Thursday, October 30, 2008

Chocolate and other things of consequence.

Valrhona is a chocolate provider. I like the Grand Cru from Madegascar. It's a 66% cocoa (bittersweet). It's a lovely chocolate. It's important for you to be exposed to different stuff!

I buy a large bag each year each year to make wonderful chocolate desserts. I also get a big box of high quality milk chocolate too. Together it is about 22 lbs of chocolate.

I sold my last bit of DUG today. I did some Chinese takeout: FSIN, SSRX and WX. Small positions. No stop loss. I do not plan to trade these, but hold them.

My UPW is about .60 from being profitable after falling as much as 22%. Yes, I hung on--but it was in accordance with my plan. This was a hedging position for certain puts that I had. Now those utility puts are gone (at a nice gain). My loss, then was already more than funded .

My son goes to the doc tomorrow. I'm afraid he may be dissappointed---he's thinking that he'll be out of his sling. We'll see. Then we hit the road. Hopefully the market will do nothing too screwy. But I've not much exposure.

Hartford. For those of you who were reading back in April of 2007, I pulled HIG out as the poster child for an insurance company that would be caught up in the systemic risk issues. Yes, wallowing around in minutia of 10-K's has served me well. BUT....I was very early to that trade. It was so obvious that the insurance companies had exposures and Wall Street discounts, right? Just on paper. It took more than 16 months for that fact to inculcate itself into the bee of the brain of Wall Street.

So....if it takes so long for the downside to be realized, then one may reasonably expect that the obverse happens. I'm happy to do as Gary K says, probe. I'm familiar with a great many companies. I bought a few that I'm familiar with today. And, if I want particular exposure to a sector or broad market index, the ETF's are a great way (for me) to do that.

If you do not have a plan for deploying capital, perhaps spending a little time crafting one would make sense. And consider probing. It's time to invoke Musashi:
  • Learn to see everything accurately.
  • Become aware of what is not obvious.
  • Be careful even in small matters.
  • Do not do anything useless.
I'll add a Leisa corollary to that: Thinking without doing is not worth much.
Cigna was clobbered today. Down 22%. Wall Street finally understood that there was no organic growth to be had and that insurers are not recession proof. Again, a long digestion before this thing was blown out of the back end of Wall Street's expectations. I need to remember that the digestion period is quite long at times! Best to wait patiently like a spider. I'm getting better at that.

I'm unlikely to get a post out tomorrow. But to get in the spirit of things, I offer a couple of photos sent by a blog friend.


nice said...

With a lot of banks and other financial firms wrapping up annual finanicals at the end of this month - many may have been completetly out of the market

Thus liquidity dried up and we have had unpredictable swings...
with only intervention buyings coming in...

Hopefully after the election, some of all this liquidity floating around will gradually return to the market to give us some kind of more rational order.

Dr Deflation, Ben B speaks at 2 on 'Mortage Meltdown'


nice said...

Interesting to see non commodity stocks outperforming today...

Bears looked weak as the market did not sell off as Ben B was speaking... nothing new

Last few days at End of month Oct is usually up if been down all month...

Gold stock owners must be feeling pretty sad...

The fact is (thought the gold bugs refuse to admit it) is that gold has been in a monthly downtrend since BSC failure in march...

Gold usually leads with Oil following and it has been no different this time (despite silly bets by Jim Sinclair otherwise)

Gotta respect those trends Jim...

Don Coxe is bullish again already...
In fact almost everyone (except the analysts) are slowly turning bullish..

I'd prefer to see more of
'this rally is going to fail talk'

Nasdaq had higher highs 4 days in a row with closes > open btw

enjoy the weekend all


russell1200 said...

I have been deploying my capital on Christmas presents. Does that count?

Another house of cards with insurance companies is at the re-insurance level. Very opaque, and very unclear as to who is backing up what.