My guiding light in the market is Marc Faber's perspicacious observation: Economic reality and the market's perception of economic reality are two different things. Think of it as two parallel universes and when those universes collide....well, we've seen those examples, and they are not pretty.
We know that things don't matter in the market until they matter. I want to encourage you to not be discouraged about the things that should matter but don't seem to. They'll matter. I also want introduce a tool for you that you may not have considered for organizing your own ideas: a blog.
Do not shudder. You, too, can have a blog--your own personal blog. Did you know that? You can create a private blog, and use the blog as your automated idea retrieval system. You can write your trading notes, your stock ideas, load your charts, create a tickler system, all in an instantly retrievable system. You'll then be able to watch your nascent ideas evolve and capitalize on the opportunity to act on those ideas. Being early or late to a move means we take on more risk. If you organize your ideas, to include your expected timing and assessed risks, you'll be in better control of information and time. That control will lead to better results. You can also do a post-mortem as well.
It is one of those obvious things that isn't so obvious. We know that writing is a discipline to concretize our jumble of thoughts. (Maybe your thoughts are orderly, but mine are jumbled and as readers know, sometimes I undergo a tortuous process for both of us to get it out of my head). But get the stuff out of your head and onto SOMETHING--and something that you can index/organize and retrieve.
We often see stuff that is 'fixin' to get ready' to do something. We note it. Then the move is made; we slap our head; we mumble our coulda, woulda's; we vow to do better.
I'm encouraging you TODAY to make good on that vow. Create your own digitized space. For your eyes only. Use it to upload your charts. Write your ideas. Link to interesting articles.
Having written this, I realize that I've let my own indexing system collapse. One of those housekeeping projects. Only 45 days or so until New Years. I've at least one resolution.