Friday, October 10, 2008

Tontine Partners

I found the following letter from Tontine Capital Partners at Michael Covel's website which you can reach here. Apparently they are liquidating along with many other hedge funds. I saw them mentioned on Real Money, Googled them and found MC's piece.

After reading this letter, I've decided not to self-flagellate any more. Read a bit of it and see if you would let them boil water on your stove much less manage your hard earned doe.


nice said...


This Bill Cara is just too much... LOL

He says today,

"Moreover, who else in the Wall Street Journal, as early as June 2006, was warning of this disaster, while others demanded that markets run free? My arguments were laughed at..."

"Is important that you face up to your naïveté and/or your denial."


I mean he issues all these warnings that the system is collapsing - but then tells everyone to buy at DOW JONES 10400 a few weeks ago?

He said material and commodity related stocks would be best to buy - but the Baltic Index is collapsing and the stocks crashed 30% since his recommendation...

Obviously he trusted the 'HB&B' - so I think it is really himself that was 'naive and in denial'

... never once do I see on that blog the words 'I was wrong' - instead he tends to trumpet the 1 out of 3 calls that worked...

IMO anyone running a blog needs to be accountable...

Now this is a tough market...

In fact most have been consistently wrong:

Ken Fisher
Don Hays
Dennis Gartman
Barton Biggs
Richard Russel (always being whipsawed)
Cramer (until his last call where he cried wolf again but no one listened)

Hulbert has had a pretty good record during this crisis, as has
T Harrison...

Also this money manager at:
Has been consistently right and warned everyone to sell out - even after the market had already dropped 15%


I've been shorting the Resource Commodity type markets in line with the declines in the Baltic Index

However I was also buying on weakness in the US indices(including yesterday)... but got burned a couple times the past 2 weeks on those large opening morning plunges we've been having... ouch!



How to you see things at these levels?

We were near the 2002 cycle lows yesterday... and the large drop has forced shorters to cover and brought in buyers...

Everyone has been quick again to say the bottom/capitulation is in...

I guess the question we need to resolve is:

Was the largest weekly drop in the DOW in history simply:

(a) a mass unwinding - everyone trying to get out at once


(b) An indication of something more sinister unfolding?

Are the stories the media are running now about 'Depression' just cover for a capital market that has blown up (big mistakes made by the bankers) - or are the bankers doing what they usualy do - trying to scare the public at the bottom to buy stocks cheaply and engineer a recovery which they will take credit for...


Leisa said...

Nice: I'm working on a post, but I haven't pulled it together yet. I'm still in the camp of if there is going to be the next bull market, from where will it come.

I posted just now a list of Fidelity's sector funds. The results are disastrous at best.

I have some SSO and DIG exposure, positioning for a rebound. But I don't look to hold on very long.

The wealth destruction has been horrible. The wealth distribution--from hardworking Americans, who save, and conduct their affairs responsibility--really does go from the middle class upwards in the economic food chain. They are counseled to 'stay the course' when in fact their pockets are being unceremoniously picked.