Monday, October 06, 2008

Morngin Post

No doubt you are waking up to a financial world in turmoil. Jim Cramer is in outright panic mode--when his show gets canceled on CNBC, we will know that the bottom is finally in. (That is not an original thought on my part. I found this on my blog from August 27, 2007. A simple reminder that I'm not a dolt.

If I had to guess--not that I have any special knowledge, but just for the fruitless task of stating an opinion--I guess that the minute that the market hears some bad news it is going to bolt like a skittish colt again. I don't think for a minute that we've seen the worst of this correction. We have only had investor cognition that the problem in the credit markets really is a problem. Further, if the magnitude is bigger than the market's expectations--and frankly, I don't see much quantification of the magnitude--then that skittish colt is going to hit a yellow-jacket's nest.

This weekend was more event-filled than normal. Unfortunately, I had to put Chloe, my geriatric poodle, down. She's been steadily deteriorating. She was deaf and blind. Her simple, shadow existence was pain-free and revolved around sleeping, piddling on the floor, and eating. Most recently she stopped eating. Yesterday I noticed that her eye had puss coming from it. I suspect that she had an abscessed tooth. She had terrible teeth--apparently a hallmark of poodles.

She hated baths, hated to be clipped and was very particular about her feet. Forget about brushing her teeth. This is a dog that we found in the wild some years ago. She also had two other comrades. One was found dead on the road by a neighbor. My husband, kind hearted soul that he is, buried it and then rescued the other two. We named them Sophie and Chloe. They were the most miserably looking dogs (they are miniature poodles) you could imagine. Scraggly, long nails, detritus in their hair (which continues to grow unless clipped). Sophie was so nasty and smelly I had to take scissors and clip close to the skin as the outside of her coat was a matted mess. But....they were not thin, so obviously they were quite effective in foraging.

These dogs were never able to learn effective potty training. Thank goodness we have no carpet. Sophie met her demise under the tire of my car, running out to greet me. She had done it for years, but this particular time, she ended up under my wheel. It was not a happy day. She died quickly, but not before biting me badly enough through the joint of my left ring finger. I had to go to the hospital and cancel a business trip.

We estimate that Chloe was about 17 or 18. She had a good life, even though she would not submit to the ministrations (grooming) to keep her looking cute. She was a rugged girl from having to fend for herself for however long in the wild. So I buried her under the redbud, next to Greta. I imagine that before my life comes to an end, the red bud will be the hub to the spoke of beloved pet carcasses. Perhaps, even mine (ashes) one day.

Hold onto your hat.


sysin3 said...

So sorry about Chloe. Always a tough time. Best to you.

nice said...

This market is not acting right..

Europe does not have their act together

Every rally is hit hard with selling...

Every rumor of a rate cut or that the Fed will do this or that - is hit with further selling.

Rumors of problems in the corporate bond markets are now starting.

The Fed cannot buy or guarantee everything.

This panic has to stop right away IMO - or there is nothing anyone can do.

So far the market is running on hope - hope that a bottom is in - hope that things will get better - hope that the Fed will do something - hope that there will be a coordinated Central bank action.

Buying 'Hope' usually results in a loss.

Anyways I can't imagine a coordinated Central Bank action - unless 'they' are sure we are near the trough and 'they' can be sure it would work - as it would be their 'last' bullet.

Everyone is trading on TA or oversold RSI signals - and buying.

But when people see that the bottom isn't 'in' - they all sell out, cut their loss the next day - chasing it lower and lower.

This is a liquidation, an unwinding of leverage... where we 'are' on the chart means little.

Todays gap down and close in the top of the daily bar - will no doubt be seen as another bottom - ... could be...

And S&P at 1000 will have brought in buyers.

And the action in the afteroon looked like margin selling.

Many stocks that we already 'taken' down last week - like AGU and RIMM behaved better.

If the market can now focus on earnings - maybe it can find its footing.

With AA down 45% - it will be hard for anyone to sell no matter what the earnings news.

Fundamentally in the intermediate term stocks look cheap now.

It is this liquidation and unwinding that has to stop 1st - then everyone can take a deep breath and realize that the economy is not as bad (yet) as everyone thinks.

I went long but reduced leverage today - something just doesn't smell right - hope I'm wrong and the worst is over...

As this market could wipe many portfolios clean when it is all said and done...

Hard to believe that the market has retraced all the way back to 2004 areas.

How much bad news does the market want to discount?

Are we there yet?