Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Stan Weinstein's Rules

I've mentioned here before the terrific book, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.

Why do I like this book so much? Reading it was a bit of a "come to Jesus" event, as he addressed a couple of really bad habits that I have--know that I have--yet continue to indulge. Remember, the definition of "stupid"? It's doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different outcome. I'm not perennially stupid, but after reading this book, I was re-invigorated to expunge these habits from my repertoire.This book is not a book about the more arcane elements of technical analysis, but rather using charts to look at volume/price patterns determine where a stock is in it's life cycle--opportune times to both buy and sell--to protect capital and maximize risk/reward. To me it is using TA at it's very essence to see if there is more buying or selling pressure OR if it is indeterminate.
Here are Stan Weinstein’s rules.They are paraphrased except where noted by quotes. Again, I believe that this book would be a great addition to your investment bookshelf.


Determine overall market direction. Find the strongest sectors.Find the strongest stocks in these sectors.. After scanning the horizon. . .

  • If an investor do most of your buying when a stock is basing (Stage 1) and starts to rise (Stage 2). If you are a trader you want to buy on the breakout and other continuation patterns within this stage.
  • Determine the protective stops (for long/shorts). If they are too far away from the current price, wait for a better setup.
  • Don’t sell stocks in Stages 1 or 3.
  • Don’t buy stocks that are in Stage 3 or 4.
  • Consider selling short when the overall trend is bearish—but use stops
  • Stage analysis applies to all investments governed by supply demand (mutual funds, options, futures, commodities).
  • “Never guess a bottom. Learn the important lesson that it’s better to be late and buy in Stage 2, than to grab a stock that looks cheap but will be 40 to 50 percent cheaper later in Stage 4.”
  • There’s no need to invested 100% of the time.
  • Buy Stage 2 Strength; sell Stage 4 weakness. “In other words, be in harmony with the tape.”
  • “Whenever there is conflict between the price volume action and the earnings, always go with the objective message being supplied by the technical approach.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Leisa said:

"My presumption is that should their be harmony among the leading indicators, time patterns and multiple timeframe trends, then dollars should be actively in pursuit of opportunities (good risk reward); otherwise dollars should be dormant to await such setups"

--

That's exactly the way I see it Leisa...

My time is limited to about 3.5 hours a day for the markets - plus not having large amounts of capital - these rules work best for me - as it allows one to 'run' the money as quick as possible...

Plus I don't have the sharp skills like yourself to do all the Fundamental analysis...

**
Probably the best leading indicator IMO is the futures premium over the cash S&P

Anyone can track this - not just for short term trading but to time entries into swing trades and position trades.

You simply chart the difference between the near term S&P futures contract and the current S&P cash price.

Some data sources provide this as a symbol called PREM

Average it out to smooth out the fluctuations and scale it and plot it so it overlaps the S&P cash price on the same chart.

Divergences in the PREM over several days - usual lead - with the S&P (and your stocks) shortly following the same direction.

--

As far as Multiple Timeframes one can scan the market and just trade/invest in those stocks in which the ducks align on the MA's across 2 or more timeframes - so one does not have to be 'out' of the market ---> but IN that which is moving.

This is far superior IMHO compared to trying to call tops and bottoms.

Becase after all - there is always something trending somewhere... witness FDG since January - the 'ducks' have been aligned on this one for months - that is pure 'active dollars'

...My simple take anyways ...

I appreciate your blog - I'm learning more about Fundamental Analysis... plus 'nice'recipe tips and those furry little animal pics... LOL

nice

Leisa♠ said...

I might have sharp skills, but I've learned that the market cares not a whit about them!

Thanks for the explanation on the S&P futures.

I have to admit with great, great shame that I've not used MA's in the most efficacious ways. I've shorted stocks above the MA and bought stocks below them. In fact, minding the MA is my newest best habit.

R. Donchian had a very simple system: buy when above the 30 day and sell when below. Buy in the uptrend as it pulls back on consolidation to the moving average.

It's deceptively simple--but by no means easy.

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