Monday, June 30, 2008

Daily Sector Sort

Sector/Subsector Day YTD (-1 day)

Mobile Telecommunications 4.66% -25.21%
Pipelines 3.19% 11.77%
Fixed Line Telecommunications 2.70% -20.58%
Coal 2.48% 70.56%
Exploration & Production 2.13% 21.48%
Railroads 2.10% 22.90%
Multiutilities 2.06% -7.70%
Electricity 2.05% -3.72%
Gas Distribution 1.81% 9.78%
Integrated Oil & Gas 1.76% -2.34%
Delivery Services 1.59% -12.45%
Diversified Industrials 1.32% -23.66%
Pharmaceuticals 1.31% -15.99%
Water 1.01% -25.42%
Oil Equipment & Services 0.99% 18.98%
Industrial Machinery 0.96% -3.12%
Personal Products 0.92% -11.17%
Biotechnology 0.79% 5.05%
Medical Equipment 0.65% -3.66%
Medical Supplies 0.63% -3.82%
Iron & Steel 0.56% 30.53%
Aluminum 0.54% -4.05%
Food Producers 0.53% -9.85%
Paper 0.52% -30.19%
Electrical Components & Equipment 0.48% -10.57%
Nondurable Household Products 0.47% -18.12%
Electronic Office Equipment 0.47% -14.82%
Trucking 0.40% 10.65%
Heavy Construction 0.36% 3.47%
Waste & Disposal Services 0.33% 4.57%
Nonferrous Metals 0.30% 7.21%
Media Agencies 0.30% -8.31%
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks 0.24% -10.55%
Defense 0.22% -7.83%
Toys 0.18% -5.53%
Broadcasting & Entertainment 0.07% -10.83%
Electronic Equipment 0.00% -5.78%
Real Estate Investment Trusts -0.01% -2.52%
Distillers & Vintners -0.03% -2.86%
Soft Drinks -0.10% -16.85%
Tobacco -0.12% -9.03%
Brewers -0.13% 16.52%
Health Care Providers -0.18% -32.69%
Commodity Chemicals -0.18% -2.41%
Business Training & Employment Agencies -0.19% -11.70%
Recreational Services -0.30% -29.29%
Drug Retailers -0.32% -7.80%
Building Materials & Fixtures -0.36% -12.53%
Containers & Packaging -0.48% -15.52%
Financial Administration -0.60% -8.74%
Gambling -0.62% -42.54%
Aerospace -0.64% -22.64%
Semiconductors -0.68% -14.08%
Software -0.77% -14.88%
Internet -0.78% -20.14%
Auto Parts -0.80% -18.17%
Broadline Retailers -0.81% 3.83%
Durable Household Products -0.85% -19.04%
Marine Transportation -0.87% -1.94%
Publishing -0.90% -19.08%
Transportation Services -0.95% 24.78%
Real Estate Holding & Development -0.95% -7.38%
Hotels -0.96% -19.06%
Business Support Services -1.00% -1.51%
Restaurants & bars -1.02% -7.22%
Computer Services -1.09% 7.36%
Footwear -1.13% -10.69%
Gold Mining -1.19% 2.58%
Insurance Brokers -1.21% -2.61%
Reinsurance -1.22% -18.79%
Computer Hardware -1.24% -13.79%
Consumer Finance -1.43% -13.85%
Specialty Chemicals -1.45% 7.90%
Telecommunications Equipment -1.52% -11.34%
Food Retailers & Wholesalers -1.54% -10.63%
Asset Managers -1.55% -18.33%
Airlines -1.56% -42.55%
Industrial Suppliers -1.59% -1.96%
Apparel Retailers -1.66% -9.21%
Home Improvement Retailers -1.71% -9.62%
Furnishings -1.91% -22.48%
Automobiles -1.91% -33.69%
Specialty Retailers -1.93% -13.88%
Recreational Products -1.99% -30.67%
Property & Casualty Insurance -2.02% -15.87%
Clothing & Accessories -2.06% -4.34%
Investment Services -2.10% -35.47%
Consumer Electronics -2.15% -51.60%
Tires -2.27% -37.30%
Life Insurance -2.33% -18.15%
Banks -2.37% -32.60%
Specialized Consumer Services -2.65% -14.07%
Specialty Finance -2.89% -21.72%
Forestry -3.95% -28.46%
Home Construction -4.08% -15.55%
Full Line Insurance -4.40% -47.33%
Platinum & Precious Metals -4.66% 32.90%
Travel & Tourism -5.48% -24.89%
Mortgage Finance -6.45% -48.09%
Total number of sectors with data 99 99

Total number of gainers 36 19
Average gain (simple, not weighted) 1.14% 16.46%
Total number of losers 62 80
Average loss (simple, not weighted) -1.52% -16.43%


nice said...


Why are so many bears and long- term defensive types calling for a bounce?

Have we reached a value point?

Or are they getter smarter at covering their shorts?

Or are these types of defensive traders/investors merely trying to call a bottom like they tried to call the top before?

Ultimately I would like to see one of the big papa bulls throw in the towel - or at least admit he/she was wrong.


On a positive note...

