Friday, March 21, 2008

Fed Questions and Gary K recap

The Asian markets received some relief from their relentless down turn. With the Fed's offering the window for more types (read lesser quality) securities, an unprecedented but necessary move, I have to wonder if we are not pimping out our country's balance sheet. Unless the credit markets sort themselves out in some meaningful way, how does this get resolved? You know what I'd like to see? I'd like to see (1) who is going to the window; (2) what they are swapping; (3) how they close their transaction in 28 days. It's public money, so I don't feel that they have any right to privacy.

Forgive my crudeness, but if feels like we are pimping out out our country's balance sheet. Since we are a debtor nation, how do such actions give our foreign bond holders more comfort? I suppose that with the USD strengthening, that makes them feel a bit better, and they will not clamor for higher interest rates.

I'm listening to Gary K's show from yesterday. I've summarized some of his comments at the bottom of this post. His website is in the Info Mosaic.

The WSJ's market data page has a much better sector performance than the Big Charts page. It gives one day performance. I've included the link under 'stock/economic' research sidebar heading.

Many of you know of, and I've mentioned a few here, the Ultrashorts and Ultralongs. These can be very lucrative or very brutal vehicles. I wanted to show you yesterday's brutality:




Gary K regarding yesterday's market (quotes/paraphrased quotes):

  • The market (DOW) had a follow through day, 8 days from the low; Follow through days are simply a characteristic that takes a market that is in a downtrend and turns it into a confirmed rally. This does not mean a new bull market has started. It does mean that every bull market was presaged by a follow through day. But not everyone of these works (7-8/10 work). We've had 2 follow through days in this bear market;
  • The other side of the thesis is important. Leading stocks and leading groups breaking out on heavy volume. There is hardly anything. IF this is going to be meaningful, it will take some time.
  • We've had two follow through days in a bear market.
  • If we get distribution in two days, I'll let you know.
  • Am I in? No.
  • Does not mean that the worst is over or that we do not fumble around.
  • All the commodities have topped; that is one of the reasons why the market will do better.
  • Not a good time to be short.
  • I'm off the bearish stance. (L note: that doesn't mean that he's bullish).
  • Here are some leaders to put on your watch list--he's got caveats most all of these, so listen : MA, WMT, RIMM, PRGO, Urban Outfitters, TJX, BKE, CMG, ISRG, KEX, Priceline, LKQX, R, LSTR, FLS, NKE, OI,
  • You cannot have a bull market with without a ton of leadership.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

This guy is good. Tons better than Dag, who's so locked into his methodology and biases he can't see WTF is happening right in front of him sometimes. GK is definitely worth listening to. Hat tip on his market timing skills.

Best,

Cat

Leisa♠ said...

Hey Cat. GaryK is the best. He tilts much further to the right than I do, so I have to ignore some of his rants at times. Nevertheless, he is hands down the incredibly accurate. I also like the fact that if he screws up, he'll admit it.

He's very much committed to his audience. I first rate fellow in my opinion. I think that I'll start putting his comments here daily.

Anonymous said...

GaryK, Kirk, Hussman. No agendas. Straight shooters. All different perspectives; all incredibly accurate within them.

Ritholtz is in there too but only for subscribers. Not enough meat though and doesn't share as much. I like Tim Wood and Frank Barbera as technicians as well. Random Roger is fine but his writing is foggy and his approach is too relative for me.

There you go. JMHO.

Have a great Easter, L.

Cat

Gemma Star said...

I love the idea of a daily GaryK summary. Sometimes if I'm out for the evening, I get home too late to listen and then never catch up.

Btw, you introduced us to him. Thanks for the tip 'o the hat!

~ GemmaStar

PS: Cat, I agree with you on the trio - GaryK, Kirk, Hussman.

Leisa♠ said...

The meat of Gary's comments can typically be found in the first 10 minutes of his broadcast. Though, toward the end, he gives some stocks that are acting well.

I like the idea of providing summaries too!--It forces me to pay attention.

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah. Put Jeremy Grantham in there as well. And Smithers of Smithers & Co. Outstanding analysis.

JG is chronically "too early" but never wrong. The economist Smithers (Valuing Wall Street) is in his own league.