tumble, and that I left money on the table. However, my expectations have been unmet for so long (like Carmella Soprano), that it could easily zoom north.

This is a constant perplexion, and given that human behavior is what it is, I needed to write this PRIOR to seeing what market reaction would be.

Part II when I can see the early market.

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