The market has been going lower for several days - but we still don't have a lower TICK reading than last Thurs yet.... but so far all positive divergences have been able to do is to create a 1 or 2 day sideways consolidation..
rather than upside...

Bulls neeed the 'Buyers of the world unite' pretty soon here...

A lot of cash on the sidelines...


nice said...

Played the bounce in GM the last few days off the Cramer 'GM going bankrupt' scare - that was 'nice'

AIG is within $2 of a .78 retrace of it's entire bull run move from 1974...

I'm not that great of a stockpicker fundamentally - but sure seems like many stocks are being thrown away with abandon.

While the fear levels are not that high on the VIX - if you could construct a VIX on the non S&P100 companies that are in downtrends - a VIX on these stocks would be skyrocketing...

Recall we are in a split market here IMO - and broad market indicators will take on less and less significance (as 1/2 the market continues to go down and another 1/2 does ok)


nice said...

The market was really reluctant and struggled to close positive.

After the bounce on the GM news etc... futures lagged and program selling was kicking in esp. on DOW

But the TICKS were driving higher and the last hour - probably shorters trying to short the bounce were forced out into the close - don't know why people short when the weekly RSI is 30 - but short they will.

Gold hardly dropped and Gold Stocks were leading today - and Transports lagging - signs that people are still very scared of something - probably all the Iran/Israel talk...

The hammer close though on the S&P will probably draw some buyers and coverers in.

The Daily trend is still in a sharp almost 60 degree decline...

So we try again...
Went long S&P around 1:30 PM

The action in the gold/gold stocks has me 'perplexed' - but it is a 'nice' hedge to keep buying on weakness - in case the downtrend in the broader market continues.

The market seems like a battle now between those that think we are in the 70's and those that think we are in an 'unwinding' situation.

Those like Bill Cara calling for an unwinding type of scenario - expect everything to fall...

A 70's type scenario would imply that the commodity hedges will not fall - even if the market crashes...

Who's right?


nice said...

Attn: OIL Speculators...

OILS been losing its mo the last few days....

here's probably why:

NYMEX is increasing margin requirements on energy contracts effective tomorrow - though they aren't going up by the much...

If we drop - someone is highly leveraged

If we don't see a drop - then it was anticipated.

If we rise - people were waiting for the news before buying - or the Middle East sabre's keep rattling...

"NEW YORK, N.Y., July 1, 2008 -- The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its crude oil and related futures contracts, beginning at the close of business tomorrow.

Margins for the August to December 2008 crude oil, crude oil calendar swap, and crude oil financial futures contracts will increase to $9,250 from $8,750 for clearing members, to $10,175 from $9,625 for members, and to $12,488 from $11,813 for customers. Margins for all other months will increase to $8,750 from $8,500 for clearing members, to $9,625 from $9,350 for members, and to $11,813 from $11,475 for customers.

The margins for the August through December NYMEX miNYTM crude oil futures contracts will increase to $4,625 from $4,375 for clearing members, to $5,088 from $4,813 for members, and to $6,244 from $5,906 for customers. Margins for all other months will increase to $4,375 from $4,250 for clearing members, to $4,813 from $4,675 for members, and to $5,906 from $5,738 for customers.

The margins for the NYMEX MACI index futures contract will increase to $1,817 from $1,742 for clearing members, to $1,999 from $1,916 for members, and to $2,453 from $2,352 for customers."


nice said...

Hedge funds are beginning to drop like flies...

Hedge fund Ritchie Capital another one.. bites the dust..

like most funds they recruit local talent (though I use that word lightly) either from the big B-Schools or from local B-Schools

Then they all pile into the same things...

It works until it doesn't - and now it doesn't!

Maybe looking back 20 years from now - people will read the history books about Hedge Funds - and compare them to the Home Trust schemes of the 1930's

btw the filings are old for the above one - but it owned a lot of banking stocks - including smaller ones...

I noticed a lot of stories circulating tonight about how regional banks are going to be hit next with losses...

Remember this:
Wall Street creates news to explain price movements...

So in fact if these stocks decline - it could be because this fund or others were liquidating - not because of what the Wall Street Journal says...


To be honest I am still very cautious - because there was a huge 50,000 contract liquidiation of the large S&P contract just before the Fed meeting

This is very large...

It could have just been the banks unloading it before end of quarter - but still - why would large commerical bank interest unload such a large amount of S&P contracts?

Perhaps either to get a better (lower) price - or because they needed the money?

In many cases they are privy to something - and their quick liquidation of these contracts could mean they wanted out quick because 'something is going to go down' - IRAN? BANK in trouble?
USD problem? Earnings? who knows...

But I would feel better longwise if I see those contracts put back on in the next few weeks...

Large commercials selling into weakness is rarely a good sign IMHO.


Leisa said...

NG--thank you for your commentary throughout the day. I appreciate your posting. I wished I had more insight to respond thoughtfully.

I'm watching the VIX and I don't see capitulation. Perhaps the bank stocks and related financials have shot their wad. Commodities must come down, right?--they are the feedstock to earnings--if we are to be buoyed higher.

I still marvel at the LACK of hedge fund failures being reported.