I think that we are starting to see the blood on the streets with the subprime lenders. Today's action was precisely what I have been expecting. Oh, I take no glory in being right, but don't you think that for 99% of the people who only get their news from the main media outlets (to include mainline internet news) they were a little surprised? I'm really trying hard to not become conspiratorial. My Dad is conspiratorial and was telling me all of this "stuff" for years. I just thought he was nuts. But as I read people like Bill Cara and other blogs like Calculated Risk and Mish, I realize that the true story is kicked under the rug--but it starts squirming and wiggling until you trip over it.
I was positioned well for this downturn--but that positioning took me out of most of last year's gains. I was waiting for all of this to happen last year. I was early! I have a feeling that my opportunity cost will dissipate before long. In my retirement account I'm 85% cash, with the balance of the account being in MZZ and FXY equally and a minuscle position in HGRD. I sold my QQQQ puts (DEC 43's) for a 30% gain. I let too many puts get away at 100% losses (from a 155% gain!). I'm going to practice selling early.
I hope that you are fairing well. I thought Ben Stein's article today is worth looking at.
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